In order to determine sleepers, busts and breakouts for the 2021 fantasy baseball season, I created a model that looked at wOBA, BA, OBP, SLG and ISO% to determine each player's performance in the shortened 2020 season. I then looked at the expected numbers for each of these statistics, which are based on exit velocity, launch angle, and sometimes even sprint speed. These expected numbers show me how a player was expected to perform last season using these statistics mentioned, as opposed to using outcomes (singles, doubles, etc.) to determine success. By using this model, we are able to determine which players overperformed, underperformed and performed to their true values.
Therefore, in order to determine sleepers, I looked at which players underperformed the most in the short season in 2020. In order to determine busts, I looked at which players overperformed the most. And in order to determine breakouts, I looked at players that underperformed that were either rookies or didn't perform how they were expected to in the short season. Lastly, considering the season only included 60 games and certain players would be subject to ridiculously small sample sizes, I decided to only use players that meet specific criteria (i.e. at-bats and innings pitched).
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