We were very right when it came to avoiding the Browns as a teaser option last week, and very wrong when we had the Lions as our top teaser leg. For those who smartly avoided teasing that Thursday game, our next three legs were all winners, with two of them (Texans, Bengals) needing the teased number.
This week, there's probably going to be some interest in backing the Chiefs in teasers and only needing them to win their game, but I would avoid going that route. For starters, the Packers have one of the best home-field advantages in the league, and the Chiefs have had some scares on the road this year against worse teams, including struggling early against the Raiders last week and nearly losing to the Jets earlier in the season. The Packers are an improving team right now, and it's possible they give the Chiefs some trouble in this game.
But the main reason not to tease the Chiefs is that you're not getting a good value to do it, even on -120 teasers, with the line at Chiefs -6. At that point, you're just taking them to win the game, and if you think that's going to happen, you should be betting a money line of -250, which is available in the market. At that number, you have to be right about 71.5% of the time to profit, while legs on -120 two-team teasers have to be right about 74% of the time. Always remember that you're looking to get through Teaser Alley on both teams you're targeting for a teaser.
If you've read my other content or followed my picks, you likely already know I've been SportsLine's No. 1 NFL against-the-spread expert over the last six years, going 535-450-30 against the spread to put me up more than 35 units on those picks at SportsLine since 2017. When it comes to teasers, we stress focusing on the options that go through Teaser Alley and ideally lining up with sides you already like against the main number.
If you don't know what Teaser Alley is, read on to find out. Even if you do, I'll go through every game where I believe there's a teaseable number, give you my analysis of whether it's worth putting in our bucket of potential plays, and then ranking those plays at the end, with the top two representing the best teaser play you can make this week. But if you disagree with any of the analysis for those two teaser legs, you have all the info you need to find other teaser-worthy options.
Now let's get to the teaser legs I do think are worth considering.
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