Saquon Barkley gets new deal, reports to training camp: Giants' Week 1 odds vs. Cowboys slightly improve with Pro Bowl tailback now set to play

We had some big early-morning news in the NFL as the New York Giants and Pro Bowl running back Saquon Barkley have agreed to terms on a one-year deal worth up to $11 million that will end Barkley's holdout -- was unhappy at the prospect of playing on the franchise tag in 2023 -- and he has reported to camp. Barkley had talked about missing regular-season games and some sportsbooks had the Giants as high as +4 at home for Week 1 vs. Dallas, but with Barkley in the fold that number is generally down to +3.

Barkley would have made $10.09 million playing on the tag this year. With this reworked contract, he gets a $2 million signing bonus and $1 million in incentives paid for reaching 1,300 rushing yards, 11 touchdowns and 65 receptions (equal amount paid for reaching each benchmark). Art Stapleton of NorthJersey.com reports that those incentives are all contingent on the Giants making the playoffs.

The 26-year-old ranked fourth in the NFL with a career-high 1,312 rushing yards last season (fourth in NFL and most by a Giant since Tiki Barber in 2006), ran for 10 touchdowns (T4 NFL) and tied for the team lead with 57 receptions. His 1,650 yards from scrimmage were seventh in the league.

The team reportedly can still apply the franchise tag on Barkley next offseason should it choose. That would be worth $13.2 million in 2024. According to ESPN's Mike Tannenbaum, a player getting more money on a one-year deal like Barkley will for this year is extremely rare. The last time it happened was in 2005 when the Colts gave future Hall of Fame running back Edgerrin James the ability to earn more money on a one-year deal in incentives.

Veterans report to Giants camp today, so Barkley won't miss any time. Players who don't sign the franchise tender, which he hadn't (and neither has 2022 NFL rushing leader Josh Jacobs of the Raiders) can't be fined for missing camp or the preseason. Jacobs' camp surely will use this added money on Barkley's deal to get their client some extra cash, as he has threatened to hold out into the season as well.

Now that Barkley will be good to go Week 1 barring something unforeseen, his over/under season totals have been reposted at the book: 1050.5 rushing yards and 8.5 rushing TDs. He's +1500 to lead the NFL in the first and +2000 for the second.

As for Week 1, the SportsLine Projection Model forecasts Barkley to finish with 14 carries for 66 yards and 0.40 TDs. He carried 25 times for 120 yards and two TDs last year vs. Dallas with eight catches for 58 yards. The Giants lost both games but were 13-4 against the spread last season, the best record in the NFL, including going 10-2 ATS as underdogs.

Giants quarterback Daniel Jones has 44 passing TDs and 17 picks in 61 games with Barkley, good for a rating of 91.4. In 33 games without Barkley, Jones has 16 TDs and 17 picks for a rating of 77.3.

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