Mike's Picks (4 Live)
Mike's Past Picks
Home field matters sometimes in these conference title games. After an overtime loss in Week Two against Group of Five powerhouse North Texas State, Western Michigan took down five straight visitors. Miami's season rescue by QB Thomas Gotskowski after Dequan Finn abruptly quit to prepare for the NFL draft is laudable. Still, this is just Gostkowski's third start -- in a league championship game, no less. He likes to tuck it and run, and the Broncos defense is geared to stop such tactics.
North Texas has been a money-maker for ATS backers, having won 10 games. Why stop now? The Mean Green have piled up a minimum of 52 points in all but one of their last half-dozen games behind in-the-groove QB Drew Mestemaker. The defense ranks sixth in the 14-team AAC. Tulane owns a .500 record ATS, with three consecutive setbacks at home. Though Green Wave coach Jon Sumrall sticks around for the game, he could have one eye on the Kentucky job that he accepted this week.
This spread keeps climbing based largely on the perception that James Madison might pour it on to impress the playoff committee. Yet Troy sports the third stingiest Sun Belt defense based on points allowed. QB Goose Crowder is back in form with two weeks of action after a broken collarbone waylaid him. Coach Bob Chesney remains on duty but surely has been distracted by trying to salvage the small recruiting class at his next gig --UCLA. Conference title game odds do not get bigger than this one, and a cover is more than doable.
What could wind up as the highest total of the NFL season is, well, too high. Dallas' defense has improved dramatically over the past three weeks, and it squares off against an offense missing TE Sam Laporta, (probably) WR Amon-Ra St. Brown and scattered linemen. The Cowboys could take the field without OT Tyler Guyton, idled on Thanksgiving Day, and the Lions' defense is better than widely perceived, ranking 13th in yards allowed. All analysis aside, with a number this huge, the way to go is low.
How unusual to feel confidence in an NFL team when a rookie QB who was not a starter at the dawn of the season returns from an injury hiatus. Jaxson Dart has guided the Giants to both SU victories with a LB mentality that has juiced up his teammates. Without him, New York has stayed inside this number in three consecutive outings. The Patriots are dealing with an injury outbreak. OLT Will Campbell went on injured reserve this week, while OG Jared Wilson is out as well. Several teammates sat out Friday's practice. Going against a new defensive coordinator, New England and its makeshift O-line might see new looks from the Giants' D.
Siding with a sizable favorite that wins narrowly will be nerve-wracking. Of the Broncos’ eight consecuive SU wins, here are the margins in six of them: one, two, three, three, three, four. On the other hand, the Commodores have failed to cover once during their current six-game SU slide. While both teams have regained a modicum of health, Washington QB Jayden Daniels remains idled, while Denver All-Pro CB Patrick Surtain II is expected to return after three games out. With the league’s 14-ranked offense, the Broncos should be able to find sufficient points against the No. 31 defense for a cover.
QB Aaron Rodgers appears in for Pittsburgh. (Though, wth A-Rod, one can never be too sure.) OTs Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown are confrmed out for Buffalo. With Blls WR Curtis Samuel joining them in street clothes, while WR Joshua Palmer and TE end Dalton Kincaid are questionable, the burden on even QB Josh Allen seems too great. The Bllls have dropped three road games SU, falling short of 20 points in each. Given Rodgers' sore wrist, possible inclement weather and Bufallo's shoddy rush defense, the Steelers can control the game on the ground. They have followed their last 20 losses with 14 ATS victories.
Minnesota's offense is broken, J.J. McCarthy has been the worst QB league-wide, which might have been compounded by a possible concusson Sunday aganst Green Bay. Whether or not McCarthy plays here, the Vikings' offensive outlook is dire. With Carson Wentz done, the starting QB role could fall to rookie Max Brosmer, who has thrown eight passes as a pro. He would face off against the seventh-ranked defense. As for the Vikes' D, it performed admirable Sunday, holding Green Bay to south of 300 yards even though the Packers held possesson for 37 mnutes.
Both teams regularly reach the 20s in points, with the Cardinals falling short just once and the Bucs twice. Each side got welcome news on the injury front. Arizona welcomes back WR Marvin Harrison Jr. and RB Bam Knight. RB Bucky Knight returns for Tampa Bay, while QB Baker Mayfield defied the odds and recovered sufficiently from a shoulder injury. Both squads have .500 records on Over -- 7-4 for the visitors, 6-5 for the hosts.
The Dolphins opened 1-6 straight-up, and there was speculation that coach Mike McDanel might not last beyond midseason. Since, Miami has won three of four outright, twice in convincing fashion, and the bespectacled boss appears off the hot seat. The defense was dinged for just 32 combined points in those games. The Saints threw rookie QB Tyler Slough into the deep end late last month, and he has managed to stay afloat. However, it appears he must go to battle without main WR Chris Olave and fading but still effective RB Alvin Kamara, both injured. The ‘Fins conversely, are due to get reacquainted with OT Austin Jackson, out since early September, as they shoot for their fifth cover in six home gigs.
When we hear fractured fibula, we assume the affected player is on injured reserve. Not only is Colts QB Daniel Jones active, but he will start. Presumably, a player who relies on his legs and has endured 16 sacks in the past four games might be limited against the league’s premier defense. Houston has registered more interceptions than touchdown passes yielded (12-10). While the Texans have notched three consecutive Ws with backup Davis Mills behind center, they will welcome back starter C.J. Stroud with open meaty arms. Stroud was lights-out in the three wins prior to his injury, with seven TD throws against one pick. Indy's all-universe RB, Jonathan Taylor, is unlikely to run wild. Houston ranks 13th for rush yards allowed.