Beyond the Boxscore: Fantasy Football 2023 Week 16 Lineup Advice from proven expert

Each week, we're going to go beyond the boxscore and dive into the most interesting situations from around the NFL and discuss how they might shape the Fantasy landscape for the upcoming week. My hope is that you leave this article feeling at least a little bit more confident in the reasoning behind your lineup decisions.

I'm going to give advice in this space and hope to be right more than wrong, but most importantly, I hope that you leave these columns with a clearer and fuller understanding of what goes into my rankings here on SportsLine. I'm excited to peel back the curtain a bit and invite you to start thinking about your lineup decisions in a less linear way. We're trying to move away from this player ranks two spots higher than this player, so he's the one to start – lineup decisions are almost always more dynamic than that!

I do my best to create space to answer lineup advice questions on Twitter throughout the week, you might catch me there. My goal is to be more present and available to help SportsLine members with their Fantasy lineup decisions this season. I can't get to every question, though, so I hope that these tiers and comparisons help you feel more confident in your start/sit decisions. Below, you'll find the situations that stood out the most to me when making important lineup decisions.

If you're doing your Fantasy football research or scouring the Internet for Fantasy rankings, you need to see what SportsLine's highly-rated expert Jacob Gibbs has to say. Gibbs uses a data-driven approach that has helped him consistently provide accurate rankings at every position. He has proven to be one of the nation's most accurate Fantasy rankers in recent years -- posting the eighth-most accurate results over the past few seasons, according to Fantasy Pros.

Now, Gibbs has projected every team's stats and shared his findings for Week 16 of the 2023 season. One player Gibbs is especially high on in Week 16: Hunter Henry, who Gibbs believes could help carry Fantasy managers who have lost Mark Andrews or are simply in need of a fill-in flex play in deeper leagues. Gibbs has Henry ranked ahead of the likes of Dalton Kincaid, Dalton Schultz, and Kyle Pitts for Week 16. Gibbs is also all in on an ascending young wide receiver! You NEED to see Gibbs' analysis before you lock in your lineup.

So who are the best under-the-radar players to start in Week 16? And which running backs are you likely better off avoiding? Join SportsLine here to see Jacob Gibbs' weekly lineup advice, all from one of the nation's most accurate experts as graded by FantasyPros!

Sorting out the fringe starter range at each position

Each week, we'll wrap up this start/sit journey by sorting out the fringe starter range of my rankings at each position.

QB 

Jordan Love (QB13), Russell Wilson (QB14), and Gardner Minshew (QB15) mark the cut-off point for players I want to start at the position in Week 16. Geno Smith, Joe Flacco, C.J. Beathard (if Trevor Lawrence doesn't play), Jake Browning, and Nick Mullens are all decent fringe starters if you're in a pinch.

This week's "no questions asked" starters include Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Justin Fields, Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes, and Brock Purdy. Beyond that, here's how I'm categorizing the position this week:

Group 1: Quarterbacks with question marks but upside to push well north of 20 Fantasy points

Tier 1 -- Lamar Jackson, Tua Tagovailoa
Tier 2 -- Kyler Murray
Tier 3 -- Jordan Love, Gardner Minshew, Geno Smith, C.J. Beathard, Nick Mullens
Tier 4 -- Trevor Siemian, Sam Howell, Taylor Heinicke

If you're looking for upside, these are your guys.

Implied point total for each quarterback's team:

26 -- Tagovailoa
23 -- Heinicke
22 -- Smith
21.75 -- Mullens
21.5 -- Minshew
21 -- Beathard
20.5 -- Love
20.5 -- Jackson
20.25 -- Siemian
19.5 -- Murray
17.25 -- Howell

Group 2: Quarterbacks who feel like safe bets to post a score that doesn't hurt your lineup

Tier 1 -- Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield
Tier 2 -- Russell Wilson
Tier 3 -- Joe Flacco, Jake Browning

RB 

This week's "no questions asked" starters include Christian McCaffrey, James Cook, Rachaad White, and Raheem Mostert. Beyond that, you can find how I'm sorting out the position below.

Group 1: There's definitely upside!

Tier 1 -- Jahmyr Gibbs
Tier 2 -- Travis Etienne, Breece Hall, Aaron Jones, Kenneth Walker, Bijan Robinson, De'Von Achane
Tier 3 -- David Montgomery, Isiah Pacheco, Derrick Henry, Ty Chandler, Jaylen Warren, Saquon Barkley, Chuba Hubbard, D'Andre Swift
Tier 4 -- Austin Ekeler, Devin Singletary, Zamir White/Josh Jacobs, Gus Edwards, D'Onta Foreman/Roschon Johnson

Group 2: Safe starters if you don't have a higher-upside option you prefer

Tier 1 -- Tony Pollard, Jonathan Taylor
Tier 2 -- Joe Mixon, Ezekiel Elliott, James Conner
Tier 3 -- Najee Harris, Tyjae Spears, Tyler Allgeier

Group 3: Plays that make sense in theory, but I'm not excited by their projection

Tier 1 -- Javonte Williams, Jerome Ford
Tier 2 -- Jerick McKinnon, Antonio Gibson, Chase Brown, Rico Dowdle
Tier 3 -- Zach Charbonnet, Kareem Hunt, Kevin Harris, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Justice Hill, Chris Rodriguez, Samaje Perine, Miles Sanders, Latavius Murray

WR 

The Week 16 must-start group of wide receivers ends with Deebo Samuel, Rashee Rice, and DK Metcalf as the WR10-WR12. Here's who comes next:

Group 1: I think we can trust these players

Tier 1 -- Brandon Aiyuk, Michael Pittman, Jaylen Waddle, Davante Adams, DeVonta Smith, Tee Higgins, Nico Collins
Tier 2 -- Amari Cooper, Chris Godwin, DeAndre Hopkins, Tyler Lockett, Diontae Johnson, Jayden Reed (Q)
Tier 3 -- Odell Beckham, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Curtis Samuel, Demario Douglas, Dontayvion Wicks
Tier 4 -- Wan'Dale Robinson, Parker Washington

Group 2: Mystery Box

Tier 1 -- Calvin Ridley, Garrett Wilson
Tier 2 -- Drake London, Courtland Sutton, Zay Flowers, Joshua Palmer, Jordan Addison
Tier 3 -- Noah Brown, Josh Downs, Jakobi Meyers, George Pickens, Brandin Cooks, Gabe Davis, Quentin Johnston, Jonathan Mingo, Jameson Williams, Michael Wilson, DeVante Parker

Group 3: Desperation Plays

Tier 1 -- Terry McLaurin
Tier 2 -- Adam Thielen
Tier 3 -- Romeo Doubs, Jerry Jeudy, Elijah Moore, Tyler Boyd, Darius Slayton, Jahan Dotson, Rondale Moore, Alec Pierce, Jalin Hyatt, Rashod Bateman

TE 

Travis Kelce, Sam LaPorta, T.J. Hockenson, Trey McBride, David Njoku, Evan Engram, Jake Ferguson, and George Kittle are the tight ends I consider must-starts for Week 16.

Group 1 -- Upside shots

Tier 1 -- Dallas Goedert
Tier 2 -- Hunter Henry, Dalton Kincaid, Cole Kmet
Tier 3 -- Kyle Pitts, Gerald Everett

Group 2 -- I'm just looking for eight points, honestly

Tier 1 -- Isaiah Likely
Tier 2 -- Dalton Schultz, Pat Freiermuth, Darren Waller
Tier 3 -- Tucker Kraft, Cade Otton, Tanner Hudson, Tyler Conklin

Good luck with your lineup decisions this week! Be sure to hit me up on Twitter during one of the Q&A's, when I set aside time for lineup questions!

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