Ryan Yarbrough is 2-1 with a 4.5 ERA since returning from Triple A, and that’s with a seven run blow up game last outing. Josh Smith is making his second start of the season after being recalled. In his first start of the season he went 3.1 IP and gave up four runs to the Orioles. The Rays are 15-7 as the road favorite, take the Rays.

The total in this matchup yesterday was set at 10 and I felt it was too high. Turns out I was right, as Tampa won 5-1. I feel the same way today. It's the first game of a doubleheader, and while Ryan Yarbrough is more of a reliever by trade, he's gone at least seven innings in his two starts, and his FIP is much more encouraging than his ERA. He's also a groundball pitcher. The Red Sox will likely make this a bullpen game, which should help limit Tampa's offense as well. This total is just too high.