2023 MLB futures odds: In wild card era, 72 percent of first-place teams on August 1 have won their division

Major League Baseball's stretch run officially begins today because it's the first day of August, and the Trade Deadline also happens to fall today, and if your team is leading its division on Aug. 1, history has shown in the wild card era that it most likely will win it. Your current leaders are: Orioles (AL East), Twins (AL Central), Rangers (AL West), Braves (NL East), Reds (NL Central) and Dodgers (NL West).

Since MLB instituted the first wild card in each league in 1996, 113 of 156 eventual division champions held at least a share of their division lead entering Aug. 1 -- 72 percent of division winners. But last season, only three of the six went on to win their division: Yankees (AL East), Astros (AL West) and Dodgers (NL West). Minnesota led the Central in 2022 one year ago today but missed the playoffs entirely. Milwaukee led the NL Central and also missed out. The NY Mets led the NL East but settled for a wild card.

Also since 1996, 15 of the 26 World Series winners – including Houston in 2022 -- led their divisions entering August excluding the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign that started on July 23.

Here's a look at all six current division leaders and their odds to win via DraftKings. It's only the second time since MLB split to six divisions that as many as five teams are within fewer than three games of first entering August. Four divisions have races within two games.

AL East – Baltimore leads Tampa Bay by 1.5 games but both are +115 to win it. The teams have one four-game series against one another remaining from Sept. 14-17 at Camden Yards.

AL Central – Minnesota leads Cleveland by 1 game and is -225 to win it with the Guards +175. Cleveland traded away one of its best starting pitchers on Monday to Tampa Bay in Aaron Civale for a prospect in an unusual move considering the team is contending.

AL West – Texas leads Houston by 0.5 games with the Astros at -110 and Rangers +140. They have one three-game series left in Arlington from Sept. 4-6.

NL East – Atlanta leads by 11 games and is -100000 to win it. The Braves are also +330 favorites to win the World Series and -320 to finish with the best regular-season record.

NL Central – Cincinnati leads Milwaukee by 1 game and the Chicago Cubs by 5. The Reds and Brewers are +110 and the Cubs +650. All three have been buyers ahead of the Trade Deadline and might not be done yet.

NL West – The LA Dodgers lead San Francisco by 2.5 games and Arizona by 3 and are -450 favorites to win the West for the 10th time in the past 11 years. It would be an upset if the Dodgers didn't add a fairly big piece today before the deadline.

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