Week 11 College Football odds, predictions: Parlay picks, best bets for SEC, Big Ten, ACC, Big 12, Pac-12 for the weekend of November 12th, 2022

The last time we had a College Football Playoff without Alabama was in 2019. The last time Clemson missed the CFP, before last season, was in 2014. So since college football's final four originated, the two have never missed the playoffs in the same season... until now. After losing in overtime to LSU last Saturday, 32-31, the Crimson Tide are all but officially eliminated. The same goes for the Tigers because the ACC is so bad. Also bad was losing by three touchdowns to a so-so Notre Dame team. I got the LSU spread right last week and said I didn't think the Tide would get past the back-to-back LSU and Ole Miss road games. But wow, I was way off on Clemson and should've taken note of the fishy 3.5-point line, which on paper should've been much higher.

Am I wrong for being kind of excited that we're not going to see either of those teams in the Peach and Fiesta Bowl semifinals this season?

Without 'Bama, Georgia is nearly a lock assuming they beat Mississippi State and Kentucky on the road, and a lousy Georgia Tech team at home. Whatever happens in the SEC Championship Game against LSU (or potentially Ole Miss) is moot for the Bulldogs at that point. It's also a given that the Ohio State-Michigan winner is a shoe-in, but then things get interesting.

If any Pac-12 team among Oregon, USC, and UCLA runs the table, I think they have to be in with only one loss. The Bruins and Trojans face each other in Week 12, while the Ducks should be decent-sized home favorites against a top-20 Utah team next week. It's quite possible that an Oregon vs. USC / UCLA Pac-12 Championship Game is effectively a National Championship quarterfinal matchup.

If TCU runs the table, they're a shoe-in -- but I'm quite confident, as you'll read below, that their undefeated season ends in Austin on Saturday night. So then it would come down to Tennessee vs. the Ohio State-Michigan loser, right? Apparently not. There's a scenario, as weird as it is, that a two-loss LSU team, if they beat Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, could get in over Tennessee. But remember what happened on October 8th: Tennessee 40, LSU 13 -- in Baton Rouge!

Then there's Ole Miss, who, if they beat Alabama this weekend and LSU loses one of their final three regular season games, has a chance to get in the CFP with a 12-1 regular season and SEC Championship Game win over Georgia. However, they would also need an LSU loss in their final three regular season games, as the Tigers beat the Rebels a few weeks back. 

Aren't these scenarios so much fun!? As much as I enjoy the NFL, this is why college football is my favorite sport. As of now, I'll say the Peach Bowl semifinal is a Georgia vs. Tennessee rematch while the Fiesta Bowl is Ohio State vs. Oregon.

On to the picks. After a 6-9 week, I now sit at 71-76-1 on the season. But there was good news as I hit my third SEC parlay and now sit a comfortable +8.95 units in those conference parlays. I'll be picking the featured matchups of the week: 'Bama vs. Ole Miss and Texas vs. TCU plus a couple of Pac-12 totals in the 70s!

Once again, the purpose of this column each week is to find the best parlay bets by conference. I'll try to keep each wager between two and four picks, but the combined parlay of my favorite picks at the bottom of the column each week will be our lottery ticket. If we hit even just one of those all season, it should get us a guaranteed season profit.

All lines are from Caesars Sportsbook.

Make sure to check out Wildcat Country, my Arizona Wildcats podcast with co-host Shane Dale! New episodes out weekly.

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SEC parlay picks

LSU -3 at Arkansas
Missouri-Tennessee Over 56.5
Alabama-Ole Miss Over 63.5
Parlay Odds: +596 (1 unit)

It's crazy that I have a positive ROI on SEC conference parlays despite being one game under .500 in picks. Guess I'm either hit or miss with this conference. LSU-Arkansas may be a trap line considering the Tigers are coming off the awesome 'Bama win and the Razorbacks enter off a home loss to Liberty. Yuck. LSU is playing at a championship contender level now and won't mess it up this weekend against a geographical rival. I'm laying the three points confidently. Tennessee is averaging 53.5 points at home this season. Missouri is 1-7 to the Under in 2022 and there haven't been more than 52 points scored in any one of their games since Week 1. Something clearly has to give. Though Mizzou's defense is legit, the Volunteers have to look impressive to potentially backdoor a trip into the Fiesta or Peach Bowls. I see a 41-21 sort of game here. Stat of the week time: Since 2015, the point totals between Alabama and Ole Miss have been: 80, 91, 69, 69, 90, 111, and 63. This one is going to be a shootout, likely won by Alabama, but I'll gladly bet the Over as one of my favorite plays this week.

Game Record: 3-0 last week, 14-15 overall
Conference Parlay Record: 3 of 10 overall (+8.95 units)

BIG TEN parlay picks

Indiana-Ohio State Over 57.5
Rutgers-Michigan State Under 41
Wisconsin-Iowa Under 35
Parlay Odds: +596 (1 unit)

When I took the Over in the Ohio State-Northwestern and Wisconsin-Maryland games, I forgot to check the weather in advance. All looks well in Columbus this week and the Buckeyes have a lot to prove to the playoff committee after a poor effort, albeit in a win, in Evanston. They score 50+ and rout the Hoosiers, but the Over is once again the play. Now on the flip side, this Rutgers-Michigan State game has all the makings of an ugly, low-scoring affair. The Scarlet Knights are among the bottom-20 teams in FBS in scoring, averaging 19.8 points per game, and that includes a 66-point drubbing of FCS Wagner in September. Look for them to score 14 or fewer and MSU not to exceed 24. I love betting Overs, but I also know it's time to bet an Under when I see a total as low as 35. Sure I tried this the other week with Iowa-Northwestern and failed, but in the last two meetings between these two teams, the totals have been 35 and 34. I wouldn't mind buying the line up to 38.5 or so. But for the purposes of this column, I'll say a 14-10 sort of game is what we'll see on Saturday. Just don't ask me to pick a winner.

Game Record: 0-3 last week, 13-18 overall
Conference Parlay Record: 0 of 10 overall (-11.5 units)

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ACC parlay picks

Miami-Georgia Tech Under 45
Wake Forest -3.5 (+100) vs. North Carolina
Louisville-Clemson Over 51.5
Parlay Odds: +629 (1 unit)

I apologize for my dreadful ACC showing last week, especially with Miami, which clearly didn't show up in a rivalry game. And Clemson wasn't much better against Notre Dame, as mentioned above. I was going to try and avoid picking the Hurricanes' game as they're 0-8 ATS this season, the only winless FBS team in that area. Mario Cristobal has a lot bigger of a rebuilding project than we imagined at The U. But here's a trend we can work with this week: Miami is 0-3 to the Under on the road this season and Georgia Tech is 0-3 to the Over at home this season. Let's just take the safe bet, the Under, and move along. Clemson and Louisville have played seven times since 2014 and the last five meetings exceeded all 51.5 total points. It's a pretty easy call here with weather not appearing to be an issue. This week's first example of 'Somebody knows something I don't' in Week 11 is Wake Forest being a 3.5-point favorite over a one-loss UNC team. The Demon Deacons have played rather poorly the last two weeks, which doesn't inspire more confidence. But as I like to say, there is a reason the hotels are so big in Las Vegas. Give me the home team laying the points in what should be another fun shootout. 

Game Record: 0-3 last week, 12-16 overall
Conference Parlay Record: 0 of 10 overall (-13 units)

BIG 12 parlay picks

Oklahoma State ML (+100) vs. Iowa State
Kansas-Texas Tech Over 64.5
Texas -7 vs. TCU
Parlay Odds: +629 (1 unit)

My thought process before writing this section of the column: Don't make a pick on the Oklahoma State game. And especially don't pick Oklahoma State with the points or straight up. Now here we are. Iowa State isn't good. They lost five straight before beating a bad West Virginia team. Somehow they're favored on the road in Stillwater, even if OSU's quarterback Spencer Sanders is out. I don't get it. The Cowboys bounce back from a few horrendous weeks to get the win. The point totals in Texas Tech's five home games: 73, 63, 71, 58, and 62. In four Kansas road games, the total points have been 97, 78, 94, and 58. I'm comfortable with saying Over 64.5 is a good bet in Lubbock this weekend.

Every week there are lines that just don't make sense. Texas-TCU is one of them. After all, the Horned Frogs are undefeated at 9-0 and in the midst of chasing a College Football Playoff berth. Meanwhile Texas is 6-3 and just inside the top 25. So what gives? As I see it, the oddsmakers know something. They see a TCU team that's ripe for a blowout and I'm going to have to agree. The Longhorns defense is actually pretty darn good and I really don't think much of their in-state rivals'. Something tells me this game is going to be in the neighborhood of 45-21 Texas, so it's an easy decision to lay the points.

Game Record: 2-1 last week, 17-12-1 overall
Conference Parlay Record: 0 of 10 overall (-10.5 units)

PAC-12 parlay picks

Washington-Oregon Over 72.5
Stanford-Utah Under 53.5
Arizona-UCLA Over 77.5
Parlay Odds: +596 (1 unit)

I'm going against our SportsLine projection model on all three of these Pac-12 total picks. It's a risky move, but let me explain my logic for each, and you can do as you please with that info when creating your parlays. Oregon continues to score 40+ in every game since the Georgia Week 1 debacle, but just fell short of the Over last week. Only one fourth-quarter touchdown was scored in last Saturday's 49-10 blowout over Colorado. Since Week 1, Oregon has averaged 48 points per game and on the season, Washington is averaging 38. With no weather issues likely on Saturday in Eugene, I'd be shocked if Oregon didn't score 40+ again and Washington scores less than 30. I feel comfortable with this pick.

The Cardinal offense has disappeared lately, scoring 16, 15, 13, and 14 points in their last four games. Utah isn't giving up more than 14 and I think Stanford holds the Utes under 40, especially considering the Utes want to get a lead, sit on it, and rest players for next week's showdown at Oregon. I've tried to will my Wildcats to better defense and a couple of Under lines against Washington and USC. The final totals in those games were 88 and 82 points respectively. Arizona's defense is arguably the worst in the country among Power 5 teams and it appears that every one of their games will be a shootout. This game will be played at 10:30 p.m. ET so it has 'Pac-12 After Dark' craziness written all over it. Arizona has given up a minimum of 45 points in every Pac-12 loss this year so I'll say that happens again, but I think the Wildcats can make a game of it by scoring 30+ against the Bruins. It's a high total but I'll take my chances.

Game Record: 1-2 last week, 15-15 overall
Conference Parlay Record: 1 of 10 overall (-5.54 units)

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Week 11 College Football parlay picks

LSU -3 at Arkansas
Alabama-Ole Miss Over 63.5
Indiana-Ohio State Over 57.5
Louisville-Clemson Over 51.5
Kansas-Texas Tech Over 64.5
Texas -7 vs. TCU
Washington-Oregon Over 72.5

Parlay Odds: +9142 (0.5 units)
Weekly Parlay Record: 0 of 10 overall (-5 units)

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