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    Jimmy Garoppolo to Raiders: Sportsbooks, proven model keep Las Vegas' Super Bowl 58 odds at same longshot range

    Jimmy Garoppolo is signing with the Las Vegas Raiders.
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    Once the betting favorites to sign Tom Brady or trade for Aaron Rodgers, the Los Angeles Raiders have instead settled on their best non-Hall of Famer option, signing former 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to a three-year deal. That move didn't make much of a ripple at the various sportsbooks or in the SportsLine Projection Model regarding the Raiders' 2023 NFL futures. Las Vegas will host Super Bowl 58.

    Garoppolo was the best free-agent QB on an otherwise thin market and signed for three years and $67.5 million, including $34 million guaranteed. He will be reunited with Raiders coach Josh McDaniels, who served as the Patriots' offensive coordinator during Garoppolo's three years in New England. Garoppolo started just two games during their shared tenure in Foxborough. Presumably, this means the Raiders will not take a quarterback with the No. 7 overall pick in the first round of next month's draft.

    Garoppolo is a solid QB who had a 42-19 record with San Francisco, including the playoffs, but he simply can't stay healthy. How much of an upgrade on Derek Carr is he? Last year with the Raiders, Carr completed 60.8% of his passes for 3,522 yards, 24 touchdowns and 14 picks in 15 games, good for a rating of 86.3. Garoppolo completed 67.2% of his passes for 2,437 yards, 16 TDs and four picks with the Niners, good for a rating of 103.0.

    So, quite a bit better. However, the Raiders' odds to win Super Bowl 58 at BetMGM have stayed at +4000 with this signing, and the SportsLine Projection Model forecasts the Raiders for nearly identical 2023 numbers with Carr as with Garoppolo, although he clearly is an upgrade in Jarrett Stidham, who started the final two games last year. At Caesars Sportsbook, Garoppolo is +2000 to win NFL Comeback Player of the Year. 

    With Jimmy G off the market, that takes the only non-New York Jets option off the table for Rodgers. If the Jets can't get Rodgers, they could be in quite a bit of trouble -- their best QB from last year, Mike White, has signed with the Dolphins. 

    LAS VEGAS     WINSWIN%        DIVISION      PLAYOFF     CONF    CHAMP
    w/ Stidham741.20%3.70%14.40%0.60%0.20%
    w/ Garoppolo7.342.90%5.50%19.00%0.80%0.30%
    Difference0.31.80%1.80%4.60%0.20%0.10%

    So which 2023 Fantasy baseball busts, breakouts, and sleepers should you target or fade in your drafts? Visit SportsLine's Fantasy baseball cheat sheets now to get rankings for every single position, all from the model that called Joey Votto's disappointing season, and find out. 

    Matt SeveranceSeverance Pays

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