NFL Week 13 betting recap: Inside the week's biggest upsets, best bets and how it all affected the Week 14 lines
Sunday might have not been your favorite day of the NFL season, but it was unmistakably Favorites Day.
Counting the Thursday Night game, favorites have gone 10-4 against the spread in Week 13, as well as 12-1-1 straight-up. Prior to Week 13, underdogs were rolling at a 55.7% rate ATS.
It's become a 'dogs-eat-faves league, with favorites rarely enjoying a winning ATS week anymore. This week has unwound in their favor, as well as for their wagering supporters.
Top 'Dogs
This one's easy. The winner by default as the only side to accept points Sunday and come out ahead was Cincinnati. The Bengals got just 2.5 against Kansas City, but they have no challengers for the recognition.
Denver came mighty close and would have been the runaway top underdog. The Broncos held Baltimore to three points until less than a half-minute remained. The Ravens finally found the end zone for a 10-9 win as 8.5-point favorites.
Bad Beats
When a game goes to overtime and it's sitting right on the total's number, Over players are cautiously confident. Surely one team can score during the 10 extra minutes.
Or not. The Commanders and the Giants never untangled their 20-20 tie as a game-ending 58-yard field goal fell short. The total opened at 42 before settling in at 40. Nobody in the Over camp cashed, though some got the consolation of a push.
Two more totals scenarios meet our bad beats standards.
Green Bay led Chicago 20-19 and was approaching run-out-the-clock mode with two minutes left and the ball close to midfield. Then the Packers handed off to Christian Watson — yes, a wide receiver who had not carried it all day. Forty-six yards later, it was 26-19, and Green Bay converted a two-point conversion. The 47 points surpassed all possible bets in the totals range of 43.5 to 45.5.
Kansas City and Cincinnati had combined for 51 points in a projected score-fest and were within easy range of the 53.5 total. But the Chiefs missed a field goal with 3:24 remaining. The Bengals marched to the K.C. 14, then took two kneel-downs to eat up the final seconds.
The New York Jets (+3) had two chances to reward their ATS backers. Trailing by five, the Jets were perched with second down at the Minnesota 1-yard line just after the two-minute warning. Three players netted zero yards. New York forced a punt and motored to the Minnesota 32. Then came three incompletions and an interception on quarterback Mike White's 57th pass attempt, preserving a Vikings cover in a 27-22 finish.
How The Books Fared
Customarily, a winning week for favorites means a losing one for sportsbooks. The public tends to play the likely winners. This time, the books did not get burned and, in fact, some emerged slightly in the black, according to ESPN.
One that survived Favorites Week was Caesars. The most popular ATS play was Tennessee at +4.5 against Philadelphia, with about nine of every $10 on the Titans. The Eagles waltzed 35-10.
A totals outcome helped the bottom line. The most heavily played was the K.C.-Cincy Over.
ESPN quoted Caesars assistant director of trading Adam Pulled as saying, "Even with all the favorites, we still made it out of the afternoon games with our head above water."
Week 13 Line Moves
A pair of QB injuries motivated of the biggest moves.
Pittsburgh flipped from +3.5 to -1.5 against Baltimore with the Ravens' Lamar Jackson (knee) on the mend. After Jimmy Garoppolo (foot) of San Francisco was scratched for the season, the 49ers shifted from -5.5 to -3 against Tampa Bay.
Dallas' drilling of Indianapolis on Sunday night has pushed its line against Houston up two points to 16.5. The Cowboys could go off as the season's most lopsided favorite.
Seattle's narrow win over the depleted L.A. Rams did not impress the public. The Seahawks are -4.5 against Carolina, shrunken from -7.
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