2023 NFC South odds: Despite Desmond Ridder concerns, Falcons taking huge action to win NFL's weakest quarterback division

With Tom Brady having retired for good this offseason, three's little doubt that the NFC South is the weakest division in the NFL at the most important position in sports: quarterback. New Orleans now has the South's only relatively accomplished starter under center in Derek Carr and is the +125 favorite at BetMGM to win the NFC South, but it's Atlanta and second-year QB Desmond Ridder at +220 taking by far the heaviest action to win the division.

The Saints gave Carr a four-year contract potentially worth up to $150 million even though they mostly were bidding against themselves (the Jets had Carr as their backup plan) after the Raiders cut him. Yep, the best QB in the NFC South could have simply been claimed off waivers, but no team did because Carr regressed in 2022 despite the addition of All-Pro receiver Davante Adams, and his contract with the Raiders made it untenable for the Saints to simply claim Carr. He had a no-trade clause in his contract and would not waive it for a trade to New Orleans. Not because he didn't want to go there, but why help the Raiders? Plus, Carr got to set his own terms as a free agent.

Note that when betting on NFC South futures that the Saints probably will be without Pro Bowl running back Alvin Kamara for at least the first two games of the season due to a suspension for his involvement in a 2022 fight in Las Vegas. The suspension could last for four or even six games. Commissioner Roger Goodell should announce it any day now.

Atlanta may be the most run-heavy team in the NFL this year. The Falcons led the NFL in rushing attempts in 2022 with 559 and used the No. 8 overall pick on running back Bijan Robinson from Texas, the +275 favorite for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. Robinson joins an excellent backfield that already included Tyler Allgeier (franchise rookie record 1,035 yards in 2022) and do-it-all Cordarrelle Patterson.

Ridder will be running plenty as well. Marcus Mariota began last season as the Falcons' starting QB -- he's since been released -- and was serviceable, but with the club at 5-8 coming out its bye, head coach Arthur Smith made the change to Ridder. The 2022 third-round pick out of Cincinnati finished 2-2 as a starter and completed 63.5% of his passes for 708 yards, two touchdowns and zero picks while rushing 16 times for 64 yards.

Needless to say, the Falcons had a pretty basic gameplan for Ridder as a rookie. He has some pretty interesting skill position talent around him now with those backs, wideout Drake London and the best young tight end in the league in Kyle Pitts. For this season, Ridder is set at over/under 2600.5 passing yards and 15.5 TD passes.

The Falcons are taking 40.0% of the tickets to win the South for the first time since 2016 and 47.2% of the handle, both easily the highest rates at the sportsbook.

Carolina (+350) is in full rebuild mode and will start No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young at quarterback, while Tampa Bay (+750) is somewhat caught between the Brady era and a rebuild of its own. The Buccaneers will probably start Baker Mayfield in Week 1 over Kyle Trask, but neither is expected to be the long-term answer.

DraftKings offers O/U win totals inside the division, and the Saints, Falcons and Panthers are all set at 3.5 with the Bucs at 2.5.

Get more out of your SportsLine subscription! 

• Picks: NFL | NBA | CFB | CBB
• DFS: Lineup Optimizer | Picks
• Early Edge: YouTube | Apple Podcasts
• Newsletters: SportsLine Daily | Fantasy

Qualifying SportsLine members receive a 30-day free trial of Paramount+ premium. Sync your account right here.