Griffin's Past Picks
I've been auto-betting the over in Toronto Maple Leafs home games, and don't really see a reason to stop. Their top goalie Joseph Woll is now out, and they continue to find themselves in high-scoring games when at home. They're allowing a league-high 4.0 goals/game as the host, tacking on 3.45 goals/game for good measure. Those numbers would explain why the over has hit in seven of the past eight games in Toronto. We've got a feisty Nashville team that should be able to take advantage. The Preds are averaging 4.3 goals/game on the road over the last month and allowing 3.3 more. The over has hit in five of their last seven as the visitor. Load up goals here.
After an embarrassing loss on Saturday, Tampa has responded with two straight wins, allowing just one total goal. However, playing on a back-to-back, it's time for Jonas Johansson to get back in net, their backup who is allowing 3.44 GAA on a .892 save percentage. Nashville has been feisty. They're averaging 3.22 goals/game at home over the past month, and have scored 3+ goals in 10 of their past 13. The Preds have, however, remained vulnerable to goals of their own, which has us liking the over here. Three of the past four meetings between these two has hit 7+ goals.
We went after the Islanders over on Tuesday, a game that flew to nine total goals. Again, we sit here with an Islanders game set at just a flat 6. This New York defense is a serious problem, and now they're trotting out their backup goalie tonight. Columbus is by no means an offensive wagon, instead sporting similarly poor defensive numbers. That should open up things on both sides for goals. Four straight Islanders games have gone over, and eight of the past 10. Four of the past five games for Columbus have hit 6+ goals.
Sportsbooks seem to still be pricing Islanders totals as if this is the New York team of year's past, known for their defense. They've been anything but this year, allowing the second-most shots per game and 3.2 goals/game. Opposite them tonight is the worst defensive team in the league. San Jose allows the most shots and goals per game, suggesting that no defense should be found tonight. Meanwhile, both sides have found some offense of late. The Islanders have 4+ goals in three straight, while the Sharks have scored 11 goals their past two games. Factor in that both Power Plays are scoring at a high clip and both penalty kills are among the league's worst, and it's not hard to see the offenses rule the day.
To me, seeing 3+ goals and goals allowed averages on both sides is usually a sign to dig into the game a bit more for an over. We certainly have that here for St. Louis and Arizona's location trends. Both teams are averaging 3.1+ goals/game in their location and allowing 3.4 more per game. Four of the past five meetings between these two has gone for 8+ goals, including a game just 10 days ago that tallied 11 in all. Grab this over.
It's rarer and rarer to see a flat 6 over/under in the NHL, and the fact we can get it in this game of all games is something worth jumping on. Boston is averaging 3.4 goals per game on the road over the past month and allowing 3.8 goals/game. Toronto's trends are similar at home, scoring 4.1 goals/game and letting in 3.9 more per game. Both teams are also handing out nearly four power play opportunities per game, which should open things up. The over has hit in four of Boston's last five on the road and six of Toronto's last seven at home.
Seattle and Ottawa have met just four times since the Kraken were formed, but one thing has been very clear: goals tend to come. In these four games, the total has hit nine, 12, six and seven. Both defenses leave something to be desired of late. Seattle is allowing 3.7 goals per game on the road over the past month while Ottawa is seeing 3.8 goals/game scored against them on home ice.
The San Jose Sharks have played 10 games on the road this year. They've lost each game, and the opponent has covered the -1.5 puckline all 10 times. Their average margin of defeat as the visitor has been 3.6 goals. New Jersey comes into this one winners of three straight games, scoring 16 goals during the streak. The Devils should cruise, and Jack Hughes looks like a great bet for a goal. Let's keep fading the Sharks.
Both the Sabres and Blues let up shots, and the goals tend to follow, with each allowing 3+ goals/game on the year. It's not hard to envision a sloppy game that favors offensive production, and based on how these two have fared in past meetings, the over is the play. Six of the past seven games between Buffalo and St. Louis have gone over 6.5, with the lone under seeing six goals. Two of Buffalo's last three road games has gone over and three of St. Louis's last five at home have flown over. Jordan Kyrou seems well-positioned for a goal, if you'd prefer to load up a scorer. He has three goals in his last four against the Sabres.
This is the "oh my, please don't kill their spirit" game when the Bruins host the Sharks. All the numbers suggest that Boston is about to blow out San Jose, and past meetings back up the idea. Expect 35+ shots and 5+ goals from the Bruins here. If you'd rather not bet the puckline as shown here, a bet on Boston winning in regulation, winning the first period, or a David Pastrnak goal paired with 5+ shots are all great ways to attack this lopsided affair.
At home this season, the Maple Leafs are over the total in seven of nine games, often finding 9+ goals. That makes sense when you see that over the last month, Toronto is averaging 3.7 goals/game at home and allowing 4.0/game more. Over the last six games on the road, the Kraken have gone over each time. Seattle's numbers back that up, with the team scoring 3.5 and allowing 3.5 goals/game as the visitor. These two have met four times, averaging 7.5 total goals/game. Grab the over.
This is the first meeting between the Edmonton Oilers and Vegas Golden Knights since Vegas eliminated Edmonton in the playoffs last season, and there's reason to think the Oilers can have their revenge tonight. These two teams are moving in opposite directions. Edmonton is 5-3 in their past eight games, including three straight home wins, and they've scored 13 goals in their last two. The Golden Knights are 3-7 in their last 10 and have scored only three times in their past four games. We like Edmonton to win.
Arizona can find some goals here hosting Tampa Bay on a back-to-back, and that's enough for us to opt for the over between these two clubs. The Coyotes are averaging 4.0 goals per game at home over the last month and allowing 3.5 more, which aligns nicely with the Lightning's road averages of 3.9 goals scored/game and 3.8 goals allowed/game. With Jonas Johansson in net, the TB backup who has let in 4+ goals in eight of his last 10, expect plenty of goals. Three of the last five meetings between these two has hit the over.
Sometimes finding goals can be as simple as following shots on goal volume. As we look at today's NHL slate, there's a fair assumption at play that the Hurricanes can pummel the Blue Jackets with pucks today. Carolina averages nearly 33 shots per game at home, and Columbus averages the same in the shots allowed category when on the road. There might be some pent-up frustration that the Hurricanes unleash today after their 8-2 blowout loss to Tampa Bay on Friday , and this would be the opponent to take it out on. Over the last six meetings, Carolina has averaged 42.7 shots/game vs. Columbus, winning four of them by 3+ goals each time. We like the Canes here.
A team like the Devils is too good to stay down for long, and after their 4-0 loss to Detroit earlier this week, I expect a far more spirited effort to come this afternoon. New Jersey has beaten Columbus in three straight, and two of those wins were of the blowout variety, 8-1 and 7-1. Load up a comfortable win for the Devils here.