Griffin's Pick (1 Live)
Griffin's Past Picks
At home this season, the Maple Leafs are over the total in seven of nine games, often finding 9+ goals. That makes sense when you see that over the last month, Toronto is averaging 3.7 goals/game at home and allowing 4.0/game more. Over the last six games on the road, the Kraken have gone over each time. Seattle's numbers back that up, with the team scoring 3.5 and allowing 3.5 goals/game as the visitor. These two have met four times, averaging 7.5 total goals/game. Grab the over.
Both the Sabres and Blues let up shots, and the goals tend to follow, with each allowing 3+ goals/game on the year. It's not hard to envision a sloppy game that favors offensive production, and based on how these two have fared in past meetings, the over is the play. Six of the past seven games between Buffalo and St. Louis have gone over 6.5, with the lone under seeing six goals. Two of Buffalo's last three road games has gone over and three of St. Louis's last five at home have flown over. Jordan Kyrou seems well-positioned for a goal, if you'd prefer to load up a scorer. He has three goals in his last four against the Sabres.
This is the "oh my, please don't kill their spirit" game when the Bruins host the Sharks. All the numbers suggest that Boston is about to blow out San Jose, and past meetings back up the idea. Expect 35+ shots and 5+ goals from the Bruins here. If you'd rather not bet the puckline as shown here, a bet on Boston winning in regulation, winning the first period, or a David Pastrnak goal paired with 5+ shots are all great ways to attack this lopsided affair.
Arizona can find some goals here hosting Tampa Bay on a back-to-back, and that's enough for us to opt for the over between these two clubs. The Coyotes are averaging 4.0 goals per game at home over the last month and allowing 3.5 more, which aligns nicely with the Lightning's road averages of 3.9 goals scored/game and 3.8 goals allowed/game. With Jonas Johansson in net, the TB backup who has let in 4+ goals in eight of his last 10, expect plenty of goals. Three of the last five meetings between these two has hit the over.
This is the first meeting between the Edmonton Oilers and Vegas Golden Knights since Vegas eliminated Edmonton in the playoffs last season, and there's reason to think the Oilers can have their revenge tonight. These two teams are moving in opposite directions. Edmonton is 5-3 in their past eight games, including three straight home wins, and they've scored 13 goals in their last two. The Golden Knights are 3-7 in their last 10 and have scored only three times in their past four games. We like Edmonton to win.
Sometimes finding goals can be as simple as following shots on goal volume. As we look at today's NHL slate, there's a fair assumption at play that the Hurricanes can pummel the Blue Jackets with pucks today. Carolina averages nearly 33 shots per game at home, and Columbus averages the same in the shots allowed category when on the road. There might be some pent-up frustration that the Hurricanes unleash today after their 8-2 blowout loss to Tampa Bay on Friday , and this would be the opponent to take it out on. Over the last six meetings, Carolina has averaged 42.7 shots/game vs. Columbus, winning four of them by 3+ goals each time. We like the Canes here.
A team like the Devils is too good to stay down for long, and after their 4-0 loss to Detroit earlier this week, I expect a far more spirited effort to come this afternoon. New Jersey has beaten Columbus in three straight, and two of those wins were of the blowout variety, 8-1 and 7-1. Load up a comfortable win for the Devils here.
There seems to be a package deal when New Jersey is on the road, they bring the goals. The Devils are averaging 3.6 goals/game and allowing 3.9/game more when skating as the visitor, which as you might imagine, lends itself to the over. On the other side is a Detroit team with a similar makeup, allowing and scoring 3+ goals at home over the past month. Four of the past five meetings between these two have yielded 7+ goals, and we like that to continue tonight.
There was never a doubt that both offenses could find goals here. Los Angeles is averaging 4.7 goals per game on the road, while Arizona averages 4.0 goals per game at home. The Kings are typically tight to goals, so that was the hesitation. However, with Pheonix Copley in net tonight for LA, expect goals to be flowing. Copley has a 4.58 GAA this season and a save percentage south of .730, he's the far inferior net-minder for the Kings. These two have already met twice this season, with nine goals scored each time. The game prior saw 11 goals scored. Go with the over.
This is about as drastic as a difference as we'll find in the NHL when it comes to quality of teams and offensive and defensive averages. At home over the past month, the Canucks are averaging 4.0 goals per game and allowing only 2.1. On the road over the past month, the Sharks are scoring only 0.6 goals per game and allowing a mammoth 4.1 on average. Tack on a massive power play edge for Vancouver, and it's hard to see a world they don't pour on the goals. The Canucks beat the Sharks earlier this year 10-1, and the two meetings prior were 7-2 and 6-2 Vancouver wins. The Nucks should take this with ease.
Winnipeg at home is averaging 3.7 goals per game, which coincides nicely with Arizona allowing 3.6 per game on the road. The Coyotes should be able to contribute here, they're averaging over 3 goals per game as the visitor, and Winnipeg is skating on the second night of a back-to-back. Earlier this year, these two met and combined for 8 goals, it's not hard to see a similar type of outcome in this one. The key is the special teams, that being penalties handed out and penalty kill rates. Arizona hands out plenty of power plays to aid the Jets offense, and Winnipeg's PK is one of the league's worst of late, which should help the Yotes and their highly successful PP unit. Bring on the goals.
Hope you have your coffee made, the puck drops at 11 a.m. ET in Sweden today between the Minnesota Wild and Ottawa Senators. The over seems to be the play here. Ottawa is averaging the second-most goals/game at 3.93, and Minnesota has a solid 3.27 goals/game average of their own. The Wild are allowing the second-most goals/game at 4.2, and the Senators aren't too far behind at 3.43 goals allowed on average. Ottawa has a decisive power play edge that should power the bulk of the scoring, but there's enough here to expect the Wild to chip in 3+. That's all we need for the over at 6.5.
These two just played a few days ago, a 5-3 Chicago win. Tampa has been shut out in two straight games, which seems like a good time for them to take out some frustration on a Chicago team allowing 3.5 goals/game at home. Mrazek has allowed 3+ goals in 5 of his last 7 starts and Tampa has scored 3+ goals in 16 of the past 17 games vs Chicago. Opting for the over rather than the Lightning's Team Total because Chicago should be able to chip in here. Tampa is allowing 4.2 goals/game on the road, and Johansson is in net who has allowed 4+ goals in six straight starts, including 5 to this Chicago team one week ago
Dating back to the start of 2019, Detroit and Ottawa have met 12 times. In those 12 games, the total has gone over 6.5 nine times. Considering a larger rink today in Sweden as part of NHL's International Series, it should open up space for both offenses to find more room. Ottawa averages 3.85 goals per game and allows 3.38 more. Detroit is averaging 3.67 goals scored per game and allowing 3.27 per contest. Grab the over here for an early-day puck play.