Jason's Picks (6 Live)
Will a change of venue alter the tenor of these beatdowns? ...
Jason's Past Picks
Another series in Sac Town! You fired up? We're back on the overs. Kumar Rocker has a great start last time out but it's been mostly shaky with him. JP Sears is hit or miss for the A's. The Rangers' lineup been sluggish but we know they can mash and this park will suit them well. The A's entered Tuesday 6-3 Over at home and the Rangers were 6-3 Over on the road (1-12 at home). The ball really carries in this park.
Could we be getting a heavy dose of the four bigs look the Rockets dabbled with last game? Does that invite too many three-balls for the Warriors? Do the Rockets have a choice to try to make this a series? They can absolutely dominate the offensive boards and live on second-chance shots and I expect Steven Adams minutes to tick up some here, with or without Alperen Sengun on the hardwood. Do we think Draymond of Quinten Post will keep him from dominating the boards again after grabbing 12 in 20 mins at home in Game 1?
The Heat certainly improved defensively down the stretch once they got over the Himmy Butler trade. But the Cavs can score in waves and only of their bench players made shots in Game 1 (Ty Jerome obviously went off) and Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen were tepid offensively and Cavs still hung 120 on them. Heat will make some adjustments but starters going combined -66 has to concern them. Cavs have scored 113+ in 7 straight at home and 15 of the last 20. Donovan Mitchell looks playoff possessed. Cavs averaged 122.7/G at home for season. Yeah, playoffs are different but they also will push pace vs a team that doesn't want to run like that.
The Orioles aren't very good but everyone hits Trevor Williams. The league is batting .325 off him. Most importantly, he gives up heavy flyball contact and already 3 HRs' that's the only way the O's score and they only hit righties. Tomo Sugano pitches scared quite a bit and while the Nats lineup tends to swing and miss too much, this guy misses no bats. The Nats' pen is the worst in MLB. Would expect the Orioles to try to bounce back from another humiliating night at the plate.
I don't buy the Royals' offense much, but they are better at home and Kris Bubic is looking like an absolute stud on the mound. This Rockies team has 4 wins, folks, and they have a .290 OBP vs lefties. Ryan Feltner was an auto-fade for me last year, the cast around him is worse and he walked 6 Dodgers in 2 2/3 last time out. We might just need one run from the Royals here.
If OKC wasn't up by 50 and if they had kept up the intensity with their starters, they could have scored 150 on Memphis in the opener. We have been playing Grizz opponents' TT overs for months. No reason to stop now. The Thunder have fresher legs and got to manage minutes in Game 1. Memphis was a broken defensive team since Jan. They allowed 118/G in the final 10 games facing teams nowhere as gifted offensively as the Thunder. They foul way too much and were bottom 6 in points allowed off TO in the final 10 games, too. Warts remained exposed in play-in and playoffs. The last 7 meetings (including playoffs) have resulted in OKC dropping: 131, 125, 120, 125, 130, 118, 124.
Appears to be quite a match-up problem for the Bucks team that lacks sufficient inter-changeable pieces on defense. Their drop coverage allows for great looks outside and in the mid range and Brook Lopez appears particularly vulnerable here. Do we think Kyle Kuzma is gonna pretend to defend anyone? No Kris Middleton seems to be kind of a big deal here. Turner quite likely to attempt more than just 12 shots tonight and get to the line more than twice as well. Wouldn't be shocked if he dropped 22+ with the Pacers opening it up smelling blood vs a less athletic opponent.
Does Dane Lillard's return do much for Bucks sagging defense? Is he going to be able to matchup with Myles Turner in the mid range or be able to run around with TJ McConnell and Tyreese Haliburton all over the court? Kyle Kuzma wouldn't be any worse for MIL but will he be much better? Bucks will shoot the three-ball better but this still looks like a bad matchup for them. Their lack of depth concerns me. The Pacers have won 16 of their last 20 games, including playoffs, since a three-game losing skid in early March. They've won 14 of their last 16 at home. Bucks will push them more here but likely have to try to turn this series when they get home.
The Orioles are an abject failure against LHP despite their foolish GM doing nothing to upgrade their lineup this offseason except add suspect RH bats to hit lefties. The O's rank 29th in BA (.184), 28th in OBP (.259) and 30th in SLG (.253!) vs LHP. Mitchell Parker is a smoke-and-mirror lefty without elite velo, exactly the type that has crushed the Orioles for years. Dean Kremer is generally terrible before May every year. Baltimore is a terrible fielding team and while the Nats' lineup has issues, James Wood is a stud who grew up rooting for the O's and will be locked in. I have to see the Orioles even show up vs a lefty before I don't fade them here.