Sportsbooks rooting heavily for Clemson over LSU in national championship game

Even though Clemson is on a 29-game win streak and is the defending national champ, bettors across the United States are hammering top-ranked LSU for Monday's national championship game in New Orleans – perhaps in part because it's a de facto home game for LSU with the Mercedes-Benz Superdome only about 80 miles from Baton Rouge.

Currently, the SEC's Tigers are 6-point favorites on the college football odds over the ACC's Tigers.

John Murray, Director of Race & Sports at the Westgate LV SuperBook, said the biggest bet his book has taken as of Thursday evening was $55,000 to win $50,000 on LSU -4 "shortly after we put the number up after the Clemson-Ohio State game."

Murray added that currently it's the most lopsided action he can remember for a national championship game, but "the public firing away on a favorite in a high-profile football game is hardly unusual. … LSU would be a pretty good-sized loser for us right now, but we don't know just how big it can or will be until we see the NFL results from Saturday and Sunday. If the favorites all win this weekend, the moneyline liability rolling to LSU on Monday night will be very, very high."

Entering the College Football Playoff semifinals on Dec. 28, Clemson was projected as a slight favorite over LSU for the title game. However, LSU trashed No. 4 Oklahoma 63-28 behind seven touchdown passes and a scoring run from Heisman Trophy winner Joe Burrow in the early semi. In the nightcap, No. 3 Clemson was given all it could handle by No. 2 Ohio State with the TIgers rallying from a 16-0 second-quarter deficit to win 29-23.  

Some sportsbooks opened LSU as low as -3.5 but that is now up to -6 nearly everywhere with bettors all over Burrow & Co. Clemson, it should be noted, has won nine of its past 10 vs. SEC teams and has covered 10 of its past 11 bowl games overall.

Doug Castaneda, the Director of Race and Sportsbook Operations at the Wynn in Las Vegas, had this to say via email: "We've had considerable interest on the Bayou Bengals indeed, but the majority of that action on LSU has been at the -5.5 number. Since settling down at -6, where it resides right now with us, we've had balanced action on the championship game."

It's the first time since last year's national title game that Clemson is an underdog. In the past seven title games, underdogs are 3-4 straight up but 5-2 against the spread. Clemson is 2-1 straight up in those games and has covered all three after blowing out Alabama in January 2019.

"It hasn't been a one-sided affair, though," Castaneda wrote. "A significant surge of moneyline action came in strong on Clemson after we opened them +200. So, with lots of time left still, our current position on the game is with LSU winning, but not to cover. As far as future wagers, we are in solid position to win with either school. With Clemson winning, we hold a more sizable win than with LSU."

LSU obviously will have the majority of fan support in its backyard – one ticket expert predicted around 65 percent of the fans will be rooting for the Bayou Bengals.

Murray wrote in an email that "the de facto homefield advantage for LSU is definitely a factor, but the main reason is the public always bets on what they just saw and they just saw LSU roll Oklahoma while Clemson struggled with Ohio State.

"It reminds me of the Denver/Carolina Super Bowl (50). Denver barely escaped New England in the AFC title game and then Carolina rolled Arizona to win the NFC Championship. Carolina ended up being a much bigger favorite in that game than people thought they would be and perhaps a bigger favorite than they should have been."

The Panthers were -4.5 for Super Bowl 50, but the Broncos won 24-10 in what would be Peyton Manning's final game.

The spread reaching LSU -7 was called unlikely by Murray. He added that the action on the total (69.5) has been pretty even but that the book expects to be needing the Under by kickoff because the public likes to bet on offense.

Patrick Eichner, Director of Communications at PointsBet sportsbook, echoed the fact that Clemson winning is the best result for his book but: "We're in a good position no matter the outcome, as Ohio State represented our biggest liability by some measure on the futures market. Clemson is nonetheless our best result, both from an outright standpoint and for the game itself – currently over 80% of the tickets and about 75% of the money have laid the points with LSU.

"We've seen a steady stream of LSU action since open, with 17 of our 20 largest bets on the side currently backing Joe Burrow & Co."