Jadan Baugh might be the best RB in nation...

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Iowa State is 3-2 on the year, with its only loss on the road at Iowa, which beat them 16-13 4 weeks ago. They play an undefeated BYU that is 4-0 straight up and ATS. The reason for the bet is Iowa State's quarterback isn’t Rocco Becht anymore, who transferred with Coach Matt Campbell to Penn State. They got Jaylen Raynor, who spent his first 3 years quarterbacking Arkansas State. In Raynor’s last three games, he's thrown three touchdown passes and four interceptions. He's a running quarterback, but he has only rushed for a 3.6-yard average on 42 attempts. The bet is against Raynor and his expected turnovers in Provo and on BYU.

The Cowboys have gone over the total in all four games this season, and over 10 straight. When I heard Dak Prescott give his prediction of a blowout against the Texans, I liked his bold take. The Cowboys have covered their last three games, and they're going to be a hard offense to stop by the best defenses. The Buccaneers are 0-4 and 0-4 against the spread, and they'll use a backup quarterback in this game. Baker Mayfield got the big extension he was crying about all summer, then dislocated his thumb in Week 3. Rookie Jalon Daniels will be the starting quarterback for the Buccaneers. I think the Cowboys can write their own score and go over.

Left-hander Parker Messick has defeated the White Sox twice in the last 2 months, and it's just part of his amazing 2026, where he was 12-9, with a 2.56 ERA and 193 strikeouts in 186 innings. It seems appropriate that his next achievement will be keeping Cleveland alive for Game 5. He'll be facing Hagan Smith, who's going to pitch two or three innings as the opener and give way to the bullpen. I look at it this way: I'm getting value with Cleveland, considering they were -149 and -162 in Messick's last two outings against the White Sox. Cleveland to win.

The South Alabama Jaguars travel to Jonesboro, Arkansas, to play the Arkansas State Red Wolves, who are a 1.5-point favorite Thursday night. The area that got me excited for this game is a total sitting at 57.5. South Alabama averages a 35-31 score as they're 3-2 straight up and ATS. Last week they beat Louisiana Monroe 52–35. They've gone over the total in four of their five games. Arkansas State may barely win the game, but this game will definitely go over despite the last five meetings staying under.

It's going to be 80° at Petco Park with the wind blowing in from left field at 7 mph. No chance of rain in San Diego tonight. The wind alone tells me that it's going to be a low-scoring game and likely another one-run game. I'm willing to bet San Diego wins Game 4, backed by the home crowd and the fact that the Brewers are having trouble in away playoff games. They’ve lost 12 straight road games in the playoffs. I give the Brewers the edge with left-hander Robert Gasser getting the start, but we’ll only have to see him for six innings. The later innings is where the Padres do their damage.

The Yankees only averaged 8.29 runs scored per game during the regular season, and they stayed under more than they've gone over all season long. But I like this game to go over, similar to the way the Yankees played the Rays on September 23rd and 24th at Yankee Stadium. The reason is Nick Martinez, who I feel the Yankees are going to get their party started and score three or four runs off him and set the tone. Max Fried is going to allow one run, so my feeling is I need three runs between the Rays and the Yankees bullpens, and I think they get it. The wind is blowing out to left field at 9 mph. Over is the play.

The Yankees are down 0-2 and will be playing for their playoff lives the next couple of days. But the biggest assist is that Nick Martinez is taking the mound for Tampa Bay. I think Martinez is running out of gas after a very successful first 5 months of the season. The Rays have lost three of his last four starts, and the three losses were on the road, including one at Yankee Stadium. He allowed four runs in his last start at Philadelphia, lasting only 2.2 innings. Max Fried is going to earn his salary today, and the Yankees bats are going to make it a no-sweat game. I think the Yankees will win by 2 or more.

Tyler Mahle is on the mound for the Braves, and they've lost his last two starts, both of them at home, including surrendering five runs to the Reds and allowing two homers. Dodger starter Tyler Glasnow had double-digit strikeouts in his last two outings, and he's going to be the one to get the Dodgers started on the win. The Braves just had their Ace, Chris Sale, get beaten, and they should be feeling down knowing Mahle has to save the day to stay alive. Sale’s finished for the series. The Dodgers lost their last five regular-season games to the Braves. The Dodgers will win it when it counts, like today.

The Padres have been put in a do-or-die situation, and I think they do tonight because it's at home, where they swept the Brewers on August 12th. They need to forget about the first two games and get back to work, knowing they're 43-20 in their last 63 ballgames. Dustin May is the starter for the Brewers, who lost three separate times for two different teams this year against the Padres. Nick Pivetta starts for San Diego, and the Padres have won his last six starts. He's only allowed 11 earned runs in his eight starts this season. The Padres are now even with the Brewers at winning four games a piece after losing the first two games of this series. Padres to win.

The Braves have won Chris Sale's last six starts, including a 1-0 win against the Dodgers on August 27th. That game featured Yoshi Yamamoto, and they hook up today in Game 3 of the NLDS, all tied up at one apiece. It should be an epic battle. The one run allowed by Yamamoto in August was the only run he's allowed against the Braves in his last three starts against them. Lean to the Dodgers, but playing the under.

The Falcons and Saints have stayed under the total in their last three meetings, but I don't think that’ll be the case tonight. New Orleans has a quarterback in Tyler Shough, but we just found out last week that Atlanta has a quarterback that we may have overlooked: Michael Penix Jr., who beat the Packers in Green Bay 35-14. He actually looked pretty good for a guy who's been out almost a year. The Falcons had a balanced offense with 242 yards rushing along with 256 yards passing. The Saints are celebrating the 20th anniversary of the Falcons meeting the Saints after Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans. I'd be happy with a bet on either side, but what I like the most is the over.

The Yankees are hoping Cam Schlittler is the great equalizer in Game 2 as Tampa Bay holds a 1-0 lead in the ALDS, and I’m buying. The Yankees have won seven of Schlittler's last eight starts, and he's allowed one or no earned runs in his last 10 starts. He's got a short price to lay on the road. Freddy Peralta looks as though he's all fixed, as he's allowed only three earned runs over his last six starts, which were all Rays wins. He's come a long way since the Rays traded for him, and he allowed 17 runs in his first four starts. Schlittler has beaten the Rays in his last two meetings, allowing one run each. I've got the Yankees.

It's a new season for Kyle Tucker, and in the new season he hit a home run in his first game. If there's anybody on the team deserving of a good series, it's Tucker, who was miserable in the regular season. Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman aren't even part of the story yet. Mookie Betts is batting leadoff, and both Max Muncy and Teoscar Hernandez go deep. Man, this team hasn't even started flexing, and they're showing their strength early in the playoffs. Blake Snell is going to give me at least five innings, and he's allowed one or no runs in his last eight starts. Dodgers to win against anybody.