If there's anything Bruce Weber teams have always done well, it's defend, and this Kansas State team isn't any different. The Wildcats rank 6th nationally in defensive efficiency according to KenPom and forced 18 turnovers against TCU on Thursday. In their loss to Iowa State earlier this season the Cyclones got hot from three, hitting 14 of 24. That's an outlier, not an expectation. In the first meeting, a KSU win, the Cyclones were held to only 0.93 points per possession. I expect a similar game in Kansas City.

Kansas State has won four in a row, while Iowa State has lost three of four. But the Cyclones are due for a resurgence, they're too talented to be kept down. They handled the Wildcats by 14 in Manhattan the last time these teams met. I think Iowa State wins and covers.