A nice 4-1 week in the SuperContest coupled with going 3-2 in Circa Sports Million has us trending up with best bets, but we're getting to the point of the season where we need picks not only to hit, but not be very popular with the rest of the field when they do. For that reason, I'm avoiding using a pick I really like in Cowboys-Chiefs in either contest, even though I consider it one of the five best plays of the week. You can still see that pick along with everything I like on my SportsLine expert page.

I've been SportsLine's No. 1 NFL expert over the last four years, going 354-292-22 against the spread in particular during that stretch. I've also delivered a 57.1 percent hit rate on my SuperContest picks over the last six seasons, which is exactly what you're getting below. And that run includes two finishes in the money, including finishing 18th out of 2,748 entries back in 2017.

If you're a SportsLine subscriber, you can get all my picks, which in a typical NFL week number in the double digits, at the same time as I make them by downloading the app and signing up for alerts on my expert page. That's crucial, as you might not have access to the same lines from the Las Vegas contests, which don't move after they're posted mid-week. This week, I'm jumping on a team that looks like one of the worst in football: the Houston Texans +10 vs. the Tennessee Titans.

Tyrod Taylor looked awful in his return from injured reserve last week, completing less than 56 percent of his passes and throwing three interceptions against an improving Miami defense. We know he's better than that, from what he showed early in the season to how he's performed throughout his career. Even great quarterbacks can struggle in their first game back from a long-term absence; just look at Russell Wilson's shutout against the Packers last week.

Taylor's mission in this game will be to avoid awful turnovers that make things easy on the Titans offense, which has not played well the last two weeks after losing Derrick Henry to a long-term injury. The Titans had just 194 yards in a blowout win over the Rams after Matthew Stafford gifted them two TDs on horrendous passes, and then managed only 264 yards last week but got the benefit of questionable officiating that directly led to seven points in the first half. They ultimately won by two and would've lost if the Saints kicker could hit his extra points.

As bad as Taylor played last week, the Texans defense acquitted itself well, generating five turnovers of its own and holding the Dolphins offense to just 262 yards. You might chalk that up to the Dolphins having a bad offense, but what exactly do call a Titans offense down Henry and Julio Jones? The running game offers zero threat, and pass defenses only have to worry about A.J. Brown making explosive plays whenever Tennessee has the ball. I get why the Titans are 10-point favorites -- they are the No. 1 seed in the AFC right now, after all -- but the recent output of their offense makes them a clear fade team for me this week.

Get the rest of my SuperContest picks and my Circa Million picks below.

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