Projected score for Chicago vs. Dallas

The Chicago Bears are clinging to life in the NFC playoff picture at 6-6, but with the Vikings two games ahead of them at 8-4 for the last NFC Wild Card spot and the Rams also in front of them at 7-5, the margin for error is slim. On Thursday Night Football, Chicago will host the Dallas Cowboys in a must-win game for both sides as Chicago looks to keep pace with the rest of the conference and Dallas (6-6) looks to hold off the Eagles (5-7) in the NFC East.

The Cowboys are three-point favorites on the road for the 8:20 p.m. ET kickoff from Soldier Field on Thursday Night and the over-under is down to 42.5 from 44. So which team with its back against the wall will come out on top on Thursday?

The Bears have to feel as confident as they've been all season thanks to Mitchell Trubisky's best performance of the season on Thanksgiving against Detroit. Trubisky threw for 338 yards and three touchdowns to help Chicago engineer a comeback from down 17-7 in the second quarter. It was the first time all season that the Bears surpassed 400 yards of total offense and they'll need to keep that momentum rolling on Thursday.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys are coming off a gutting 25-16 loss on Thanksgiving to the Bills that has Jason Garrett facing constant questions about his job security entering Week 14. And with the Cowboys ranking No. 1 in total offense, No. 8 in scoring, No. 8 in total defense and No. 8 in scoring defense, it's worth wondering what exactly is holding the Cowboys back. However, they're leading their division still and Dallas has to avoid all the distractions with a seat at the playoff table potentially changing everyone's fortune.

The SportsLine Projection Model has simulated every Week 14 game 10,000 times. Below is a simulation of Thursday Night Football, with projected final scores and statistics. Projections for all games are updated every 10 minutes.

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DALLAS COWBOYS AT CHICAGO BEARS, 8:20 P.M. ET

SportsLine Projection Model's score: Bears 19, Cowboys 18

Vegas line: The Cowboys are favored by 3 points (O/U 42.5, down from 44)

Projected Statistics: Mitchell Trubisky throws for 210 yards and 1.30 touchdowns with 0.81 interceptions. David Montgomery rushes for 52 yards and 0.51 touchdowns. Allen Robinson catches 5.4 passes for 67 yards while Anthony Miller has 3.9 receptions for 51 yards. Meanwhile, Dak Prescott throws for 261 yards and 1.20 touchdowns with 1.00 interceptions. Ezekiel Elliott posts 99 yards from scrimmage and Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup post 66 and 65 yards receiving, respectively.