Week 7 College Football odds, predictions: Parlay picks, best bets for SEC, Big Ten, ACC, Big 12, Pac-12 for the weekend of October 15th, 2022

In this day of advanced analytics in sports, I prefer to consider myself old school when it comes to evaluating teams and players and picking games. Sure, I'm all about history and trends but when it comes to evaluating teams, I like to use the most sure method -- the eye test. The start of this season has been tricky for me in that I've attended five games in the first six weeks of the regular season and haven't been able to watch many full games because of that. What can I say, I'm an Arizona Wildcats diehard and can't help myself! But with them having a road game and bye week before facing USC, likely for the final time (ever?) at Arizona Stadium, I'll have a chance to hopefully tune up my evaluations.

In the meantime, here is how I view the top 10 teams in the nation via the what I've seen with the eye test:

1. Ohio State: Just dominant in all phases of the ball, including on defense. With 24 touchdown passes already, it's no wonder C.J. Stroud is the odds-on favorite for the Heisman Trophy right now.

2. Georgia: The Bulldogs showed cracks in the armor a few weeks ago but rebounded well against Auburn. It's hard to imagine they aren't in the College Football Playoff final four, though an undefeated regular season might be a surprise.

3. Alabama: They're really good with or without Bryce Young. But this doesn't feel like a team that's going to run the table. 

4. Clemson: They haven't scored fewer than 30 points in a game this season. I haven't watched a ton of them but what I have seen is that quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei has made a huge jump from 2021. Beat FSU on the road this weekend and they would have to survive only a trip to Notre Dame for the chance at an undefeated regular season.

5. USC: On top of having a dominant offense, they lead the nation in turnover margin with a staggering +14. I'm not as bullish on their chances at Utah this weekend though.

6. Michigan: Sure, their offense has been really good. But who have they played? The schedule is incredibly weak outside of Penn State and Ohio State. They need a dominant win over the Nittany Lions to possibly jump a few teams on this list.

7. Tennessee: Speaking of amazing offenses, QB Hendon Hooker should join Stroud as a top Heisman contender. The win over LSU last weekend had me considering them in Clemson-USC range. If they somehow split Alabama and Georgia in the next few weeks, the Volunteers could be a CFP dark horse.

8. TCU: Fine, Oklahoma stinks and Kansas football is still Kansas football. But in terms of visually impressive teams, they have been it. The offense has been amazing and QB Max Duggan should also be on the midseason Heisman short list, though the real season starts this weekend against fellow undefeated Oklahoma State.

9. Oregon: Maybe I'm wrong in throwing away the 49-3 Georgia opening game debacle, but I was SO impressed watching this squad in person on Saturday night in Tucson. They haven't scored fewer than 41 points since and likely will continue that streak after a bye on 10/22 against currently undefeated UCLA.

10. Mississippi State: Yes, I've also seen them in person having watched their beat down of my Wildcats in early September. Outside of a bad loss to LSU where they melted down in the second half, the Bulldogs haven't played a close game yet. Road games at Kentucky and at Alabama in the next two weeks will either move them way up or way down.

A slightly disappointing 6-7-1 Week 6 means I now sit one game under .500. Unfortunately despite the fairly even record, I've only hit one conference parlay thus far. Fortunately Week 7 brings us plenty of opportunities for success with six matchups of ranked vs. ranked teams, including three matchups of undefeated teams (Penn State-Michigan, Alabama-Tennessee, Oklahoma State-TCU). I'll pick all three of those games to make the week that much more interesting. A lot of lines out there that might be parlay landmines but in order to improve the record, I'm taking some bold chances!

Once again, the purpose of this column each week is to find the best parlay bets by conference. I'll try to keep each wager between two and four picks, but the combined parlay of my favorite picks at the bottom of the column each week will be our lottery ticket. If we hit even just one of those all season, it should get us a guaranteed season profit.

All lines are from Caesars Sportsbook.

Make sure to check out Wildcat Country, my Arizona Wildcats podcast with co-host Shane Dale! New episodes out weekly.

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SEC parlay picks

Alabama-Tennessee Over 65
Vanderbilt-Georgia Over 58.5
Florida -2.5 vs. LSU
Parlay Odds: +596 (1 unit)

Tennessee +7.5 is such a heavy public play that I can't pull the trigger even though that's the side I would take. But there's also a chance Alabama is Alabama, cranks out 52 like they did last year, and the Vols are dead meat. Because I think the winner of this game will score at least 38, give me the over. Two of the last three years have seen numbers significantly higher than this total. Every Vandy game has reached the 58 point mark this season and Georgia put up 62 on them last year. A 48-14 game seems more probable than not. Last week I faded LSU against an SEC East team and I'm going to do it again. The Tigers aren't anything special and while Florida is like a roller coaster, I have a hard time seeing them not winning by at least a field goal. I wanted to pick the ranked vs. ranked Mississippi State vs. Kentucky game, but without knowing the status of UK QB Will Levis, I'll pass. If he plays, I'd take Kentucky +7 but won't include that officially for these picks.

Game Record: 1-2 last week, 8-10 overall
Conference Parlay Record: 1 of 6 overall (-0.29 units)

BIG TEN parlay picks

Penn State-Michigan Under 52.5
Illinois +6.5 vs. Minnesota
Indiana +11 vs. Maryland
Parlay Odds: +596 (1 unit)

In the last four meetings between Penn State and Michigan, no more than 49 total points has been scored. In a game with two good offenses, look for the defenses to shine. I could see a repeat of last year's Michigan 21-17 victory. Why is Minnesota favored against Illinois on the road? Who knows something that I don't? If the Illini are going to win, similar to last year's 14-6 matchup, they'll need to keep the Gophers' potent offense in check. Then again, Minnesota scored a bunch of points in its first four games against bad teams. I'm very much buying Bret Bielema's team, which should be 6-0 at this point. Indiana has won five of the last seven against Maryland and in the two losses, including last year, both games were decided by exactly three points. The Hoosiers may not win but the game should be within one score once again. I was impressed with how Indiana played Michigan extremely tough for three quarters last Saturday.

Game Record: 2-1 last week, 8-11 overall
Conference Parlay Record: 0 of 6 overall (-7.5 units)

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ACC parlay picks

Miami-Virginia Tech Over 46.5
Clemson -3.5 at Florida State
Parlay Odds: +264 (2 units)

Miami and Virginia Tech have both been wretched lately. But here are what their defenses have given up over those games: 17, 45, 27 (Miami), 33, 41, 45 (Virginia Tech). I think Miami wins with a score in the 30s and therefore this Over likely hits. I haven't been a big Florida State believer at all this season and while they covered last week against NC State, I think Clemson is playing too well to be slowed down by the Seminoles. This line is one of the fishy ones this week but talent prevails. The game might be close for three quarters, but the Tigers cover fairly easily in the end. 

Game Record: 1-2 last week, 9-9 overall
Conference Parlay Record: 0 of 6 overall (-7 units)

BIG 12 parlay picks

Kansas +8.5 at Oklahoma
TCU -3.5 vs. Oklahoma State
Parlay Odds: +264 (1.5 units)

The Sooners' defense has been absolutely dreadful of late and the offense, well, anemic doesn't quite sum it up without QB Dillon Gabriel. Fortunately for OU, Gabriel is likely to return this week but I still think this line is too much considering I've seen no proof of the Sooners slowing down a competent offense of late. Oklahoma wins but Kansas doesn't lose against the spread for the 10th straight time (last week's 7-point loss to TCU was a push). As you saw above, I'm buying more into the Horned Frogs than I am the Cowboys. If the game was in Stillwater I might think differently, but this isn't the week Sonny Dykes' team loses its first game. Frogs by 10. 

Game Record: 1-1-1 last week, 11-7-1 overall
Conference Parlay Record: 0 of 6 overall (-6 units)

PAC-12 parlay picks

Arizona-Washington Under 73
Utah -3.5 vs. USC
Oregon State -3.5 vs. Washington State
Parlay Odds: +596 (1 unit)

It's been painful watching my Wildcats try to play defense lately. Their run defense is in the bottom five in America and they've generally provided little resistance against competent offenses. Washington is the second-most prolific passing team in the country so points will definitely be scored in this game, but of the Huskies four games at home this season, none have exceeded the 70-point mark. I can see this being a 45-24 type of game with the under hitting just barely. Why does the line keep rising for Utah against USC? The Utes got whooped last week in Pasadena while the Trojans are still undefeated. As I like to say often, there's a reason the hotels are so big in Vegas. The Utes haven't lost at home since 2020, when the Trojans beat them during the abbreviated season. Other than that, it's been more than four years since Kyle Whittingham's team lost to anyone else in Salt Lake City. While 3.5 points is a lot to give, I'll lay the points and say the home team wins by a touchdown. Washington State has beaten the Beavers eight straight times but OSU is just a different animal (no pun intended) at home. Coming off the stunning last-second win over Stanford last week, I like the Beavers to beat a declining Cougars team and cover the 3.5.

Game Record: 1-1 last week, 9-9 overall
Conference Parlay Record: 0 of 6 overall (-8.5 units)

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Week 7 College Football parlay picks

Alabama-Tennessee Over 65
Vanderbilt-Georgia Over 58.5
Illinois +6.5 vs. Minnesota
Indiana +11 vs. Maryland
Clemson -3.5 at Florida State
Kansas +8.5 at Oklahoma
Utah -3.5 vs. USC

Parlay Odds: +9142 (0.5 units)
Weekly Parlay Record: 0 of 6 overall (-3 units)

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