William Hill Sportsbook released its 2021 Major League Baseball win totals late last week. They will certainly change some over the next six weeks or so with injuries, trades, etc., ahead of April 1 Opening Day, but the Cincinnati Reds are given an Over/Under win total of 81.5, with both options priced -110 on the moneyline. The Reds have finished Under their total eight straight seasons, easily the longest streak in the majors.
The SportsLine Projection Model will release its win totals soon, but the well-regarded (but often wrong) PECOTA from Baseball Prospectus projects the Reds to win 78.8 games this season – which, for now, will consist of the usual 162 games. Win totals at William Hill will only be active if teams play at least 150 of those 162 games. The Reds haven't won more than 81.5 games since going 90-72 in 2013.
Last season, the book closed the Reds at Over/Under 31.5 wins in the 60-game shortened schedule. Cincinnati just missed going Over in finishing 31-29. That was enough to get the Reds into the expanded playoffs – no such format this year for now, but that could change – but were swept in the best-of-three wild card round in Atlanta, not scoring a single run in the two games. It was the first time ever Cincinnati was shut out in consecutive postseason games.
For the most part, the Reds' everyday lineup should be the same in 2021 – the team finished last in the majors with a .212 batting average but seventh in homers with 90, led by Eugenio Suarez's 15 (but he hit just .202 overall). There is a glaring hole at shortstop after Freddy Galvis wasn't brought back as a free agent.
Cincinnati definitely cut corners financially this offseason by trading former All-Star closer Raisel Iglesias to the Angels and non-tendering reliever Archie Bradley and catcher Curt Casali. The Reds didn't chase any major free agents and lost 2020 NL Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer to the Dodgers, but there was never any chance the Reds were going to be able afford bringing back Bauer.
The club still has two very good starting pitchers in Sonny Gray and Luis Castillo, although both of them were in trade rumors this offseason and both could be dealt if the team starts slowly.
Manager David Bell's club opens at home on April 1 vs. St. Louis, which is the +180 favorite at William Hill to win the NL Central. Cincinnati is next at +260. Spring training games start in Arizona and Florida on Sunday already.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it returned over $5,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks last season. The model is also up almost $8,700 on top-rated NBA picks over the past two-plus seasons. Dating back to last season, it enters Week 10 of the 2020-21 NBA schedule on a stunning 85-49 roll on top-rated NBA picks against the spread. Anybody who has followed it has seen HUGE returns.