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    Jason La Canfora

    JLC

    Jason La Canfora has been covering the NFL since 2004 and spent 10 years as CBS's NFL Insider for "THE NFL TODAY" and across all platforms. He continues to cover the NFL as an analyst and insider for The Washington Post and gather information from a plethora of sources throughout the game. La Canfora joined SportsLine as a wagering analyst in 2022, giving out weekly best bets and selections throughout the NFL season, appearing on live betting shows and making other regular appearances on CBS Sports HQ and SportsLine. He also contributes regularly to "The Pick Six Podcast" and hosts and contributes to national NFL gambling content for Audacy and The BET QL Network throughout the NFL season. For Jason La Canfora media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.

    JasonLaCanfora

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    Jason's Past Picks

    Feb 17 2024, 7:00 pm UTC
    League
    Delaware
    62
    @ NC A&T
    54
    Analysis:

    Delaware didn't show up at Elon - much to our chagrin - and turned the ball over around 20 times and went 6/14 from the line. Won't happen again here. Delaware beat A&T by 19 at home earlier this season and the home team's last three losses are by 19, 22 and 32. The CAA is a conference of the haves and have nots and this is a total miss-match. Delaware super motivated with conference tourney seeding on the line. Their guards should take this game over and I'm betting on a bounce back performance from the backcourt against a far inferior foe.

    Pick Made: Feb 17, 6:44 pm UTC
    Feb 17 2024, 7:00 pm UTC
    League
    Towson
    61
    @ Hampton
    67
    Analysis:

    Towson is probably the best team in the CAA right now and the Pirates are 0-13 in conference. Hampton's last two losses have been by 20 and 30 points and I don't see them rallying much at home today. Towson's balanced inside-outside game should give Hampton fits and Tigers deep bench I believe can defend against a backdoor cover. Towson 4-1 ATS last 5 on road; Hampton's 3 games against top 5 CAA teams so far have resulted in losses of 21 (Charleston), 34 (Drexel) and 27 (Delaware).

    Pick Made: Feb 17, 6:30 pm UTC
    Feb 16 2024, 12:00 am UTC
    League
    Delaware
    67
    @ Elon
    73
    Analysis:

    In the CAA, 4 teams get bye in tourney and surging Delaware fighting for one of them. No reason to letdown here. Elon 0-8 ATS in CAA as dog (DEL 4-2 ATS on road in conference) and overall margin/G is -7.8. Vs top 6 CAA teams like DEL, Elon is 0-4; losses by: 12, 18, 20, 25. Have played soft schedule and still rank last in def rebounding and Delaware is more physical. Blue Hens also top CAA in 3-point % and opponent 3-point %; Elon has attempted 3rd most 3s in conference. My kids and I go to a lot of CAA games; these two teams headed in opposite directions. I love DEL over 76.5 points, too. Elon allows 80/G in CAA

    Pick Made: Feb 15, 4:30 pm UTC
    Feb 15 2024, 1:30 am UTC
    League
    San Antonio
    93
    @ Dallas
    116
    Analysis:

    The Mavs have been boosted big time by the arrival of C Daniel Gafford (will jump his rebound over when it populates) at the trade deadline and that should open things up a little more for Luka. He grabbed 11 boards Monday even with Gafford snatching 17 in just 24 minutes. He has triple doubles in both meetings with SA already this season and the Spurs are 26th in contested rebound % and 24th in rebound %. I think he smells another triple double here at home before going into the break. I'm sprinkling at +200. Somebody comes within spitting distance of one vs Spurs with decent regularity.

    Pick Made: Feb 14, 5:35 pm UTC
    Feb 15 2024, 1:00 am UTC
    League
    Washington
    126
    @ New Orleans
    133
    Analysis:

    In three games without Daniel Gafford the Wiz have allowed 49, 49 (to Philly without Embid) and 56 rebounds to opponents. They are a horrible defensive team and exerted a lot of energy at Dallas Monday night. Peep the recent box scores - even point guards are grabbing 7+ rebounds lately and is averaging just under 5.5/G since Jan. 1. He's over this in 3 of his last 5 home games and the Pels brutal schedule has skewed the numbers but I see him easily going over his season rebound avg against this outfit.

    Pick Made: Feb 14, 5:45 pm UTC
    Feb 11 2024, 11:30 pm UTC
    League
    San Francisco
    22
    @ Kansas City
    25
    +1375
    43-25 in Last 68 NFL Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    Andy Reid knows his tackles are limited in pass protection and as much as the 49ers pass rush has suffered in last six weeks, they still have some dudes. I see ample opportunity for Pacheco to control the clock for what has become a TOP team. and get to 70 rushing yards in the process. He will have more explosive runs against this D than at Baltimore and also better field conditions to do so. I am banking on 20-plus carries and figure this number grows by kickoff, especially if Chiefs get some good news on the injury front. Pacheco wasn't himself at Baltimore but two weeks off will make a huge difference

    Pick Made: Jan 29, 8:50 pm UTC
    Feb 11 2024, 11:30 pm UTC
    League
    San Francisco
    22
    @ Kansas City
    25
    +1375
    43-25 in Last 68 NFL Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    The Ravens let KC off the hook by refusing to run the ball, but that's the way to attack them and Kyle Shanahan knows it. There should be opportunities for others besides CMC, and I like this play over guys like Mason or Mitchell. Deebo shows up big away from home, SF runs more on road (with Kittle more of a blocker). 11 personnel is a change-of-pace run package for this heavy team; Deebo avg 7.1/carry out of 11 (most on team besides Purdy). Deebo avg 3 rush for 21 yards on road/2-8 home. Is over this in 5 of 8 away from home. Was hurt in GB game; other 10 playoff games avg 5 carries/G at 5.7 YPC. Shoulder better with 2 weeks off

    Pick Made: Jan 31, 2:54 pm UTC
    Feb 11 2024, 11:30 pm UTC
    League
    San Francisco
    22
    @ Kansas City
    25
    +1375
    43-25 in Last 68 NFL Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    Baltimore didnt run the ball on this defense but it's very vulnerable and Kyle Shanahan won't make the same mistake. Running left behind HOF tackle Trent Williams is a sure thing, and KC is 28th in the NFL allowing almost 5 yards/carry to that side (and they see a lot of it, 6th most). Shanahan knows his pass protection is suspect and his QB is still figuring some things out. He will lean heavily into the run game and CMC in outside zone rushes. CMC is over this in 7 of last 8 games. I don't see them down by 17 like last time out, changing game script to pass-heavy, and this KC secondary is far superior to its run front. Lot of 2 deep

    Pick Made: Jan 29, 9:34 pm UTC
    Feb 11 2024, 11:30 pm UTC
    League
    San Francisco
    22
    @ Kansas City
    25
    +1375
    43-25 in Last 68 NFL Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    We told you Big Red will stick with the heavy personnel usage even against the Ravens top ranked D with their great LBs. And he did, using 2 or more TEs on 45% of the snaps. Reid in 13 Personnel 19% in playoffs (7% regular season). Gray cashed this Sunday and tied a season-high with 5 TAR and had 2nd highest in TAR% of season. He's played 59 more snaps than TE3 (Bell) in playoffs and Mahomes trusts him. Kelce will be smothered after catching all 11 targets. Easy pop passes to TE2 gets us cash again. Hits in 8 of last 11 games played away from Arrowhead this season.

    Pick Made: Jan 30, 3:48 pm UTC
    Feb 11 2024, 11:30 pm UTC
    League
    San Francisco
    22
    @ Kansas City
    25
    +1375
    43-25 in Last 68 NFL Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    Steve Spagnuolo with all this time to prepare, and some very interesting film to watch on this young QB dating back to the Ravens game. His blitz principles can mimic some of what Ravens DC Mike Macdonald did to contuse and turnover Purdy, SF has a leaky OL and Purdy's abb accuracy has been shaky, especially early in games and this is the biggest game of all. Spags will have some Cover-3 and Cover-6 looks to pick up where others have left off. They can get some tipped balls vs the right side of the line. Chiefs corners are stout.

    Pick Made: Jan 29, 9:06 pm UTC
    Feb 11 2024, 11:30 pm UTC
    League
    San Francisco
    22
    @ Kansas City
    25
    +1375
    43-25 in Last 68 NFL Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    Andy Reid trusts his defense to great lengths, as displayed in the AFC title game. He can skew conservative and he has one of the best kickers in NFL history, who has great range, and is 28/32 on FG in the playoffs and 61/64 on extra points. Butker loves this stadium and has tried 23 kicks there since it opener, more than anywhere but Arrowhead. He's 4/5 FG and 18/18 (XP) there and has tried 2+ FGs in 5 of the last 6 Chiefs playoff games and 8 of the last 12. He's tried 2+ in 3 of 5 road/neutral playoff games. SF has 37 FGA against in 19 total games (2/G). We know KC has RZ issues this season. Reid will be risk-averse.

    Pick Made: Feb 04, 7:36 pm UTC
    Feb 11 2024, 11:30 pm UTC
    League
    San Francisco
    22
    @ Kansas City
    25
    +75
    2-1 in Last 3 NFL Team Props Picks
    Analysis:

    I get this isn't the best Chiefs passing game of the Mahomes/Reid era, but this is a stadium the Chiefs know well, perfect conditions for pitch and catch and plenty of time to prepare. Mahomes has played 6 games indoors and been held below 27 once (17 at Indy in '22). SF D has issues and play action could be a real problem for them in this game. KC was able to sit on the ball at Baltimore in scoring 17, but I don't see that luxury here. I also think KC defense can provide a short field or two for quick scoring. And they have a stud kicker. 49ers points allowed last 5 games they played starters - 29, 33, 10 (WSH), 21, 31

    Pick Made: Jan 29, 9:57 pm UTC
    Feb 11 2024, 11:30 pm UTC
    League
    San Francisco
    22
    @ Kansas City
    25
    +1375
    43-25 in Last 68 NFL Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    20 is the new 15 with Andy Reid in terms of running the football. He started running it much more during the second half last season and has ridden it since Week 13 when Pacheco got healthy and seems intent on getting him 20 carries. Even like on Sunday when it wasn't really going anywhere. They can get Joe Thuney back for this game and really road-grade a 49ers D that stinks against middle runs - KC leads NFL in middle run percentage since Week 13, and that's all Pacheco.

    Pick Made: Jan 29, 8:47 pm UTC
    Feb 11 2024, 11:30 pm UTC
    League
    San Francisco
    22
    @ Kansas City
    25
    +1375
    43-25 in Last 68 NFL Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    Purdy needs all the help he can get in this game against an elite defense and top coordinator. His legs have become a thing for him more in the playoffs and this return is worth the risk. When Steve Spagnuolo does blitz the kid QB will be looking to scoot and I also anticipate far more zone coverage from Spags than in regular season and tighter downfield coverage, leading to Purdy scooting himself. Especially when in empty (SF tied for 5th most plays out of empty this season including playoffs). Could see a kneel down at the half if backed up with Kyle Shanahan conservative about such things. His newfound wheels will be front of mind after helping key comeback over Lions.

    Pick Made: Feb 11, 4:52 pm UTC
    Feb 11 2024, 11:30 pm UTC
    League
    San Francisco
    22
    @ Kansas City
    25
    +1375
    43-25 in Last 68 NFL Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    Juice has 68 catches over three seasons (including playoffs); four were under this (6%). He averages 10 YPC in that span and tends to show up more often when the season is on the line (like last week or like the 49ers last SB trip (3 catches for 39 yards). The way this is priced if you believe he is going to catch a ball (-150), then the odds are overwhelming that barring it being a 1-yard TD catch, that reception will top two yards, for much better value. KC allowed 5 more catches to RBs last week, they've allowed 3rd most since Week 8, and he runs a lot of RB routes (and TE). The underneath stuff is a problem for a 2-deep defense.

    Pick Made: Jan 30, 3:21 pm UTC