Dak Prescott 2023 NFL odds, props: Cowboys QB says he will not throw double-digit interceptions in Mike McCarthy's new offense, but set at 13.5 picks

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott is a former NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award winner and a two-time Pro Bowl selection. At least half the teams in the league would likely dump their current starting QB if they could get Prescott. However it's now clear he has a bit of an interception problem, as Prescott had a fourth career double-digit picks season in 2022. He says that will not happen this year, but is set at over/under 13.5 picks at DraftKings.

In his 2016 rookie campaign, Prescott only threw four picks despite playing the entire season, but he has never come close to that level of accuracy again when healthy. He did throw just four in 2020 but was limited to five games due to injury. In 2018, his last Pro Bowl season, Prescott had eight picks. Otherwise, he has had at least 10 every other season – topped by a whopping 15 last year in just 12 games (missed five due to injury).

Prescott and Houston's Davis Mills tied for the 2022 league lead in picks, making Dak the first quarterback to lead or co-lead the league in interceptions despite missing five-plus games. Norm Snead (1973), Jake Plummer (1999) and Carson Wentz (2020) previously held the mark of four missed games while leading. Prescott's INT percentage of 3.8% was worse than Mills' 3.1%. 

The Cowboys have a new offensive coordinator, as the team opted to move on from one-time red-hot head coaching candidate Kellen Moore (now OC for the Chargers) and hired Brian Schottenheimer to replace him, although head coach Mike McCarthy is expected to call the plays. That could be good news for Prescott's INT total, as better ball security and winning the time-of-possession battle are priorities for McCarthy -- and that means fewer pass attempts, in theory.

"I've been where Kellen has been," McCarthy said. "Kellen wants to light the scoreboard up. But I want to run the damn ball so I can rest my defense. I don't desire to be the No. 1 offense in the league. I want to be the No. 1 team in the league with the number of wins and the championship. And if we gotta give up some production and take care of the ball better to get that, then that's what we'll do."

In a recent interview, Prescott was fully on board with the offensive play-calling change. "Some of it is the offense and them understanding exactly where we are," the quarterback said. "Mike does an amazing job with those guys. They know where to be, why to be, when they're getting looked at. That's going to be a big jump. I won't have 10 interceptions this year." Of course, one would expect a quarterback to not stir the pot by voicing dissent to the press.

Prescott's INT total is tied for the highest on the board at DraftKings with Buffalo's Josh Allen, although Allen's Over is a short -120 favorite and both the Over and Under are -110 for Prescott. To lead the league, both are +1000 favorites. Dak is also set at O/U 4,000.5 passing yards and 26.5 passing touchdowns. He's +1300 to lead the NFL in the former and +1600 in the latter. Prescott's career highs are 4,449 yards and 37 TDs, both in 2021. 

The Cowboys are currently -3.5 for Week 1 at the Giants, although that spread may rise if Saquon Barkley sits out for New York as he has threatened. The SportsLine Projection Model forecasts Prescott for 229 yards, 1.69 touchdowns and 1.02 interceptions.

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