Super Bowl 56 odds: Buffalo Bills will win first championship according to this defensive trend

How the Buffalo Bills were upset Week 1 at home by the lousy Pittsburgh Steelers remains baffling, but the Bills have been the most dominant team in the NFL in the three games since, outscoring their opponents 118-21. While Buffalo remains a +800 third-favorite at Caesars Sportsbook to win Super Bowl 56 next February in Los Angeles, one trend hints the franchise finally will capture a championship.

The Bills blanked the Houston Texans 40-0 on Sunday and also blanked Miami 35-0 in Week 2 – granted, not exactly two stellar offenses, but a shutout is a shutout. Buffalo is the third team since 1990 to record two shutouts in its first four games of a season. The other two won the Super Bowl: Baltimore Ravens (2000) and Washington (1991).

The 2000 Ravens set a modern-era record by allowing just 10.3 points per game that season. Buffalo is allowing 11.0, while also leading in total defense (216.8 ypg), against the pass (148.8 ypg) and in takeaways (11).

Let's not forget Josh Allen and the offense. Buffalo's three-game stretch of 118 points scored is the second-highest in franchise history behind 142 points in the final three of the 2020 regular season. Allen had a passer rating of 103.8 on Sunday against Houston and the Bills are now 18-1 all-time when he has a triple-digit rating. Overall, Buffalo's point differential of plus-90 leads the league by a mile, with Arizona next at plus 55. The team already has a two-game lead in the AFC East (-500 favorite) with the other three clubs 1-3.  

Despite all that, the Bills opened as 3.5-point underdogs Sunday night in an AFC Championship Game rematch in Kansas City. That spread already has dropped to -2.5. Kansas City's offense ranks third in yards gained (427.5 a game) and tied for second in scoring (33.5).

The winner would hold a potentially huge head-to-head playoff tiebreaker, which was the case last year. The Bills are 2-0 at home and 0-3 on the road in the playoffs under Coach Sean McDermott and lost the AFC title game at Arrowhead Stadium in January, 38-24.

The Chiefs remain +550 favorites to win Super Bowl 56 followed by the Bucs at +600. Buffalo visits Tampa Bay in Week 12. That might be the only other time the Bills are underdogs. A Buffalo win Sunday likely would jump it into the Super Bowl-favored role also depending what Tampa Bay does vs. Miami. 

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