Rutgers vs. Michigan Big Ten Tournament odds, bracketology: Loser's NCAA Tournament hopes in massive jeopardy

A wildly inconsistent season for a talented Michigan team may come to a head Thursday afternoon when the eighth-seeded Wolverines face ninth seed Rutgers in the Big Ten Tournament in Chicago. Michigan is very much on the NCAA Tournament bubble – as are the Scarlet Knights, for that matter – and a loss would all but end the losing team's chances of going dancing. Michigan is a 2.5-point favorite. Click here for expert pick. 

The bracketology published by CBS Sports' Jerry Palm and ESPN agree on a lot, but they differ on these programs. Palm doesn't have Rutgers among his "First Four Out." Regarding Michigan, the Wolverines are in Palm's "Last Four In" and in the First Four against fellow No. 11 seed Utah State. ESPN has Michigan in its "Next Four In," and Rutgers is among the "Last Four In," ticketed for the First Four game against fellow No. 11 seed Nevada.

Via NCAA NET Rankings, Rutgers is No. 42 and is 5-6 in Quad 1 games. Michigan is No. 54 and 3-11 in them. Advantage, Scarlet Knights. However, there's no way the selection committee could justify letting Rutgers in over Michigan if the Wolverines sweep the season series – which they would with a victory today.

On Feb. 23 in New Jersey, Michigan beat Rutgers 58-45, rallying from an early 10-point hole. Star Wolverines big man Hunter Dickinson had 13 points and 11 rebounds, and Dug McDaniel contributed 16 points and five steals. Michigan was without second-leading scorer Jett Howard, coach Juwan Howard's son, but he's healthy now. Jett Howard is four made 3-pointers shy of setting the Michigan freshman record of 80, established by Nik Stauskas 10 years ago.

Michigan is 1-2 since that Rutgers win, with all three games going to at least one overtime. The last time Michigan had three straight overtime games was 43 years ago during the 1979-80 season with four in a row (2-2).

The selection committee does take injuries into account, and Rutgers is 2-6 since losing forward Mawot Mag to a season-ending injury on Feb. 4. The junior forward averaged 7.8 points, 5.3 rebounds and 1.1 assists in about 25 minutes per night.

This is the first-ever Big Ten Tournament meeting between the schools. They were set to play in 2020 but both teams were called off the floor during pregame warmups, as the event was eventually canceled due to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. The winner faces regular-season champion Purdue on Friday.

One might think the Boilermakers are taking heavy action at Caesars Sportsbook to win the tournament as +200 favorites, but they have drawn only the ninth-most money to win, even behind Nebraska. Michigan is +2000 and Rutgers off the board because it's in New Jersey. 

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