We hit this prop yesterday to great success, as Slade Cecconi struck out eight M's despite having plus odds on Over 4.5. Pfaadt similarly has a great minor-league track K/9 rate at 11.2, and though he has a larger MLB sample size, his rate at the highest level is a respectable 8.7 K/9 in 125 career innings. The M's remain the only MLB team to strike out at least 10 times per game, and until that changes we'll be look at value to play K Overs against them, which I think we have here with a talented pitcher in Pfaadt with more upside than he's shown in MLB.

The Mariners have won two straight against the Diamondbacks, with the road team scoring just one run in each game and in three straight, a surprise for an offense averaging 5.39 runs per game. They're up against a pitcher in Logan Gilbert who has allowed no more than one run in four of his five starts this year, continuing to dominate before May 1 (2.26 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 91:17 K:BB ratio in 14 career starts with a .549 OPS against). With the M's hot (8-2 in last 10) and the D-Backs not (3-7 in last 10), I have to roll with Seattle at this DraftKings price.

Seven strikeouts is a big number, but it's one Jared Jones has reached in each of his five starts this year while amassing an incredible 39:4 K:BB ratio in 29 innings. The Giants are a middle-of-the-road team in terms of striking out, but two of the last three SPs they faced struck them out six times (one in less than five innings), and the other is a guy in Martin Perez who always posts a low strikeout rate. With Jones' stuff, I think he should be favored to get to seven Ks instead of a 'dog with the market projecting him to pitch into the sixth inning.

Albert Suarez's return to the majors has gone well so far after five years pitching internationally, as he's thrown 5.2 scoreless innings in each of his two starts, building up to 89 pitches in his most recent outing. He's exceeded 15 outs in three of his five starts (including Triple-A) and threw plenty of innings abroad the last few years. This may be his last MLB start for a while with the rotation getting healthier, and I expect him to be at his best against an A's offense that's one of the worst in baseball at 2.75 runs per game, including nine straight games with three runs or fewer. The matchup and the focus of making one final MLB impression should lead to this Over.

The Mariners have been red-hot with eight wins in their last 10, but they're still the only MLB team to strike out more than 10 times per game. Slade Cecconi has just a 6.3 K/9 rate in the majors, which is why this line is so low, but that's based on just 33 innings. He's a 9.2 K/9 rate pitcher in 10 times the innings at the minor-league level, including recording at least five Ks in all four Triple-A starts this year. I like a value play on his Over in the best matchup possible at the MLB level.

Jose Soriano has piled up 19 Ks in 15 IP over three starts, and he gets another high-K team today in the Twins (9.6 per game). But even with that being the case, seven Ks is a lot to ask for. The Twins offense has been running hot with five straight games scoring at least five runs, while Soriano's control has been questionable with eight walks and one HBP in his last two starts. I also don't think we know what his MLB K rate will settle at after pitching as a reliever last year and making just 11 pro starts since 2019 heading into this season. I think he needs to get to six innings to have a reasonable shot at seven Ks.

The Brewers have run very hot in one-run games at 7-1, but they've also lost by more than one run in just seven of their 25 games so far. The Yankees have won by multiple runs nine times in 27 games as they've also been hot in one-run results with a 9-3 record. The Brewers have the better offense (5.36 runs per game and a 115 OPS+ vs. 4.37 runs per game and a 106 OPS+), and Yankees starter Carlos Rodon is due for regression as I don't believe he's pitched to the level of a 2.70 ERA with a 22:13 K:BB ratio. I like a full unit on the run line and half-unit on the money line in this one.

Aaron Civale has seemingly been running hot with a 10.1 K/9 rate that's well above his career mark of 8.2. But it's also significantly down from his post-trade performance with the Rays last year, when he struck out 58 batters in just 45.1 innings. He's hit six Ks in three of five starts this year and gets the awful White Sox offense coming off a rare productive game. The market expects him to get to six innings (-142) and at this point it should count on a strikeout per inning as a Rays pitcher, but it's not.

The market isn't fully buying Mitchell Parker's success in his first two starts, but I don't see why this line is juiced to the Under. He threw 57 of 73 pitches for strikes while blanking the Astros for seven innings and racking up eight Ks in his last outing, and now he gets to face the offense with the worst OPS+ in the league that strikes out about eight times per game. On top of that, Parker has a 11.4 K/9 rate in his minor-league career, so his baseline for Ks should be relatively high. Once he gets more MLB action under his belt, the market will realize this line should've been 5.5 Ks.

The A's took the first game of the series and have a better pitching matchup today, but I think it's a great spot for the Orioles to right the ship. JP Sears has excelled his last three starts thanks largely to allowing just six hits in 17.1 innings but that luck runs out against an offense that's third in runs per game and tied for first in OPS+. Cole Irvin is coming off his best start of the season and gets to face a team that's next to last in runs per game after scoring two or three times in eight straight. This feels like 5-6 runs for the O's and another 2-3 runs for the A's, reflective of their season averages.