Mackenzie's Past Picks
Act now on this number. It is steaming back towards his normal 7.5/8.5, as it should. I don't think Luka Doncic is looking to be the star of the show in his debut and will look to pass to his Lakers' teammates, who are shooting over 40% from deep in their past five games. Jaxson Hayes' size allows for a great lob threat and more assists for Luka. I don't think we'll have the pleasure of this 6.5 line much longer.
I like this plus money shot. Without Giannis, we are projecting Golden State to get the edge on the boards and since Steph Curry has rediscovered his shot, it should lead to more Jimmy Butler assists. He has plenty of history breaking the Bucks' heart in the playoffs and will want to integrate himself with this new teammates by looking to pass and defend. The Model makes the number 11.7.
This is an early play on the trade. With De'Aaron Fox gone, Malik Monk is now the starting point guard for SAC and his assist line is set at 7.5 but his rebounding is still in line with his 3.7 average. The Model is assuming he will play more minutes, especially considering Zach LaVine won’t be available for today’s game and with 35 minutes projected, Monk should get at least 4 rebounds. The over is 19-10 since last season when he plays 33+ minutes.
There's no one on the court to score. Even with Jalen Johnson the Hawks’ road 2pt% was just 52%, and I can't imagine it gets better without him. Clint Capela is also out for ATL and you lose nearly 10 points of high efficient paint scoring. Trae Young is probable, but still won't be playing at 100%. Even Bogdan Bogdanovic is out for personal reasons. As for the Pistons, they still haven't upped their 3pt % at home. Even when they are winning and covering their last two home games, they were shooting 29% from deep. Good luck finding points in this game.
Jrue Holiday broke his slump. He gave us 7 straight unders before breaking out with 21 at DAL in their last game. Holiday could also see more minutes today with Derrick White a GTD. This is a bet on minutes: When he plays 31 to 35 minutes the over is 32-14 the last 2 seasons. The Celtics either get out fast and he is productive as a starter or Houston keeps it tight and he stays in for his defense.
Another play on minutes here. Mark Williams for most of the last 2 seasons was either hurt or in a time share with Nick Richards but since they traded Richards, Williams is playing major minutes and has even scored 19+ in four of his last 6 games. Other Centers who average 17-20 do much better at home vs the Lakers, averaging 21.8 points + assists on their home court. The Lakers also have multiple GTDs, making anyone's life easier on the Charlotte side.
All it takes is one. Kenny Gainwell hit 10 rushing yards off one carry last week, and I feel confident he'll be good for 1-3 carries again this week. Saquon Barkley will need a breather from carrying the entire city on his back. Gainwell is 10-4 to this over since October 13th, and we are getting a buy low spot since he technically didn't hit his 10.5 line from last week. If there is a team down the stretch to rack up your YPC against, it's Washington.
Game of the year! Nothing about this game looks like an over. Portland has been using their youth and athleticism to shutdown teams defensively. And they shouldn't have a hard time doing so, as Brandon Miller who averages 21 points, is out for the season for CHA. The under is 15-8 in POR road games and 15-5 in CHA home games. The Sportsline Model makes the number 210.
Looking at a game of dump off passes here. Detroit passed to Jahmyr Gibbs for a TD and 5 short receiving (31 yards) to save Goff vs the MIN defense and the Rams will look to do the same. While the model doesn't like Kyren Williams rush yards, we do like him to get a few dump off passes from Stafford vs the Vikings who blitz like crazy. While the over is just under 50% since 2023, he has averaged 13.7 yards which is well over this line and history should justify a line of 12.5.
Penn State will be a wake up call for Notre Dame. They have an experienced QB who will not give you a strip sack converted to a touchdown like Georgia, and their offense should take more advantage of ND's battered DLine. Notre Dame scored 9 points of true traditional offense last round. Penn State should win the turnover battle which should be just enough to squeeze out a win.
This is just asking a typical game. Now if Banchero plays then Naz Reid may get more minutes because he is playing well offensively and has a better defensive rating (109) than Julius Randle (112). He has gone over this in his last 3 games against Orlando as well as his 2 previous games this week. I'd support taking the 5.5 at plus money too.
This is a volume play. The other guards, Jalen Suggs, Anthony Black, and Gary Harris are all dealing with injuries so Cole Anthony should get 30+ min like he has the last 2 games. He has not had big games the last 2 (16 and 24 PRA) but he has gotten 11+ FGAs for 4 straight games. The Knicks should be up big which allows Anthony to play a large role and get up plenty of shots, even if he doesn’t start. The Model makes the number 28.

This is all about the increase in receiving yards. Not only is Aaron Jones having his second best rushing season, but we see a steady increase in receiving yards with 6, 11, 20, 26, 30 the last 5 games. The best way to attack this battered Lions defense right now is through the air. The over was on a 9-5 run until he had 77 last week, time to buy back in.
Craig Reynolds has entered the chat. Jahmyr Gibbs will be the clear cut RB1, but Reynolds had 31 rushing and 35 receiving yards vs SF earning a clear role. We are projecting just 25 RB rush attempts and think Reynolds can get 30 to even 40% of those. This Minnesota defense in general limits first down yards and should force some passing positions in early downs.
Great buy low spot. Naz Reid is 3-7 to this number in his last 10 games, but the volume is there. He also averages 19 points and rebounds against Boston in his last three. Boston likes to get their opponents in a three-point race, and I think we should get 5+ attempts from Reid there. He'll either contribute to Minnesota keeping this game tight by playing well, or he'll get the minutes off the bench vs Boston's backups if it's a blowout.