Mike's Picks (8 Live)
Western Michigan took its lumps with season-opening setbacks to a gauntlet of opponents -- Michigan State, North Texas (in OT), Illinois. That set up the Broncos to blow through their MAC schedule, losing just once SU. Their calling card is defense. The unit yields just 18.2 ppg, 14th best in FBS, and the yardage allowance is 15th. On offense, QB Broc Lowry is a dual threat, with six rushing and no passing TDs in the past four games -- all victories. Kennesaw State has lived a charmed life this season after winning twice outright a year ago. Fairy tales usually end, and the Owls' wondrous journey should close out with a loss.
Let's go with continuity here. Missouri State is missing coach Ryan Beard, off to Coastal Carolina -- and replaced by OC Nick Petrino (son of Bobby), who has yet to serve as a head coach. The Bears also bid adieu to five impactful transfers, notably WR Tristian Gardner, who tied for the team lead for TD receptions. Arkansas State is pretty much impact, and veteran coach Butch Jones has won five of his last six bowls SU. Though both offenses are potent, they tend to produce more points in home games. Neither side enjoys the luxury here, and the Red Wolves' defense is marginally superior.
It's not uncommon for a QB to bypass a bowl game. In this unusual case, both starters are sitting out. For USF, Byrum Brown is serving as an unofficial assistant coach as he mulls over his playing future. Replacement Gaston Moore makes his first career start, with the same number of interceptions and TD passes (three) this season in reserve. For Old Dominion, freshman Quinn Henicle, who has tossed 15 passes, steps in for the transferring Colton Joseph. The Monarchs allow a fraction less than 20 ppg, while the Bulls’ yield is a bit higher because opponents have trailed by large margins throughout the year. The defenses should do their part to deliver an Under.
The Vikings’ slumbering offense emerged from hibernation last Sunday, socking the Commanders with 31 points. Can they do it again, given no TDs in the past 25 possessions on the road? Let’s say Minnesota reaches the low 20s. Well, Dallas scores at a 32.6-point clip at home, with a staggering offensive output of 431 yards per. Better yet, hard-to-guard WR CeeDee Lamb has been cleared from concussion protocol. The Vikes are fond of — not to mention effective at — blitzing. Bring it on, says Dak Prescott, whose team has taken three in a row SU in the seres. The QB is especially adept at handling pressure.
No way a game involving the Vikings should earn this high a total. QB J.J. McCarthy showed flashes of improvement last Sunday in an otherwise dreadful season. Am skeptical that he can deliver a sequel. Minnesota's defense has been just short of heroic during the offensive malaise. It held four foes to between 19 and 27 points when the offense was pretty much three-and-out, then tossed a shutout at Washington in the latest outing. Dallas games can evolve into shootouts, but few Cowboys opponents have been as imbalanced toward the defense as Minnesota.
The Colts might cover but, with Philip Rivers poised to start at QB despite carrying more rust than an antique car garaged for decades, it's hard to envision Indy scoring much. They probably will overwork RB Jonathan Taylor, yet he has tailed off the past three weeks after an MVP-like performance for the season's first half. The Seahawks have yielded just nine points in the latest two games. Indy's defense has been dreadful of late. However, if Taylor's carries keep the clock moving, Seattle might not find enough snaps to score a lot.
Carolina finds itself in the rare air of a playoff quest in December. Here’s hoping the Panthers spent their bye week prepping for the stretch run and not celebrating their ambush of the L.A. Rams. QB Bryce Young might be sensing some pressure. Here’s the antidote: simply hand off all day to Chuba Hubbard and Rico Dowdle, who have collaborated to lift Carolina to a No. 10 rank for rush offense. The Saints’ run defense? Twenty-seventh. On D, Panthers ace CB Jayce Horn looks good to go after injury worries, which should help keep rookie QB Tyler Slough in check. What keeps us up at night? Carolina’s 11 consecutive losses outright as favorites. The bye offered time for therapy to deal with that head-case issue.