These teams are two sides of the same coin. Each allows 65.2 ppg. Each is 13-18 on Overs. Their pace of play is almost identical. UCLA ranks 310th in possessions per game, four spots ahead of Tennessee. Their coaches are maniacal with defense. If both teams keep the opponent below their norm, even by a fraction, the Under will score.

Georgia Mason averages 71.3 points per game, Bradley is even better at 76.6. While both defenses are formidable, simple math suggests they should not be able to keep each other in the 60s. The Braves stand 17-13 on Overs and have hit or exceeded the 70 mark in all but one of their last seven outings. Mason remains sub-.500 but has gone over four in a row. The Patriots’ NIT opener produced a whopping 155. As a rule, postseason tournaments not named NCAA shouldn’t carry such modest totals.

A two-time defending national champ versus a team that won a third of its league games: That's the reasoning behind this healthy line. It's too large. UConn has rarely shown a resemblance this season to its immediate predecessors. The least flattering of the Huskies' stats is a 291st ranking in turnover percentage. Oklahoma's offense -- 22nd best in D-!, according to KenPom analytics -- is superior. The Sooners play at full speed and can capitalize from UConn's shaky three-point defense. Oklahoma's lousy SEC record is softened somewhat by its ability to play close. The past there defeats came by a combined five points.

When Troy stepped up to play teams from the Power Four leagues, its normally potent offense fizzled. The Trojans tallied 42 versus Houston, 49 against Arkansas and 61 versus Oregon. (Two of those matchups produced 114 and 102 points from both sides.) Granted, those results date to 2024, but they offer evidence that this score might stay south of 150. All told, Troy's games average 257 possessions, well below the median in Division I. Look for the Trojans to ease off the pedal to slow run-and-gun Kentucky.

The NCAAs already has toasted a 12th seed winner (McNeese State), so why not another? Memphis' giddy-up offense will be crippled if its two ailing PGs, Tyrese Hunter and Dante Harris, are stuck on the bench. Hunter, for one, says he will sit out. Without factoring in the injuries, KenPom.com ranks Colorado State five slots ahead of the Tigers, owing to its No. 50 rating for offensive efficiency and No. 52 for defense. The Rams have swept their last 10 games outright, largely on the strength of lights-out three-point shooting. It is rare for a 12 seed to be giving (points) rather than receiving. In this case, it is justified.

With its sixth game in eight days, the most taxing stretch of the NBA season, L.A. is essentially punting. Luka Doncic will be held out, meaning the top three Lakers (also LeBron James and Austin Reaves) will spectate. The Bucks are in the early stages of a five-game swing out west, so fatigue has not set in. Milwaukee has hit a rut, with five outright losses in the last seven, and will put more emphasis in this game than will L.A.

In the lead-up to March Madness, the betting public goes mad over a mid-major with a double-digit seed. This year, the honor goes to UC San Diego. Its analytics numbers jump off the page, and its record is impressive. Still, this number is unrealistic. The Tritons, who are not far removed from Division II, tore through a soft schedule. While they are ranked an impressive 36th by Kenpom, that's still 11 slots below the Wolverines. Michigan wields a pair of seven-footers, while San Diego's tallest starter is 6-8. Underdog backers cite the possibility that Michigan remains worn down from its Big Ten tourney title, but players recover faster than in bygone days.

Sticky defense and a patient offense define UCLA. The Bruins yield the 27th fewest points per game in D-1 at 65.7 and are ranked 32nd in defensive efficiency. Their average possessions per game ranks 296th. All of which points to a modest score. As coach Mick Cronin has bemoaned, his team has not thrived in Eastern time zone games, scoring in the 60s in five of six. Utah State is capable of big numbers, but its pace based on possessions is below the median at 226th.

This line came up small after BYU was stifled by Houston in the Big 12 Tournament. Not to be overlooked is the Cougars' nine consecutive Ws straight-up prior to that beatdown. The Cougars deploy nine-man rotation and are accustomed to play at altitude, which provides them with a significant edge in Denver. VCU can score but not at BYU's rate; the Coogs average a whopping 81 ppg. Offense carries the day.

McNeese State loomed as a legitimate upset from the double-digit seed club. Then news broke that coach Will Wade is fleeing after the season for North Carolina State. That likely will come Thursday night. Given the distraction for him during negotiations and the team for dealing with the departure of its leader, McNeese's chances take a dip. The Cowboys' 11-game straight-up win streak is misleading in light of the fact that they covered only four times. Clemson has won 14 of 16 outright, with one defeat in triple overtime. The Tigers stand 20-11 ATS this season. Their points differential is 11, a snazzy number for an ACC member. Their physicality should keep the Cowboys at bay.

North Texas sports the third stingiest defense in Division I, with an allowance just south of 60 ppg. However, Furman’s offense has the juice to deliver an Over. Paladins games averaged 148 points, and two of their last three outings hit 163 and 177. They score more than do two recent Mean Green opponents, and those matchups generated 140 and 136 points. Entrants on the NIT’s opening day set the tone with six overs in seven outings. 

The NIT, with its defense-optional scenario in some matchups, is a perfect fit for Samford. The Bulldogs averaged 83.3 points per game while playing at a rate that produced the 21st most possessions in Division I. Their scores have been through the roof lately: a 208-point explosion (with no overtime) and three others in which one squad scored 90-plus. George Mason works at a slower clip than the norm, but the Patriots might struggle to control the pace. Overs went 6-1 on the tournament’s first night. 

Count on American to take the air out of the ball. Their games averaged the fewest possessions of all but six squads in Division I. Mount St. Mary's performs at a modest pace, but scoring dipped dramatically in its league tournament. Mountaineers games resulted in 120, 112 and 112 points registered. They are among the worst D-I teams at committing turnovers. Though this total is low, a slow pace plus the pressure that both mid-majors will feel in the First Four encounter add up to a high-school-like score.

Road games generate plenty of points for Kent State. Its four latest wound up with 175, 188 (in overtime), 149 and 153. That bodes well for the Golden Flashes getting St. Bonnie out of its usual dawdling pace of play. Bonnies’ games tend to land right around this total for points scored, so we are counting on Kent to lift it above the number. NIT coaches stuck in the early Tuesday time slot are afforded minimal hours to study their opponents, which tends to favor the offenses.

Georgia Tech plays relatively fast, ranking 102nd for possessions per game, and can fill it up at home. In recent games in Atlanta, the Yellow Jackets piled up 90 (in overtime), 89 and 87 points. Jacksonville State operates more slowly yet averaged more points per game (73.9) than did Tech (73.4). In the Gamecocks' latest outing (against Liberty), the Over carried by 14.5 points. These early Tuesday NIT games, which tip off barely 48 hours after the schedule is announced, allow little time to prepare defensively.