Everything I thought about this series was wrong, and I'm looking to cash differently now. KD is not the defensive length monster he was vs MIN regular season, Wolves have adjusted and Suns lack of any inside presence other than Nurkic is a major problem, as is Grayson Allen's injury and KAT rounding back to form. KD had 6 games in reg season where he was +21or better and 3 were against MIN (+79 in total). He's -44 after 2 games! ANT was 13/33 from floor in those 3 reg season games and couldnt get shot off; he's 17/36 thru 2 games and +34. Wolves bench been way better and switch to a road venue doesn't scare me as much with how well they defend.

The Phillies have pen issues. The Phillies paid this guy a boatload of money for years to come to be an ace and that requires you - gasp - pitching into the 7th inning sometimes. I know, crazy right? This to me is one of those spots. His last two starts have totaled 15 1/3 and his arm hasn't fallen off despite registering 46 outs in that span. He's plenty stretched out and I like this payout

Nola has been awesome the last two times out and seems to have found his form from a rough spring. Phillies healthier and hitting the ball well lately. The league is batting .324 off Joe Musgrove in innings 1-5, and he sports a FIP of 5.84 in those innings. I like the momentum the Phils are building, while the Padres tend to be their own worst enemy and have some holes in the lineup with Manny Machado on the IL.

I'm still not sold on Joe Musgrove regaining his form but Aaron Nola's last 2 starters totaled 15 1/3 IP, with 16Ks, 2 BB and 3 ER. Phillies starting to hit the ball as it warms up and with Bryce Harper back in the lineup. Four guys in the likely starting lineup have homered off Musgrove and he's been vulnerable to the long ball, allowing 5 already this season. Padres bullpen got shelled by bad Rockies team Thursday, and are already somewhat compromised heading into the weekend.

Eflin has been pitching like an ace, as we mentioned in our game analysis. Flexen has been horrible and the Pale Hose have been out-scored 37-1 in his stats this season. Yeah, it really is that bad.

The Pale Hose may be the worst team in modern MLB history. It really is that bad. Thet don't do anything well and lack quality everywhere. They are facing a rested Rays team and they are facing their ace in Zach Eflin, who looks like TB latest ridiculous discovery. Chris Flexen has an ERA around 7 and shouldn't be starting games for anyone. Get this: the Sox have been shutout in 4 of his 5 starts and scored 1 run in the other. They have a Run Differential of 37-1 in his starts. This probably should be 2.5 runs by now. Ride this while we still can

The MVP candidate is leading MLB in triples, SLG, OPS+ (+199) and total bases and also has 8 HRs. He's scalding right now and eats suspect righties like Ross Stripling for lunch and the forecast looks good and he had a day off yesterday and that flag court in right field isn't any deeper today than it was last homestand when the O's were wearing it out.

This sweet-swinging lefty bat is getting to play everyday for the first time and looking like the AL ROY favorite. I like him to mash Ross Stripling tonight. Cowser at Camden Yards this season (39 ABs) - 2 HR 5 RBI .379/.419/.690 - 1109 OPS Cowser vs RHP (45 AB)- 4 HR 15 RBI .356/.423/.756 - 1179 OPS Cowser at home vs RHP has a wRC+ of 210 (Gunnar Henderson is actually ahead of him on the team at 254) Get ready to moo with delight when he milks a ball to right field and cashes for us tonight. I'll stop short of saying that will be udderly delicious. Or maybe I won't.

No lead is safe for the O's with the state of their middle relief. Lately leads of 8, 7 and 6 runs have still required the use of all their best high leverage relievers. Can't keep doing that. They are renting Burnes for 1 year and need him to provide length and quality - he's been good not great but this park plays well for him and it's a lineup he should shred. Skipper needs him to get into the 7th; with a great D behind him Burnes smart enough to lean into ground balls and let the gloves do the work.

The O's lineup has few holes 1-8 these days, they have been an excellent team at home for 2 years now and they are refreshed after a day off at home Thurs following a road trip, while the A's battled in the Bronx. Corbin Burnes is overdue for a true ace outing and should provide length here with BAL middle-innings guys a problem. Ross Stripling has been pretty bad (5.34 ERA) and Orioles have all top arms in pen available. Could get ugly