George Pickens is playing like a No. 1 receiver. ...

The Lions will be without corners Terrion Arnold and D.J. Reed and safety Kerby Joseph, enhancing the matchup for disgruntled wideout A.J. Brown. Despite the negative publicity he has generated, Brown continues to destroy man coverage (second-most yards vs. man in the NFL). The Lions play man at the fourth-highest rate. Look for Brown to make at least one long catch Sunday night.

This is an all-in spot for the Chiefs, who are coming off their bye following a loss that dropped them to 5-4. Bo Nix continues to play poorly against better defenses, and K.C.'s certainly qualifies. Look for Andy Reid to improve to 23-4 straight-up in games immediately following a regular-season bye, and for Patrick Mahomes to improve to 14-1 against the Broncos. I like the Chiefs' offense to find a lot of success against a Denver defense missing Patrick Surtain and Alex Singleton.

The Browns have played three home games, giving up 11 points per game and 3.5 yards per play. They're facing a loaded Ravens offense, but with Lamar Jackson perhaps not at 100 percent. Jackson has rushed 14 times for only 50 yards in two games since returning from his hamstring injury. With rain and wind in the forecast, I'm expecting a low-scoring, tight Ravens win.

Seahawks rookie safety Nick Emmanwori hurt his ankle in Week 1 and didn't return until Week 5. He's played four full games, clearing this prop total in three of them and registering 26 tackles over that span. The Seahawks love using him close to the line of scrimmage, which increases his opportunities. This is a great matchup against a strong Rams' offense. Emmanwori is a special player, the reigning NFL Rookie of the Week. Look for him to be extremely active in Sunday's NFC West showdown.

The Seahawks haven't needed to throw much in several games. Last week, for instance, Darnold threw 12 passes. But Sunday's showdown with the Rams figures to be different, with Seattle a field-goal underdog. LA can pressure the QB but it doesn't possess an elite secondary. Daniel Jones threw for 262 yards against the Rams and Mac Jones went over 300 yards twice. LA has also taken advantage of bad QBs like Tyler Shough, Cam Ward and Cooper Rush. Darnold will need to throw, and he's got great weapons.

Terrance Ferguson has gotten three or more targets in three straight games. He leads the Rams in average depth of target. The Seahawks are tough to run against, but they have been vulnerable to tight ends. Look for Ferguson to make at least one catch for 15-plus yards.

Cardinals safety Jalen Thompson made just 14 combined tackles in his last three games, but this is a terrific matchup with the 49ers. San Fran is the only team that has generated 160 tackles for opposing defensive backs. The Cards are dealing with key injuries in their secondary. Thompson recorded six tackles against San Fran earlier this season, and I think he has a good chance to hit seven Sunday.

Jaylen Warren wasn't the problem in LA, as Pittsburgh mustered a season-low 221 yards. He averaged five yards per carry and caught both his targets for 21 yards. Look for the Steelers to use him more in a must-win game against Cincinnati. (He only played 24 snaps in the 25-10 loss to the Chargers). Warren erupted for 158 yards from scrimmage in the first meeting, and he could do similar damage Sunday against a Bengals' defense getting shredded by opposing backs.

Since returning two games ago from injury, Aaron Jones has been extremely productive as a runner and receiver. Last week vs. Baltimore, Jones recorded season highs in snap share, carry share and route participation. He should get 12-15 touches in this matchup. Look for a big game from Jones against a Bears team that gives up 5.4 yards per carry on the road.

The Bears aren't as good as their record; they've faced the second-easiest schedule of opposing defenses. Now they visit a desperate Vikings team that is mostly healthy on defense (Jonathan Greenard's status is up in the air for Week 11). Chicago has given up 6.6 yards per play over its last three games and would have lost at home to the lowly Giants had Jaxson Dart not gotten hurt.

Parker Washington returned to practice Thursday, and Brian Thomas Jr. and Brenton Strange are practicing too. There's a good chance all three suit up Sunday vs. the Chargers, helping a disjointed Trevor Lawrence. Travis Etienne also could find some running room against an LA defense allowing 4.9 yards per carry. Jacksonville is 3-1 at home, including victories over the Chiefs and Texans. The lone loss was 20-12 to Seattle. While the surging Chargers deserve to be favored, I like taking a full field goal with the hosts.

Josh Allen has rushed for five touchdowns in five home games. He's missing one of his top targets in tight end Dalton Kincaid. With the inclement weather in Buffalo, I expect Allen to rush for a score vs. Tampa Bay.

The Dolphins continue to get ripped by opposing tight ends. Zach Ertz has earned a target share of at least 20 percent in four of his past five games. Washington is without Terry McLaurin and Treylon Burks. Over the past five games, Miami has given up 43 targets and 36 catches to opposing tight ends.

The Commanders have lost five straight, the last four all coming by at least 21 points. Washington gave up 8.0 yards per play in Sunday's 44-22 home loss to Detroit. While Miami has a ton of flaws, the Dolphins are getting great performances from De'Von Achane (5.5 ypc, 9 total TDs) and Jaylen Waddle. It's also clear this team is playing hard for Mike McDaniel. Miami is 3-7 with three heartbreaking losses on its resume. Look for the Dolphins to finally string together two wins in a row.