Warriors vs. Kings NBA playoffs Game 5 odds, props, trends: Slight spread lean on Golden State despite road woes, De'Aaron Fox will play through injury

Despite a horrific 11-30 road record that was among the worst in the NBA during the regular season and the fact they lost the first two games of their Western Conference series on the road, the Golden State Warriors opened as 4-point favorites for tonight's first-round Game 5 in Sacramento. That's down to -1.5 at BetMGM with Kings star De'Aaron Fox set to play through a fractured index finger on his shooting (left) hand. Click here for model picks. 

Fox said he might miss a week or two if this were the regular season but was going to play in Game 5 no matter what – it's just a matter of pain tolerance. The All-Star went through shootaround earlier today. Fox has been the best player in this series, tied 2-2, averaging 31.5 ppg , 7.0 assists, 6.0 rebounds and 2.5 steals per game. While still technically questionable, Fox props have been posted at books and he's set at Over/Under 24.5 points tonight, which Fox has topped in three of the four games.

At BetMGM, 57% of bets and 51% of money are on the Warriors. The total has dropped from 237.5 to 234.5, and 57% of bets and 54% of money are on Over. At +105 on the moneyline, the Kings are taking 52% of bets and 27% of money.

Golden State posted a 106.2 defensive rating in its two home wins in this series but in the first two games at Golden 1 Center, its defensive rating against the NBA's highest-scoring regular-season offense was 115.4. The Warriors' regular-season defensive ratings were 108.4 (home) and 118.3 (road).

They have won at least one road game in an NBA-record 27 straight playoff series so that's potentially on the line tonight. The Warriors are 14-4 in Game 5s since 2015 but have only played three on the road and are 1-2 in those.

Fox probably would have been among the most-wagered player props tonight if not for his earlier uncertain status. The three most popular so far are: Kings rookie Keegan Murray Under 2.5 made three-pointers (-120), Warriors center Kevon Looney Over 3.5 assists (+110), and Steph Curry Over 32.5 points (-105).

Curry is averaging 31.5 points in the series but only topped 32.5 points in Game 3 at home. He is five points from tying Magic Johnson (3,701) for 15th on the NBA all-time playoff scoring list. Curry has played 138 postseason games, while Magic played in 190. Next up at No. 14 is former Rockets Hall of Fame center Hakeem Olajuwon with 3,755 points. Curry likely will pass him in Game 6. 

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