NFL Week 6 picks: Why Giants will cover, and more best bets against the spread from Las Vegas SuperContest expert
While I'm looking to bounce back from a rough week in my contest picks, we're still sitting around 60 percent on our success rate over the first five weeks, with records of 14-11 and 14-10-1. Picks I liked early in the week like the Bills, Titans and Saints fell by the wayside as lines moved and eventually were locked in at numbers I didn't exactly love, and rather than stick with them, I fired on teams like the Jets and 49ers instead. Luckily I can't take either this week, with both teams on a bye. This week, there are again some teams I liked early in the week at better numbers, which we locked in on SportsLine but aren't available for the contest, though I'm going to stick with a few of them after seeing how last week played out.
I've been SportsLine's No. 1 NFL expert over the last four years, going 354-292-22 against the spread in particular during that stretch. I've also delivered a 57.1 percent hit rate on my SuperContest picks over the last six seasons, which is exactly what you're getting below. And that run includes two finishes in the money, including finishing 18th out of 2,748 entries back in 2017.
If you're a SportsLine subscriber, you can get all my picks, which in a typical NFL week number in the double digits, at the same time as I make them by downloading the app and signing up for alerts on my expert page. That's crucial, as you might not have access to the same lines from the Las Vegas contests, which don't move after they're posted mid-week. This week, I'm rolling with a banged-up offense that will nonetheless have its most important player: the New York Giants +9.5 vs. the Los Angeles Rams.
This line was set with the expectation that Daniel Jones wouldn't be able to come back after suffering what looked like a nasty concussion in last week's game, but things started trending toward him playing midweek, and he escaped Friday without a final injury designation. That's huge, as I make this game Rams -7.5 with Jones available.
As for New York's other injuries, I'm not concerned with not having Saquon Barkley or Kenny Golladay. Barkley is a talented but replaceable piece in this offense, and Golladay's absence is stemmed by the Giants having Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton for this game. If Kadarius Toney can play after being limited in practice all week, Jones will have a good enough group of weapons to have success against a Rams defense that hasn't been as impressive as usual this year.
The Giants offense could also get a boost if Andrew Thomas is able to return at tackle, as like Toney he's been limited all week and is questionable for the game. Even without Thomas and eventually Barkley last week, the Giants were able to remain competitive with the Cowboys until Jones exited the game and things fell apart in the second half. With the quarterback under center for the G-Men here, they shouldn't be this big of underdogs at home.
Get the rest of my SuperContest picks and my Circa Million picks below, including a struggling underdog I think can win outright.
So which teams should you back in Week 6? And which big underdog keeps it close?... Join SportsLine right now to see who you should back in Week 6, all from the expert who keeps crushing the world's most prestigious handicapping tournament!
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