Allie's Past Picks
Things aren't looking great for Clayton Kershaw, so I think we see Michael Grove get the start tonight, and I'd like to be on the right side of this line just in case. We saw Pittsburgh score at least six runs in all three games against LA earlier this season, so Grove, with his 7.54 ERA and 1.59 WHIP, should be an easy target. Mitch Keller has been solid this season, but he's been worse on the road, where he has a 4.02 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. The over is 5-0-1 in the last six Pirates games, and it has hit in five straight Dodgers games. I like a high-scoring matchup tonight.
It's hard to pass on the Braves when they've won seven straight. Granted, they are going up against the Phillies, who ended their six-game win-streak after Tuesday's game. But Atlanta is going with Bryce Elder, who on the road is 3-0 with a 1.76 ERA. On the other hand, Aaron Nola is having a tough season and has a 5.34 ERA in his last five starts. I think this is a great price for Atlanta on the money line.
I'm going with the Astros here. Cristian Javier is 7-1, and at home, he has a 2.27 ERA. On the other hand, Tylor Megill has been awful on the road, where he has a 7.42 ERA and 2.14 WHIP. The Mets are just 4-12 in their last 16 games. The juice is worth the squeeze for Houston today.
I've got to go with the Reds here, as they're on a 10-game win streak. Not to mention, Andrew Abbot is getting the start; the Reds have won all three behind him this season, and he hasn't given up a single run in all three of his MLB starts (17.2 IP). It appears the Rockies are going with their bullpen after Connor Seabold was deemed unfit to return from the IL. The Reds bats should lead them to their 11th consecutive win, hopefully, by at least two runs.
Despite his 2-6 record, Blake Snell has been solid. However, he’ll be up against his former team, and the Padres rarely seem to back him up with offense. Zach Elfin has struggled on the road, but he and the Rays bullpen should be able to keep scoring opportunities for the Padres to a minimum tonight. Elfin is 8-2, so I’ll take my chances on the Rays at -110 to get their fourth consecutive win.
Well, this price has jumped with Touki Toussaint being announced as the starter for Cleveland, making his first appearance in the majors this season. The Dbacks have Zac Gallen, who is 6-0 with a 0.96 ERA at home. Arizona had a tough series against the Phillies, but they should be looking to bounce back. Lay the juice for the home team.
This number is too good to pass on the Reds, who are on a five-game win streak and are 10-2 in their last 12 on the road. The Astros are just 3-6 in their last nine. With this rookie pitching matchup between JP France and Andrew Abbott, the Reds appear to have the advantage. Not only has Abbot recorded wins in his first two MLB starts, he hasn't allowed a run in 13 innings. Meanwhile, France has struggled at home, as evidenced by his 5.94 ERA in 16.2 IP. +143 is definitely worth it for Cincy to get their sixth consecutive victory.
I think this number is a bit lower than it should be just because of this pitching matchup between Shohei Ohtani and Nathan Eovaldi. However, with the first three games of this series going over, six consecutive Rangers games and Angels games have had eight or more total runs. Also, all six of the games between these two teams so far have gone over eight. Ohtani has been worse on the road, where he has a 4.22 ERA, and Eovaldi has been worse at home, with a 3.38. Just due to the trend of high-scoring games between these two teams, I've got to play the over at eight.
The Tigers have lost 11 of their last 12, and they're just 12-21 on the road this season. Meanwhile, in their last five games, the Twins are 5-0 ATS. At home, Sonny Gray is 3-1 and has a 1.71 ERA. Matthew Boyd has been much better on the road, but I just don't think this Tigers offense gives him much support. I'd much rather take Minnesota ML, but at -210, I'll take my chances on the run-line in what should be a lower-scoring game.
On the road, Aaron Nola has a 5.14 ERA. Ryne Nelson was able to keep the Phillies to three hits and just one run in six innings a couple of weeks ago in Philly, but at home, he has a 6.62 ERA and 1.70 WHIP. Four of this six games between the Diamondbacks and Phillies have ended with nine or more runs this season; I like this one to end similarly. Take the over.
Yes, the A's have started to turn things around, but I'm backing the Rays to even out the series here. There's not much to complain about Paul Blackburn, who has been great in two of his three starts this season. However, the Rays' Taj Bradley has a 1.71 ERA on the road, and he's been great against left-handed batters, so he should fare well against this lefty-heavy A's lineup today. The Rays put an end to the A's seven-game win streak yesterday, and I don't think Tampa lets this one get away.
The juice is worth it for the Knights tonight. The Knights have yet to lose a single game against the Panthers. I don’t think they start losing tonight in what could (and should) be the last hockey game we see this season. Adin Hill has been absolutely incredible against Florida, while the same can’t be said of Sergei Bobrovsky. It’s Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Finals; take the home team to close out this series and season as champions.
Both Ryne Nelson and Matthew Boyd have some significant home/road splits. However, this should work in favor of the Dbacks, as Nelson has been pitching much better on the road where he has a 3.76 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. On the other hand, in Detroit, Boyd is 0-4 and has an 8.34 ERA and 1.90 WHIP. The Diamondbacks have won nine of their last 11 games and seven of their last eight on the road. Meanwhile, the Tigers are currently on a seven-game losing streak. We're getting great value on the Diamondbacks at -135. Take them now, as I fear this price will steepen by the AM.
Even with Marcus Stroman starting for the Cubs, I think this is a decent price for the Giants. Yes, Stroman has led the Cubs to wins in his last four starts, but the Cubs are also on a four-game losing streak. Anthony DeSchlafani could be better, but there's not much offense happening to worry about. Chicago has been terrible on the road, where they're 5-18 in their last 23. Even though the Giants are returning from Colorado, I think they pick up a win today against the Cubs.
The Reds have had all of Graham Ashcraft’s last six starts go over, in which he recorded a 12.99 ERA. On the other hand, the Reds have been hitting very well in this series and against left handed pitching, so I expect that to continue against Clayton Kershaw today. The over has been the play for both Reds and Dodgers lately. Take it today at +105.