Fantasy Football Week 8: Stats that matter when setting lineups, including Tank Dell's potential eruption spot
Fantasy expert Jacob Gibbs provides one key thing to know about every team playing in Week 8.
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If you're starting your Fantasy football draft research or scouring the Internet for Fantasy rankings, you need to see what SportsLine's highly-rated expert Jacob Gibbs has to say. Gibbs uses a data-driven approach that has helped him consistently provide accurate rankings at every position. He has proven to be one of the nation's most accurate Fantasy rankers in recent years -- posting the eighth-most accurate results over the past few seasons, according to Fantasy Pros.
Now, Gibbs has projected every team's stats and shared his findings for Week 8 of the 2023 season. He provided the most important research note that he found for every team and matchup to help those setting Fantasy football lineups, building DFS lineups, or placing sports bets.
One player Gibbs is especially high on: Texans rookie Tank Dell. The Panthers have been an easy defense to attack at all levels of the field, but a few specific tendencies stood out as clear positives for Houston's rookie QB-WR pairing. You NEED to see Gibbs' analysis before you lock in your lineup.
So who are the best under-the-radar players to start in Week 8? And which under-the-radar tight end could explode this week? ... Join SportsLine here to see Jacob Gibbs' analytics wraparound, all from one of the nation's most accurate experts as graded by FantasyPros!
In this space, I'll provide game information and one key takeaway that I found when researching that matchup. Each team's implied point total and rank will be in parentheses.
If you have further questions about any team or situation for the upcoming week, please feel free to hit me up on Twitter. If I don't see your initial message, you can find me on Thursday nights and Sunday mornings, when I set aside time to answer questions on Twitter. If you turn on Twitter notifications for my account, you'll have a great chance of catching me when I'm available for questions.
Here's what stood out to me as I looked ahead to Week 8.
Over/Under -- 43.5 points (opened at 47, meaning bettors have hit the under this week)
Commanders (18.25 points) -- So far this season, 76% of Philadelphia's opposing targets have gone to the first-read, according to the Fantasy Points Data Suite. That's the fifth-highest rate. Philadelphia's situation-neutral (score within six points) opponent pass rate (63%) is the third-highest in the NFL. These two factors in combination have led to a lot of Fantasy points for opposing WR1's. Terry McLaurin went for 8-86 receiving on 10 targets vs. the Eagles in Week 4.
It was a slow start after a preseason toe injury, but McLaurin has looked like the stud receiver that we know and love over the past month.
Eagles (25.25 points) -- The Commanders opponent first-read target rate is 74%, just behind Philadelphia. Washington's defense has also been a bit of a pass funnel, with a situation-neutral opponent pass rate of 58% (11th). Washington's situation-neutral average depth of target (aDOT) is a league-high 10.9 yards.
Opposing offenses have chosen to attack Washington with aggressive downfield passing, and they have found success. Washington's opponent passer rating on deep passes (15+ air yards) is the second-highest.
A.J. Brown went for 9-175-2 receiving on 13 targets vs. this defense one month ago, and he could do it again in Week 8. Brown has taken an even larger share of Philly's receiving volume in his second season with the team and is a threat to finish as the top scorer in Fantasy on any given week. In a matchup perfectly built to facilitate it, another eruption could be coming.
It's also possible that DeVonta Smith gets his season on track in this spot. In 2022, Smith aDOT (9.7 yards) was notably shorter than Brown's (12.1). In 2023, Smith's (12.6) is right in line with Brown's (13.2) as both receivers have been used as field stretchers and Smith has lost out on some of the layup routes that he saw in 2022. Overall, that's not been good for Smith's Fantasy value. But against the Commanders, downfield opportunities have been gold.
How I'm approaching this game:
D'Andre Swift has really slowed down after a torrid start to his Eagles tenure. Swift rushed for 305 yards and avoided a tackle on 34% of his rush attempts in Weeks 2 and 3. Over his past four games, Swift has rushed for 206 yards and posted an avoided tackle rate of just 8.9%. That stretch began with just two avoided tackles and 56 rushing yards on 14 attempts against the Commanders in Week 4. Washington has the fourth-lowest missed tackle rate on the year.
Theoretically, I like Swift as a contrarian leverage play off of the Eagles pass game pieces. He hasn't seemed to have the juice lately, though, and his upside ultimately feels capped by the lack of red zone involvement. At the beginning of the week, I was toying around with using Swift as one of my primary running backs for tournament play, but I don't actually expect to have much exposure to him the more time that I've spent with the Week 8 slate.
The Eagles could look to work the ball into Smith's hands in this spot, but they kind of have been doing that and not found a ton of success. Where they have found success is, of course, when feeding A.J. Brown. In DFS, I'm doing my best to be overweight on Brown relative to the field.
Hurts-Brown-McLaurin stacks are likely to be popular, and for good reason. If you want to get a bit more contrarian, you could replace Brown with Smith or include both Eagles receivers.
Over/Under -- 43.5 points (opened at 41.5)
Colts (21.25 points) -- The Saints rank fourth in man coverage and third in press coverage use. When facing man coverage, Josh Downs has a 26% target per route run rate to Michael Pittman's 22%. When facing man with Gardner Minshew at QB, Downs' rate rises to 27%, while Pittman's falls to 20%. Neither receiver has been efficient vs. press coverage, but Downs does have a higher yard per route run rate (1.40) than Pittman (0.86) when pressed.
Another fun Downs note: the Saints have the highest opposing slot target rate in the NFL.
Saints (22.25 points) -- The Colts are the only team to rank in the top ten in both opponent deep pass attempts per game and opponent deep pass completion rate. Gus Bradley's Cover-3-heavy scheme (60% Cover-3 usage, by far the highest rate) offers more one-high safety looks than most and is one to attack down the field. That's great news for Chris Olave, whose target per route run rate rises to 29% vs. Cover-3 up from 21% vs. any other coverage scheme.
How I'm approaching this game:
I want to just avoid the Saints entirely. The Derek Carr experience has been beyond annoying. But, this Colts defense really presents well for Olave, who also happens to be priced down to $6,400 on DraftKigns. Running backs have not been targeted at a high rate vs. Indy -- 35 yards on five targets for Tyjae Spears marks the highest receiving totals vs. the Colts -- and more single-high safety looks (plus 10 days of rest) could make the decision to push the ball downfield to his playmakers more palatable for Carr.
Olave is lining up to be one of my highest-exposure players for tournament builds, and you can bring it back with Downs on the Indy side if you want to get more exposure to this game. For what it's worth, this is one of the few games that has had its over/under bet up throughout the week.
Over/Under -- 41 points (opened at 41.5)
Steelers (19 points) -- In Week 7, George Pickens gave us the most encouraging single-week data point that we've seen with Diontae Johnson in the lineup. In Week 8, he draws a Jaguars defense that sets up quite well for him on paper.
Jaguars (22 points) -- On paper, I love this as a bounce-back spot for Calvin Ridley.
The more that I dig into the matchup, the more concerned I become. The Steelers have used more press coverage as the season has progressed and as first-round rookie Joey Porter Jr. has become more acclimated.
Ridley has really struggled vs. press coverage. If he ends up seeing Porter Jr. as a primary coverage assignment and is pressed for most of the game, we could see another heaping of over-the-middle targets for Christian Kirk and Evan Engram, as speculated by Nick Spanola of FantasyPoints.com. Nick does fantastic work. Ff you enjoy digging into my research, you'll likely be a fan of his.
With Porter Jr. playing a larger role from the perimeter, the Steelers moved Patrick Peterson into the slot more. Peterson has the worst coverage grade of Pittsburgh's starting corners. Are you also getting the sense that this is going to set up as yet another Christian Kirk spot?
How I'm approaching this game:
I'm trying not to get too excited about the receivers in this game. The over/under is only 41 points. It feels entirely possible -- likely, even -- that this will just be an ugly game and Travis Etienne will soak up a ton of volume again. If these offenses can connect on deep shots, this could turn into a sneaky shootout, though. I'll definitely be stacking up some Pickens with Ridley hoping for that outcome.
Kirk is again a great play in his own right. He continues to be curiously underpriced in DFS and could get loose if a 33-year-old Petertson is his primary coverage assignment.
Over/Under -- 36.5 points (opened at 39)
Giants (16.75 points) -- Only 33.2% of opposing targets vs. the Jets have gone to receivers lined up out wide, by far the lowest rate in the NFL. The next-lowest rate is 38% and only six total teams have a rate below 40%.
Another mind-blowing stat that speaks to the impressive play of Sauce Gardner and this secondary -- only 56% of opposing targets have been first-read targets against the Jets. The next-lowest rate is 60%.
So, who does get targeted? Running backs. New York's opponents have thrown 26.6% of passes to the RB position, the next-highest rate is 22.8%.
For what it's worth, Darren Waller is the clear-cut first-read option in New York with a 27% rate. No other player is above 20%. And Waller spends a decent amount of time (22%, the same as his in-line TE rate) lined up out wide. I'm providing a slight matchup downgrade to Waller.
Jets (19.75 points) -- The Giants blitz at the second-highest rate (46%) in the NFL. Garrett Wilson has been targeted on a hard-to-believe 46% of his 66 routes run when Zach Wilson has been blitzed in 2023. Among qualified receivers, that's the only rate above 40%.
Wink Martindale's defense is wildly aggressive, also ranking top-three in man and press coverage use -- both tendencies point towards a big game from Wilson (who was historically good vs. press as a rookie) as long as his QB can find him open at least a handful of times.
How I'm approaching this game:
Breece Hall may be the best point-per-dollar play at the RB position. Teams have run all over the Giants. Nothing stands out specifically about this matchup, but Hall is cheap enough to warrant core play consideration with the Jets implied for almost 20 points (that's a lot for them!). I wouldn't use Hall and Wilson in the same lineup, and I'd be careful to not get too much exposure to the two this weekend, even though they're both great values. The over/under in this game has been bet down to 36.5. That's disgusting. Even though there are some appealing on-paper one-off options, this game might be best left alone.
Over/Under -- 43.5 points (opened at 41.5)
Panthers (20 points) -- No receiver has averaged more Fantasy points than Adam Thielen from Week 2 on.
Texans (23.5 points) -- The Panthers are one of two teams with a negative defensive rushing expected points added (EPA) in 2023. Generally speaking, opponent rush attempts are a win for defenses. That has not been the case for Carolina, as the Panthers are allowing 4.9 yards per rush and 144 rushing yards per game.
It may not matter for Fantasy, if the Texans split their backfield again.
The Panthers also rank dead last in pressure rate. That's extremely exciting for this C.J. Stroud-led passing attack.
The Panthers also rank last in press coverage use. That's exciting for Tank Dell, specifically.
And one more encouraging matchup note for Dell -- while the Panthers don't get pressure often, they do blitz often. Carolina ranks seventh in blitz rate, and Dell has been one of the most-targeted players in the NFL when his QB has been blitzed.
How I'm approaching this game:
I feel cautiously optimistic that Bryce Young will provide a big game (or at least big enough for Thielen to again be highly productive in Fantasy) in this spot. This DeMeco Ryans-designed Texans defense is much improved from what we've seen from Houston in the past, but Derek Carr (353 passing yards) and Desmond Ridder (329 yards) were able to move the ball against this unit in the two games before the bye. The Texans defense uses a zone-heavy coverage scheme with lots of two-high safety looks. The Texans blitz at the fifth-lowest rate (23%) in the NFL. This is a defense that invites opposing offenses to beat them with short passing and long drives, which is the only way that we've seen Young have success to this point.
My favorite QB pairing for DraftKings Superflex contests is Young-Stroud, as stacking this game opens up a lot of salary at the RB position. And for traditional main slate contests, Dell, Thielen, and Collins are at the heart of my Week 8 DFS strategy.
Over/Under -- 47 points (opened at 47)
Dolphins (28.25 points) -- Raheem Mostert rushed for 121 yards and a pair of scores on 18 attempts vs. this Patriots defense in Week 2.
Here are the RB rushing totals vs. New England since then:
Breece Hall -- 12-18 rushing
Tony Pollard -- 11-47
Alvin Kamara -- 22-80-1
Josh Jacobs -- 25-77
James Cook -- 13-56
On the year, the Pats have the sixth-best rushing defense success rate vs. zone runs and have allowed only 3.66 yards per zone rush attempt. In the five games since their meeting with Miami, New England has allowed just 3.1 yards per zone rush attempt.
Mostert can drop a monster game on any team, and the Dolphins are implied for 28.25 points. This is a really difficult matchup on the ground, though.
Through the air, New England's aggressive use of man/press coverage opens up big upside for Tyreek Hill, who has notably better splits in those situations than Jaylen Waddle.
Patriots (18.75 points) -- The Dolphins have the second-lowest situation-neutral opponent pass rate, meaning that teams choose to attack this Miami defense with the run when not forced to do otherwise by the game script. Miami has been super soft in short-yardage situations. The Dolphins rank 31st in rush defense EPA on plays where the rusher had three or fewer yards to gain a first down. Their opponents have rushed 75% of the time with three or fewer yards to go, which is the highest rate in the NFL.
New England has a top-10 rush rate with three or fewer yards to gain, in spite of a bottom-10 rush conversion rate in such situations. This could be a spot where the Pats rushing attack gets its mojo back.
Specifically, New England ranks fifth in man/gap rushing concept usage, and the Dolphins rank bottom-10 in both defensive success rate and yards allowed per attempt on man/gap concept runs.
How I'm approaching this game:
I'm avoiding this game entirely for DFS purposes. Mostert makes sense as a theoretical contrarian DFS tournament play, but there are other options I prefer at RB.
Over/Under -- 35.5 points (opened at 39)
Titans (16.5 points) -- The Falcons have the eighth-lowest missed tackle rate and rank first in the entire NFL in defensive rushing EPA. This is not a spot to use Derrick Henry, in my opinion. I have Henry ranked as the RB20, juts behind Joe Mixon, Javonte Williams, and Rhamondre Stevenson. The Titans are implied for 16.5 points. They're talking about using multiple quarterbacks. This could be a complete meltdown spot for Tennessee, who feels close to blowing it all up after Kevin Byard, the first of many potential dominoes, was traded away this week.
Falcons (19 points) -- The only team that uses zone rushing on a higher percentage of attempts than the Falcons is the Indianapolis Colts. You may remember that Zack Moss rumbled for 165 rushing yards and two scores vs. this Titans defense. The Titans have allowed just 2.94 yards per rush on man/gap concept runs, compared to 4.74 on zone rushes. It's not a positive matchup on the ground, but it is at least a stylistic fit for Atlanta.
The obvious way to attack Tennessee's defense is with downfield passing, as we've highlighted numerous times in this space. This could be a big Drake London and/or Kyle Pitts game.
The Titans have been especially bad at defending downfield passing, which favors Pitts a bit more (London's aDOT was just 5.7 yards in Week 7, as the Titans have been giving him more layup routes). I also have to note that Pitts saw a season-low route participation in Week 7, which is... fun.
How I'm approaching this game:
No thanks!
London and Pitts are fine in a GPP, but really, you know in your heart that you'll be in a healthier place come Sunday if you just pretend this game does not exist.
Over/Under -- 42 points (opened at 45.5)
Packers (20.25 points) -- No team blitzes more than the Vikings (57%) -- second place is 46%. Jordan Love's splits have actually been better when blitzed than when not, and by far his top target against the blitz has been rookie Jayden Reed. Small sample size alert -- Love has only 61 dropbacks vs. the blitz and Reed's route total is even smaller since he missed a game. What's not small is Reed's 36% target per route run rate vs. the blitz. Compare that to 21% for Luke Musgrave and 19% for Romeo Doubs.
Vikings (21.75 points) -- Green Bay's situation-neutral opposing rush rate (49.5%) is the highest in the NFL. When games are within six points, Green Bay's opponents have a nearly dead-even split of runs and passes. The league average is 42.9%.
That's potentially good news for Alexander Mattison, if you trust his workload. It's bad news for Jordan Addison and Minnesota's projectable passing volume as home favorites.
Some good news for Addison -- the Packers have the fifth-lowest press coverage rate (44%) and third-highest opponent passer rating on deep passes.
How I'm approaching this game:
Addison is fine as a one-off DFS play from this game, but I'd really rather avoid it entirely. Addison's range of outcomes is wider than usual because of the potential for Minnesota to go with a conservative gameplan. If a floundering Jordan Love makes mistakes against Minnesota's blitz-heavy defense, this game may be over quickly.
Over/Under -- 45.5 points (opened at 47)
Cowboys (26 points) -- So far, 37.3% of opposing targets vs. the Rams have gone to the slot, the second-highest rate in the NFL.
I want to be in on CeeDee Lamb in this spot, especially with Dallas implied for so many points. The more that I dug into the matcuhp, the less enthused I felt about Lamb and Dak Prescott. The Rams use a ton of two-high safety looks defensively -- specifically, they're the only team in the NFL to post a Cover-4 and Cover-6 rate that are each above 20%. Prescott was average against those coverage types in 2022 and has been below average vs. them in 2023. And he's shown really weird tendencies when facing two-high safeties, targeting Michael Gallup and Jake Ferguson at by far the highest rate, while Lamb's rates are way down.
Maybe all that data corrects itself here and we get a big Lamb performance. This is one of the most inviting offensive environments of the week.
Rams (19.5 points) -- Puka Nacua has kept right along rolling with Cooper Kupp back in the mix.
A Week 8 matchup against Dallas may provide a bump in the road for the rookie.
The Cowboys lead the NFL with a 51% pressure rate. When pressured, Matthew Stafford has a passer rating of 58.8, down from the league average of 73.1. The only quarterbacks who have been worse vs. pressure are Zach Wilson, Sam Howell, and Bryce Young.
Nacua and Kupp have run 35 routes together on which Stafford was pressured. Those pressured situations resulted in 137 yards receiving on 11 targets for Kupp, compared to just 44 yards on six targets for Nacua. It's a super small sample, but it does make sense anecdotally that Stafford would lean on his original breakfast buddy when pressured.
How I'm approaching this game:
As the public has done all week, I'd bet the Under in this game. Both offenses are still figuring things out and may find themselves a bit frustrated in this game by the opposing defensive tendencies. I like Cooper Kupp as a contrarian DFS option, and Tony Pollard is really undepriced relative to his projection with Dallas implied for 26 points. I'll have some exposure to this game, but not nearly as much as the betting lines imply that I should.
Over/Under -- 38 points (opened at 45.5)
Seahawks (21 points) -- The league average man coverage rate is 23%, Cleveland leads the NFL with a 45% rate. DK Metcalf has been targeted on 26.7% of his routes vs. man coverage in 2023, up from 18% vs. zone. Among 84 receivers with 100+ routes run vs. man coverage since the start of 2022, Metcalf's target per route run rate (31.5% since the start of 2022) vs. man is the ninth-highest.
Metcalf's rookie teammate has not found much success vs. man coverage yet.
Browns (17 points) -- Seattle ranks fifth in press coverage rate (72%), and among the top-five press coverage units are the only to use man coverage less than 20% of the time. In fact, the Seahawks use man coverage the second most infrequently (11.8%) in the NFL. Seattle's scheme is unique -- they have talented cornerbacks with the physicality to press at a high rate, but the Seahawks drop back into Cover-3, Cover-4, and Cover-6 at high rates rather than using press into man coverage.
This all sets up quite well for Amari Cooper. Since the start of 2022, Cooper ranks top-10 in both target and yard per route run rate against press coverage into Cover-3, 4, or 6. He's exactly the type of physical vertical threat who can give a scheme like this problems. Who knows if P.J. Walker will deliver him on-target deep balls, but this is at least a favorable on-paper matchup for Cooper.
How I'm approaching this game:
I don't want any part of this game for DFS. You can get by with starting some pieces from this game for Fantasy purposes, where you have to, but I'd rather not.
Over/Under -- 47 points (opened at 43.5)
Broncos (20 points) -- The Chiefs bring one of the most aggressive defenses in the NFL, ranking fourth in man coverage rate and second in press coverage use. Both Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton have shown an ability to beat man coverage in the past, but Sutton is the receiver who Russell Wilson has focused on vs. man in 2023. Sutton has a 24% target share vs. man coverage, compared to just 11% for Jeudy.
Wilson only threw for 95 yards against the Chiefs two weeks ago, so it may not end up mattering which receiver has better man coverage splits. For what it's worth, 46 of those 95 yards and Wilson's only touchdown toss were caught by Sutton.
Chiefs (27 points) -- The Broncos use zone coverage 70% of the time.
How I'm approaching this game:
Of course, the best way to attack Denver's defense is with running backs. The Broncos have been one of the most favorable RB matchups on the ground and through the air, and Isiah Pacheco saw a career-high six receptions vs. Denver just two weeks ago. The efficiency has fallen off after a hot start to the season, but Pacheco could get back on track in a big way here. He's too cheap for DFS and is someone that I'll have a lot of this weekend.
Travis Kelce is also firmly in play as a DFS lineup anchor against a zone-heavy Broncos defense that uses two-high safeties more than usual. Rice is actually on the outside looking in when it comes to my Week 8 DFS exposure, and I view him as just a fringe weekly starter with nobody on bye. I worry a bit that his route rate may scale backwards a bit with Justin Watson back in the mix. And there are a ton of wide receivers who project well in Week 8. The upside is clearly there, as evidenced in Rice's stellar per-route data. Try not to force him in, though.
I love what we've seen from Javonte Williams lately, but I want no part of him or any other Bronco in a matchup against this Chiefs defense.
Over/Under -- 43.5 points (opened at 46)
49ers (23.75 points) -- Entering Week 8, 37% of opposing targets vs. the Bengals have gone to the slot, the fourth-highest rate in the NFL. Slot fill-in Jauan Jennings registered an 81% route participation with Deebo Samuel sidelined in Week 7. In six career games with a route participation rate above 75%, Jennings has averaged 10.8 PPR points. His career per-route data is pretty dang solid, especially for a seventh-round pick.
This is also a super soft matchup on the ground. The Bengals have the fifth-highest missed tackle rate, and they've specifically struggled vs. zone rushing, allowing the third-highest yard per rush on zone attempts. This sets up as a Christian McCaffrey smash spot.
Bengals (19.75 points) -- San Francisco uses two-high safeties at the sixth-highest rate in the NFL. Most receivers see their per-route data worsen vs. two-high safety looks, but that has not been the case for Ja'Marr Chase. When facing two-high safeties, Chase's yard per route run rate rises from 1.47 to 2.90. Chase has accounted for 48% of Cincinnati's receiving yardage vs. two-high safety looks!
How I'm approaching this game:
It feels like the Bengals may get crushed in this spot, which would likely suck the life out of this game. The exciting pieces of this game (McCaffrey, Chase, Brandon Aiyuk) are not cheap, so we need a decent game environment if considering rostering them. Because of this, I like the idea of a lineup or two that stacks up pieces of this game. Chase and Aiyuk together is a particularly enticing DFS stack from a contrarian standpoint.
Over/Under -- 44.5 points (opened at 43.5)
Cardinals (17.5 points) -- The Ravens are one of eight defenses that uses man coverage over 30% of the time. During his time in Baltimore, Marquise Brown had significantly better splits vs. man coverage than zone, but that has changed while working as the clear top target in Arizona's offense. Brown has an elite 37% target per route run rate and 2.73 yard per route run rate vs. man coverage in 2023, up from 23% and 1.37 vs. zone. Since the start of 2022, Brown ranks seventh in TPRR and 19th in YPRR among more than 100 qualifiers against man coverage.
Ravens (27 points) -- When blitzed, Lamar Jackson ranks 19th in passer rating. When not blitzed, he ranks first. The Cardinals blitz at the lowest rate (16.5%) in the NFL. The league average blitz rate is 29%, Arizona has not blitzed more than 23% in any game all season.
Displayed below are the splits for Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews when Jackson has been blitzed.
Zay Flowers
When blitzed -- 22.5% target per route run rate, 5.2-yard average depth of target, 1.16 yards per route run
Not blitzed -- 23.8% TPRR, 10.3 aDOT, 2.31 YPRR
Mark Andrews
When blitzed -- 20.8% target per route run rate, 7.5-yard aDOT, 1.31 yards per route run
Not blitzed -- 20.8% TPRR, 8.0 aDOT, 2.19 YPRR
Arizona's opponents have completed 69% of deep passes (15+ air yards), up from a league average of 43%. Jackson has been more willing to attack down the field when not blitzed, and Flowers has seen his aDOT nearly double when not blitzed.
How I'm approaching this game:
Running backs have been targeted on 12.9% of routes run when facing man coverage, compared to 19.3% vs. zone. Baltimore's opponents have targeted the RB position on 15% of routes. I'm not looking to get cute with Emari Demercado, even after great usage in Week 7.
I'll get cute with Gus Edwards, though. The Ravens are massive favorites, and it would be no surprise to see them ride the Gus Bus to an easy win in the second half. I have Edwards ranked as the RB21 for Week 8, ahead of Aaron Jones, D'Onta Foreman, and Dameon Pierce. He's definitely intriguing for large-field DFS tournaments as a leverage play off of the Ravens passing game attack. Particularly in lineups centered around Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce, Edwards feels like a perfect fit. He's priced simililarly to Isiah Pacheco, while Jackson and Mahomes and Kelce and Andrews are priced in similar ranges as well. If the touchdowns come on the ground in Baltimore and through the air in Kansas City, a Mahomes-Edwards-Kelce stack will gain massive leverage on lineups that include Jackson, Flowers, Andrews, or Pacheco.
I don't want anything to do with the Cardinals in a matchup against Baltimore. Trey McBride has done nothing with his opportunities to this point, I'll take a wait and see approach until that changes.
Over/Under -- 46.5 points (opened at 48.5)
Chargers (27.5 points) -- The Bears have not allowed a rusher to top 75 yards on the ground in 2023. Running backs have found the end zone against this defense, and a few have found success as pass-catchers against the Bears, so it presents as a positive Fantasy matchup to the RB position. Chicago has been really stingy vs. the rush, though.
Of course, touchdowns and receiving contributions are the most important aspects of Austin Ekeler's Fantasy offering.
As for the passing game, this sets up as a great spot for Justin Herbert to find Keenan Allen over and over again. The Bears rank bottom-five in both blitz and pressure rate. When pressured, Herbert has a 12.8-yard aDOT, and Allen has a lower target per route run rate (15.5%) than Josh Palmer, Mike Williams, and Gerald Everett. When not pressured, Herbert has an aDOT of 7.9 yards and Allen's target per route run rate skyrockets to 33.3%.
Bears (19 points) -- DJ Moore is drawing more target volume than ever.
I don't trust his offensive environment (Tyson Bagent had an average depth of target of 2.00 yards in Week 7), but there's definitely upside against this reeling Chargers defense.
How I'm approaching this game:
Palmer has been a godsend off of the waiver wire, but I'm not so sure that we can trust him in this spot. I'm mostly just not sure that he'll be needed. He could come down with a touchdown or big catch or two, but a bottom range of outcomes game where he has a quiet 4-6 targets in an easy win is quite realistic. It wouldn't surprise me if the Chargers use this game as an opportunity to get Quentin Johnston some work.
For the Bears, DJ Moore brings massive upside against L.A.'s press coverage. His 3.15 yards per route run vs. press is near the top of the league.
On the ground, I expect D'Onta Foreman to lead the way in the early going. But this could quickly turn into a Roschon Johnson type of game script if Chicago doesn't put points on the board early. After giving up some big performances early, the Chargers have been much better against running backs, particularly on the ground. Isiah Pacheco scored 12.8 receiving PPR points against L.A. last week, Tony Pollard scored 14 PPR points as a receiver the week prior, and before that it was Josh Jacobs turning in 16.1 PPR points through the air alone. This could be a Roschon Johnson breakout game.
Over/Under -- 46 points (opened at 49.5)
Raiders (19 points) -- These splits are hard to believe, but it's true -- Jimmy Garoppolo has targeted Jakobi Meyers at a higher rate than Davante Adams in 2023.
When facing the blitz, Garoppolo has leaned more on Adams. But, Aiden Hutchinson and the Lions don't need to blitz (23.6% -- No. 26) to get pressure (39.4% -- No. 7). When not blitzed, Garoppolo has targeted Meyers on 30.4% of his routes compared to 24.8% for Adams. And when pressured, Garoppolo has turned into a pumpkin. The only player who has survived is Meyers, and still, his target per route run rate falls to 22% when Garoppolo has been pressured. Adams' rate is all the way down to 17% on pressured dropbacks.
Lions (27 points) -- Entering Week 8, 21.3% of opposing targets vs. the Raiders have gone to the RB position, the fourth-highest rate in the NFL. The Raiders also are one of just two teams with a negative expectation on rush defense plays. This is a pristine matchup for Jahmyr Gibbs.
How I'm approaching this game:
This is a Lions team returning to its home field with something to prove after last week's embarrassment. This defense has been excellent outside of Week 7, so I'd really prefer to not use Raiders offensive pieces if I can avoid it. Adams, Meyers, and Josh Jacobs are fine starts if you don't have better options.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has quietly stacked up 34 targets over the past two games and is poised for another 100-yard game in a soft matchup. He, Gibbs, and Sam LaPorta are all must-starts. This does not feel like a Josh Reynolds spot (which is usually the case when he puts up big games), as the Raiders have a super conservative defense that limits deep passing at all costs.
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