While I'm not typically making major changes to my power ratings on a week-to-week basis unless key injuries (particularly at quarterback) call for it, I did make two major upgrades this week to the New York Jets and Cleveland Browns. It's hard to know what to expect from Deshaun Watson after he hasn't taken a snap since the 2020 season, but coming off a strong game against the Buccaneers, it's hard to make a case the Browns will be below-average moving forward. It's unlikely we'll even have confidence in their evaluation at this time next week with a matchup against the woeful Texans on deck.

Then we have the Jets, who benched 2021 No. 2 overall pick Zach Wilson for Mike White, an unheralded fifth-round pick of the Dallas Cowboys in 2018. Considering those pedigrees, it may be a stretch to consider White a clear upgrade on Wilson in terms of pure talent, but it's clear the second-year face of the franchise had lost the locker room and wasn't helping anyone by continuing to lead the offense. And while Wilson probably would've had his way with a terrible Bears defense this week as well, it's clear the quarterback change made a difference for the rest of the players on the field who now likely feel like they're a cohesive team.

With an elite defense in tow and an offense that's all moving in the same direction, the Jets have jumped from a below-average tier that last week included the Cardinals, Rams (before Mathew Stafford was ruled out) and Jaguars to an above-average tier with the Chargers and Titans. What that means is that the Zach Wilson version of this team would've been a pick 'em on a neutral field against a team like the Cardinals last week, but the Mike White version would be a pick 'em against the Chargers on a neutral field right now. Of course, judging by that Chargers-Cardinals game, maybe the gap between those two teams isn't as large as I have in my power ratings.

What are power ratings? Well, anyone who has followed football (or really any sport) for any length of time has encountered a power rankings list that projects teams from best to worst. Where power ratings for NFL betting differs is that you're affixing a point total to each team that tells you how much better or worse it is from an average team. For example, if you think the Browns are the midpoint of the league, their power rating would be a zero. If you think the Chargers are a little bit better, you might make them a +1. The Vikings may be another step above and worth a +2 rating. Going the other way, you may think the Cardinals are a -1 or -2 team (or even worse).

After you've rated all 32 teams in this fashion, you can take the difference between two teams in a scheduled matchup to determine what the line would be on a neutral field. In our example above, we'd say the Vikings should be favored by two points against the Browns on a neutral field. Then you add in home field advantage, which for a long time was considered three points as a standard but is actually lower on average in this era of football. I actually determine unique home field advantage totals for each team based on data from the last five years, and you can find my breakdown of this year's home-field advantage ratings here. I updated the HFA numbers of a few teams in my weekly workbook after six weeks and again after 12 weeks with a better understanding of which teams are good and bad, and which fan bases are likely to be more engaged than previously anticipated.

I've dived into each Week 13 game and evaluated my Week 13 power ratings to see what needed to be adjusted. I've also shared analysis of the most extreme differences between my projected lines and the market, as well as done the math to project the spread of every game based on my power ratings.

Which lines are several points off their power rating projections for Week 13? And which teams are being undervalued by the market? ... Join SportsLine right now to see Week 13 power ratings from the expert who's 445-378-24 on ATS picks from 2017-21, returning $2,542 to $100 players!