Jason's Picks (2 Live)
Jason's Past Picks
Terps 8-3 to over and can hang 90 without really trying and that's what I expect them to do here against the worst defensive team in the Big 10. This gam should resemble last Sun vs Rutgers in many ways and be played in the 160s. Hawkeyes are an under team but routinely have totals in the mid 160s. Iowa allows 84/G and scores 79. Terps starting 5 averages 69/G, tops in the nation. I suspect their bench gets more run here, allowing Iowa to score into the 70s. Terps a strong defensive team but need to get some of top 5 off their feet. Which is why backdoor cover scares me too. Will keep riding their overs. They really run and gun at home.
My suspicion is if anything more people fade the poor kids at Green Bay, playing without a coach. Have to keep fading them as they hit new lows. Second worst offense and defense in the conference and -14.8 margin, while Wright State is basically breaking even scoring in conference. GB 4-17 ATS last 21 and 6-15-2 ATS coming off a loss and 16 of their last 18 losses have been by 9 or more points. Wright State won the first meeting by 23 and has been competitive, going 4-4 last 8. They have not covered well overall but are 6-2 ATS as a favorite of 5 or more and 7-4 ATS as favorite. They have performed well in limited sample working on one day rest.
The Huskers couldn't hold off Maryland's elite offense Thursday but showed well, are playing with a lot of energy, can run multiple bigs at you and have scored ball well this month. Wildcats have won 1 of last 6, including ugly loss to Rutgers at home, and 1-5 ATS in last 6 as well. Just got back from rough trip to Pacific Northwest. Get the sense they know season has slipped away after suffering a major injury blow. Huskers have won 4 of 5, scoring at least 75 in every game. Their style of defense will be problematic for Northwestern. Force you to make baseline threes. Cats 12th in conference from range.
Spreads are finally dropping for Tigers - they win comfortable but just not comfortably enough. Just 3-8 ATS last 11 and 4-8 ATS in conference play, but they have won 12 of their last 13 and 9 of those wins are by 8 points or more. Won by 8 in the first meeting between these teams. They are 6-2 ATS when favored by 7 or less, and 5-4 ATS on road, not bad for a team that doesn't cover much. Tigers are +9.9 in conference and Shockers are -3. Shockers have not covered 5 straight at home and just 3-7-1 in conference and 4-11 ATS in their last 15. Memphis is a top 3 team in scoring and defense; WST avg just 69/G in conference.
Hawks stay hot, scoring 80+ in 8 of 9. They've won 9 in a row in CAA and covered 7 of them. Their last 6 home victories are all by 8+ points. They are a +73 in 7 home games in the CAA and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 at home. Hawks are +9.1 in CAA (1st) and Phoenix are -0.1. Elon is fading fast after a quick start in CAA, getting blown out my middling teams and have yet to play much against conference's top teams. Held below 65 points in 4 of last 6. Have covered 1 of last 6, failing to cover by 13.5, 1.5. 10, 14.5 and 17. Elon 2nd worst FG% in CAA; can't play from behind.
Some people like to back the lesser team after they have already been crushed in the first conference meeting, But sometimes it's just a bad match up. RedHawks won the first meeting by 20 and this series has featured a sweep the last 7 times these teams faced twice in a season, often by big margins. MO 7-3-1 ATS in conference and streaky team has covered 3 straight. They are 5-2 ATS as a favorite of 6-12 points. WMI is 5-10 ATS in last 15. Just 4-7 ATS in conference and 2-8 ATS at home. Been absolutely blown out in 3 straight games. RedHawks +7.1 in MAC and WMI is -6.8. WMI second-worst defensive team in conference, allowing 80.5/G and RedHawks dropped 91 on them.
I expect the Pirates to win this but will take the points. Hampton has won two of last three conference games and three of four overall. Pirates have played just two of their last eight games at home. Hofstra is down this year and especially shoddy on the road. They have lost four in a row and seven of nine They are 3-6 ATS in last nine and 4-8 ATS as a favorite.
I am going to be out of pocket much of Sat - keep monitoring this line. You might be able to get 10. Regardless, Charleston has one win by double digits all season in conference and has failed to cover five of last six as a favorite. Losing their coach and best player from last season has taken a toll. They are 3-7 ATS in last 10. Maryland transfer Jonathan Lamothe is dominating and Aggies coming off best two games of the season. Charleston struggled mightily at home vs Aggies a week ago, scrambling to win by three as 18-point favorites. I like a suddenly confident A&T to keep this close.
The Spartans just cover man. They are 9-2 ATS at home and 11-2-1 ATS in conference and they are playing strong ball despite some recent injuries. The Pack are 2-5 ATS on the road and 4-9 ATS in conference and there is only a few points separating these teams in scoring margin in conference games. Nevada couldn't cover the first meeting despite going 11/15 from three. Nevada's sluggish pace can make it hard to cover, especially on the road. SJSU knows how to keep things close.
These poor kids at Green Bay, stuck with a part-time coach who seems to care more about what's left of his media career than figuring out how to be a D-1 coach. Yikes. GB is 4-16 ATS in last 16, 6-14-2 ATS after a loss, and 3-9-2 ATS in conference The Norse won the first game by 18. Green Bay is 1-9 ATS when getting between 5 and 15 points. NKY is playing decent ball lately against tough teams like North Texas, Robert Morris and Cleveland St. Ten of GB's last 12 losses are by double digits and they do nothing but lose.
These two conspired to play an under game a few weeks back, but the Huskers offense has found another gear since then and Terps can hang 80 on anybody. Both teams are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games. Both can shoot the three-ball. Terps are over in 4 of 5 on the road and Huskers have scored 73+ in 4 of last 5. Last 10 NEB games average 155 points and last 10 UMD games average 151 points. Maryland backcourt will be getting good looks and Selton Miguel making nearly 45% of his threes for MD. Terps almost blew 9 point lead at home in final mins vs NEB at home, and expect them to push pace for all 40 minutes.
OKC might sit guys in this spot but they are a prideful bunch, playing great ball. Even with MIN a shell of what they were a year ago, I expect OKC to come to play. They are far deeper and better and can outrun the Wolves. MIN lost another heartbreaker at home Wednesday. Bad vibes. Wolves 19-8-1 ATS at home and 21-8-1 with equal rest. I like the more prideful team to take care of business here before the ASB. Thunder playing like a team possessed.
ASB is looming and this is a back to back for the Rockets and I could see them leaning into their bench more here. When Whitmore is on he is instant offense and while he was terrible from the floor last night, he is rarely bad two straight games. Warriors perimeter D has been suspect lately (Klay and Kyrie killing them Wed for instance) and Whitmore is over this in 4 of the last 6 games. Could see him pushing 30 minutes tonight. Warriors looked old and tired last night.