loading...

2020 NFL Win Totals: Where is the early money going?

SportsLine spoke with Nick Bogdanovich, William Hill's director of trading, and found three high-profile NFL teams bettors are fading.
Hero Image

William Hill sportsbooks usually release win totals after the NFL Draft.

But with the wagering menu severely diminished this spring, oddsmakers decided to roll them out early and get the betting conversation going.

"We didn't have all the information," Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading for William Hill US, told SportsLine about releasing win totals three days into NFL free agency. "We looked at the win totals and records for the last couple years, any coaching or QB changes, plus we know which way people like to bet, and just threw up a number.

"These numbers aren't concrete, there's no money in the pool yet," he added. "We're in the ballpark."

Eventually, the win totals will draw a ton of action. So far, Bogdanovich said, William Hill has taken money on just three teams.

The defending NFC North-champion Packers drew Under money on their win total of 10, and so did Tom Brady's current and former teams, the Buccaneers (9) and Patriots (9). In each case, William Hill adjusted the juice on those teams.

As of Wednesday, no teams had drawn significant Over action.

Early bets typically come from sharp players looking to scalp or middle bets made elsewhere. This year, other books opened Green Bay at 9 or 9.5 wins.

"We had a higher number for the Packers than someone else," Bogdanovich said. "The Packers are pretty darn good, Rodgers is still hungry and people tend to bet the Packers' Over. At the end of the betting cycle, I'm sure we'll need the Under."

SportsLine's model went 18-11 (62.1 percent) with three pushes on NFL win total picks last year. See its 2020 picks for all 32 teams.

With Brady teaming up with Bruce Arians, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and O.J. Howard on a potential offensive juggernaut, the Bucs likely will be preseason darlings. But Bogdanovich feels the hype might be justified.

"The defense came on late last year and if Winston didn't turn the ball over 40 times, they probably would have made the playoffs," he said. "As long as Brady has anything left in the tank, they figure to be a factor for sure."

Win totals have gotten so popular, books will have major decisions on several teams.

Last year, the Dolphins represented the biggest swing. Bettors hammered the Under all the way from 5 to 4.5 to 4 wins, a massive adjustment considering how many times William Hill increased the juice to avoid changing the win total.

"That was by far the biggest decision and we got lucky," Bogdanovich recalled. "All they did [to get to 5 wins] was win at New England as a 17-point underdog on the final day of the regular season."

Here is every team's 2020 NFL win total at William Hill (Odds current at time of publication):

AFC

Kansas City Chiefs 11.5 (Over -140)

Baltimore Ravens 11.5 (Over -130)

Buffalo Bills 9

New England Patriots 9 (Under -115)

Pittsburgh Steelers 9 (Over -125)

Cleveland Browns 8.5

Indianapolis Colts 8.5 (Over -125)

Tennessee Titans 8.5 (Over -120)

Houston Texans 8 (Over -125)

Denver Broncos 7.5 (Under -120)

Las Vegas Raiders 7.5

Los Angeles Chargers 7.5

New York Jets 6.5 (Over -120)

Miami Dolphins 6 (Over -120)

Cincinnati Bengals 5 (Over -135)

Jacksonville Jaguars 4.5 (Over -130)

NFC

New Orleans Saints 10.5

San Francisco 49ers 10.5 (Over -150)

Green Bay Packers 10 (Under -125)

Dallas Cowboys 9.5

Philadelphia Eagles 9.5 (Under -125)

Seattle Seahawks 9.5 (Over -120)

Los Angeles Rams 9 (Under -140)

Minnesota Vikings 9 (Under -115)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9 (Over -135)

Chicago Bears 8.5 (Over -120)

Atlanta Falcons 7.5 (Over -120)

Arizona Cardinals 6.5 (Over -140)

Detroit Lions 6.5 (Under -120)

New York Giants 6.5 (Under -115)

Carolina Panthers 5.5 (Under -125)

Washington Redskins 5.5

Larry HartsteinSenior Analyst