Western Conference foes square off when the Dallas Mavericks host the Oklahoma City Thunder at 3 p.m. ET on Saturday. For this game, SportsLine consensus lists the Thunder as 2.5-point favorites, while the over/under is 239 (see up-to-date odds for every game this week on our NBA odds page). 

Before making any Thunder vs. Mavericks picks, you NEED to check out the NBA predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model enters Week 16 of the 2023-24 NBA season on a sizzling 51-33 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning nearly $1,700. Anyone following it has seen HUGE returns!

The model knows the Thunder have fantastic defensive credentials. Oklahoma City leads the NBA in turnovers created (15.7) and blocked shots (6.6 per game), and the Thunder are also in the top five in steals (8.2 per game). Opponents are shooting only 45.0% from the field against the Thunder, including 51.1% inside the 3-point arc. On the whole, the Thunder are giving up only 111.4 points per 100 possessions, landing in the top five of the league in overall defensive efficiency. 

The model also knows the Mavericks have one of the game's best players in Luka Doncic. In the last seven games, Doncic is averaging 39.9 points, 10.4 assists, and 10.3 rebounds per game while shooting 52.3% from the field. He leads the NBA in scoring, averaging 34.6 points per game. Doncic also produced 36 points, 18 assists, and 15 rebounds in the first matchup between these two teams in 2023-24.

Now, it has set its sights on Thunder vs. Mavericks. We can tell you the model is leaning Under the total, and it also says one side of the spread hits in almost 70% of simulations! You ABSOLUTELY need to see it before locking in any NBA picks.

Who wins Thunder vs. Mavericks? And which side of the spread hits in almost 70% of simulations? ... Join SportsLine right now to find out which side of the Mavericks vs. Thunder spread you should be all over Saturday, all from the model on a roll on NBA picks!