Mike's Picks (7 Live)
Washington State is without its head coach and as many as nine players
New England would be rolling into Baltimore with an 11-game outright win streak if not for coughing up a hefty lead to Buffalo last Sunday. The outcome might serve the Patriots well in bringing them back to earth. Hitting the road is hardly daunting, given the Pats’ 6-0 SU away mark with four straight covers as a road underdog. Baltimore, by contrast, is 3-5 SU at home. This surprising spread is based on the public’s belief that, amid a rocky season, the Ravens finally found their bearings with a shutout win last Sunday over Cincinnati. One stellar performance in a year mostly devoid of them does not support this line.
Here's a betting stat that jumps off the page: In their last dozen games after a straight-up defeat, the Lions stand 12-0 SU and 11-1 ATS. This is a muscular spread, but Detroit averages a whopping 33.7 ppg at home and benefits from the absence of Steelers pass rush maestro T.J. Watt. The Lions' D applies pressure, and QB Aaron Rodgers has the poorest completion rate among starters in that scenario. He's also at the bottom for average yards per pass attempt, which suggests that a Steelers rally is unlikely if they fall behind.
QB Kirk Cousins, whose future in the league wll be determined by how he plays in the season's stretch run, should be delighted to see WR Drake London suiting up. Atlanta's premier WR returns after a month of nursing an injury. On defense, the No. 2 unit in sacks should harass Jacoby Brissett on the passing-obsessed Cardinals. The Falcons have been up-and-down lately, while the Cardinals have been down-down. They own a single victory in the last dozen starts and have yielded at least 40 points in the past four games. London could not have picked a more promising scenario for his comeback.
When does a team get shut out and lose by 24 points one Sunday, then lay more than a field goal on the next? When the opponent is all but eliminated from the playoffs while possibly turning to a rookie QB who was a last-round draft pick and has thrown passes in one game. Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel has opened the door to replace Tua Tagovailoa with lightly regarded Quinn Ewers. Miami's Monday night loss to Pittsburgh was not all Tua's fault. The defense turned back the Aaron Rodgers' clock, allowing the Steelers QB to play like the Hall of Famer he will become. This pick relies on Cincinnati to bounce back from an awful game. We're counting on the Bengals' pride to surface.
Upfront: It is risky to go Under at this number when one of the defenses -- we're talking to you, Jets -- has allowed more points (41 ppg) in the past two outings larger than this number. Supportive factors overshadow that concern. The Jets, looking to the future, send out QB Brady Cook for his third start. His sorry stat line from them includes five interceptions against one TD pass. The Saints average a mere 16.1 ppg and, while the offense has picked up lately under rookie QB Tyler Slough, it remains pedestrian and will be without three playmakers. Their mini-surge is mostly about defense. New York changed its D-coordinator this week, so better things loom on that side of the ball.
Broken hand? Nah, just a scratch, Justin Herbert might say scoffingly. The Chargers QB, underappreciated by about everyone except his worshiping head coach, is 2-0 straight-up against the latest Super Bowl participants. He has adjusted to the restraint, though the Ws were more the product of a nasty defense. It doled out 19 points to Philadelphia (in 68 minutes of play) and 13 to Kansas City. In theory, pocket pressure would checkmate a QB playing virtually one-handed. But the Cowboys are average in that regard. As a bonus, Dallas likely will be eliminated by kickoff, thus reducing its motivation. The rival Eagles can do the deed by beating Washington on Saturday.
The significant injury to Green Bay pass rush extraordinaire Micah Parsons is largely responsible for a total in the upper half of the 40s. Numerous injuries on the offenses suggest it's too high. For the Packers, top RB Josh Jacobs and dangerous WR Christian Watson are questionable. For the Bears, the two main WRs, Luther Burden and Rome Odunze, have been shelved. The squads combined for 49 points in their recent clash, but the yardage totals were not excessive. Chilly weather and winter winds could contrbute to an Under.
Statistically, there is lttle separating these fine teams. Keep in mind that Miami carved out its lofty rankings against an ACC schedule, while A&M's numbers were etched in the more formidable SEC. Home-field advantage is usually negligible. Perhaps not so in this case, where the Aggies' 12th Man is hardly a myth. These fans can be disruptive. They won't impede the A&M offense, which scored at least 31 points in the seven games prior to a season-closing clunker against Texas. Ace RB Le'Veon Bell is expected to return after rehabbing an injury through the back half of the season.