Larry's Picks (2 Live)
Bucks forward Ousmane Dieng is making his case to be Milwaukee's starting small forward of the future. The 2022 lottery pick has shown terrific passing skills, part of an all-around game that's blossoming with major minutes. Milwaukee is so short-handed for this regular-season finale, I expect Dieng to play at least 30 minutes and possibly close to 40.
The Angels have won all three of Jose Soriano's starts, which is no surprise given his 0.45 ERA and 0.65 WHIP. Soriano's dominance appears to be sustainable given his increased velocity and improved knuckle-curve. Andrew Abbott has been solid for the host Reds. But the Halos' offense has performed better lately, ranking 10th in OPS over the past seven days compared to Cincy's 21st ranking. Take the Angels in Sunday's rubber game.
With Portland vying for the No. 8 seed and currently sitting one game behind the Clippers, expect another huge workload for Deni Avdija. He has played 37, 40 and 38 minutes this month. Avdija has faced the Clippers three times this season, racking up seven, nine and 11 boards. The 11-rebound performance came March 31 in LA. Look for Avdija to grab seven-plus rebounds for the fifth time in his last seven games.
Paolo Banchero has cleared this prop total just once in the past five games. But this is a terrific matchup against the short-handed Bulls, who play at a fast pace. Banchero should play a ton of minutes with Orlando just one game out of the No. 6 seed. I like Banchero to grab at least nine boards at plus money.
The Marlins have been hammering right-handed pitching, and I like them to at least be tied through five innings versus Tigers starter Keider Montero. Detroit has lost five straight and nine of 11. The Tigers also just lost CF Parker Meadows to a concussion. Back the Marlins in the first five.
Jayson Tatum has scored 23-plus points in five straight games, including a 32-point outburst at Charlotte on March 29. Boston is close to clinching the No. 2 seed so the motivation is there for the Celtics to go all-out. This profiles as a competitive game, so we should get 30-35 minutes from Tatum.
Dan Hurley is 11-0 ATS from the Sweet 16 onward, but this is not a good matchup for UConn. The Huskies' top player in this run, 6-11 Tarris Reed Jr., will face a towering Michigan front line. The Wolverines have been so good in the NCAA Tournament (five wins by 13-plus points), they are reminding people of Hurley's 2024 team that won every March Madness game by at least 14 points. Look for Elliot Cadeau to play a lot better than he did in the semis (5 for 17, six turnovers) as Michigan pulls away late and covers its fifth straight.
Jarrett Allen has been highly efficient in three games since returning from injury. He’s had plenty of rest in advance of this plus-matchup with the depleted Grizzlies. And his minutes have steadily increased. Back Allen for at least 24 points and rebounds.
Atlanta has won 13 straight home games and is 18-2 SU in its last 20 games overall, with 16 of those wins by double digits. The Knicks have lost their last five games to teams above .500, and New York is just 21-19 SU on the road. Both teams are healthy. But the Hawks arguably have more to play for as they try to avoid the play-in tournament. You could argue the Knicks, currently the No. 3 seed, would benefit from dropping to the fourth seed so they could avoid Boston in the conference semis. Not that New York won't go all-out, but we've already heard Mike Brown say he wants to keep some wrinkles hidden from potential playoff opponents. Red-hot Atlanta is among them.
The Jazz are expected to get blown out at OKC, but that should not affect Kyle Filipowski’s minutes. He has played 24 to 31 minutes in the past five games, clearing this prop total each time. A Thunder massacre could work to our advantage with Filipowski facing mostly reserves in the second half.
West Virginia has found different sources of offense in the College Basketball Crown, including 6-7 freshman DJ Thomas. When the Mountaineers don’t have to rely exclusively on Honor Huff, they’re tough to beat. Oklahoma has the superior scorers but West Virginia should slow the game down. Ross Hodge’s team is still riding the momentum of an unlikely comeback vs. Stanford and can take this to the wire.
Brandon Ingram is shooting 41.9 percent from deep since the All-Star Break. He's faced the Celtics twice this season, going 4 of 7 and 3 of 7 from beyond the arc. Boston has given up an average of 20 3-pointers over its last three games. For the season, the Celtics have given up the fifth-most 3-pointers (14.1 per game). Look for Ingram to make at least two treys Sunday.
Arizona scored at will inside the arc throughout its Sweet 16 matchup with Arkansas and after halftime of the Elite Eight game against Purdue. The Wildcats don’t like to take a lot of threes; that could prove problematic against the nation’s No. 1 defense. Michigan has the size and connectivity to bother Arizona’s normally unstoppable 2-point offense. The Wolverines hold opponents to 44 percent inside the arc. In a titanic matchup of peaking teams, I like Michigan to execute late, win and cover.