2022 49ers NFL futures odds, trends: Bettors not overly optimistic on San Francisco with Trey Lance taking over at quarterback

At the start of training camp last week, San Francisco 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan made official what pretty much every NFL fan already knew: The Niners are now Trey Lance's team and Jimmy Garoppolo is no longer in the plans. He will either be traded or released at some point this month. While bettors at Caesars Sportsbook are pretty bullish on Lance individually this season, they are fairly pessimistic on 49ers futures overall.

Garoppolo led San Francisco to the Super Bowl following the 2019 season and to last season's NFC title game -- and an argument could be made that he's the reason the 49ers lost both those games. The Niners are currently tied for the sixth-lowest odds to win the Super Bowl at +1600. They rank ninth in tickets at 4.3 percent at Caesars and 10th in handle at 4.6 percent.

The Niners are +180 second-favorites to win the NFC West behind the Rams (+120), and San Francisco has taken the second-most tickets (24 percent) and handle (22 percent). They're way behind Los Angeles on both (47 percent of tickets, 64 percent of all money). San Francisco was 2-0 vs. the Rams in the 2021 regular season and led the NFC title game 17-7 entering the fourth quarter before losing 20-17.

San Francisco has an Over/Under win total of 10, with the Under taking a heavy lean -- 68.8 percent of tickets and 87.3 percent of the handle. That is the fourth-most lopsided Under by handle, only behind the Cardinals (91.4 percent), Bears (90.7 percent) and Falcons (88.1 percent). Shanahan's team hasn't gotten one wager to finish with the NFL's best record (+1500), but has gotten three to finish with the worst record (+12500). Assuming Garappolo is gone, Nate Sudfeld would take over at quarterback if Lance were to get hurt.

Lance, the No. 3 overall pick in the 2021 draft, saw action in six games last year and started two, going 1-1. The 22-year-old completed 41 of his 71 passes (57.7 percent) for 603 yards, five touchdowns, and two picks. He rushed 38 times for 168 yards and a TD. Lance has not played much football since 2019 because FCS powerhouse North Dakota State, his alma mater, played just one fall game in 2020 (as a Lance showcase), and he spent much of 2021 holding the clipboard.

Lance opened at +20000 to win MVP, but is down to +5000 and has gotten the sixth-most MVP tickets and seventh-most money. Shockingly, he has taken more than twice as much money to win the award as Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers combined. Mahomes and Rodgers lost their respective superstar receivers this offseason and have been lagging in MVP action overall.

San Francisco opens Sept. 11 in Chicago and is a 6.5-point favorite. It will be Lance vs. fellow 2021 first-round pick Justin Fields. The Niners won their matchup with the Bears 33-22 in Week 8 last year, but that was with Garappolo under center. 

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