New York Mets MLB futures odds: Sinking Mets now solid betting favorites to miss playoffs; manager Luis Rojas reportedly safe

At the MLB All-Star break about a month ago, the New York Mets were 47-40 and held a 6.5-game lead atop the NL East – they were heavily favored to win it. Today, the Mets are 56-55 and third in the division, 2.5 games behind the red-hot Philadelphia Phillies, who swept a weekend series with New York. To make the playoffs, the Mets are now +180 underdogs on the Caesars Sportsbook MLB futures odds with no at -220.

Remember, there are just two wild-card spots in each league this year. MLB owners wanted to keep it at four in each like in the shortened 2020 season, but the MLB Players' Association wouldn't agree without something in return. If the Mets can't win the East (+225 to do so at Caesars, with the Braves +220 and Phillies +120, they probably aren't getting a wild-card spot because they are seven games back of the San Diego Padres, who hold the second spot. Either the Dodgers or Giants, whomever doesn't win the NL West, almost surely will get the top wild-card spot.

The SportsLine Projection Model forecasts the Mets to finish with just 79.8 victories, which clearly wouldn't be enough for the playoffs. The model gives them a 5.0 percent shot at the postseason, which equates to a moneyline price of +1900.

The injury to ace Jacob deGrom, who at one point was the betting favorite for both the NL Cy Young and MVP, obviously hasn't helped matters. He hasn't pitched since July 7 and won't before September – if he even does at all again in 2021. Taijuan Walker had been terrific this year until around the time MLB started cracking down on foreign substances. Walker is yet to win a game since the break.

Star shortstop Francisco Lindor has been out since July 16 due to injury and isn't all that close to returning. To make matters worse, the team's big in-season trade acquisition, shortstop/second baseman Javy Baez, left Sunday's loss with a hip injury. The team is still awaiting an MRI. Baez has had a few big hits since coming over from the Cubs at the trade deadline but is batting an ugly .176 with New York, having struck out 13 times in nine games.

The Mets are averaging just 2.72 runs over their past 18 games, going 5-13, and rank 28th out of 30 teams in MLB with an average of 3.75 runs scored per game. Slugger and Home Run Derby champ Pete Alonso is in a 0-for-21 slump.

Many Mets fans want manager Luis Rojas fired today, but the New York Post reported today that his job is safe: "a source familiar with Steve Cohen's thinking said the owner is not holding the manager responsible for the poor play."

Perhaps Monday's day off is just what the Mets needed – their first day off since July 22. New York will be favored in each of a three-game set vs. Washington starting Tuesday but then plays 13 straight against the Giants and Dodgers. 

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