Titans vs. Colts spread, pick: DeForest Buckner's COVID absence big factor in Week 12 AFC South first-place game

The Tennessee Titans (7-3) haven't won the AFC South title since 2008 and the Indianapolis Colts (7-3) haven't since 2014, but Sunday's winner between the two from Indy will be in control of the division for the stretch run. The Colts are 3-point favorites on the William Hill Sportsbook NFL odds, but they will be without Pro Bowl defensive tackle DeForest Buckner as he's on the reserve/COVID-19 list.

One of the best trades of this past offseason was Indianapolis sending the No. 13 overall pick in the 2020 draft to San Francisco for Buckner, who was second-team All-Pro last year with the Niners and a Pro Bowler the year before. Buckner, who signed a huge extension with the Colts following the trade, has helped transform Indy's defense into one of the NFL's best.

The 26-year-old, who was the No. 7 overall pick in the 2016 draft out of Oregon, has 41 tackles (four for a loss) with 2.5 sacks, 16 quarterback hits, one forced fumble, one fumble recovery, one safety forced and a pass defensed. Pro Football Focus ranks him as the No. 5 overall interior defensive lineman in the league and No. 4 among them in terms of pass-rush grade.

Buckner is on track to be named All-Pro again but was placed on the COVID list Wednesday. The NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reported Friday morning that Buckner did indeed test positive so he will not be playing and must spend 10 days away from the team (thus he could be ready for Week 13). Teams are not allowed to disclose whether a player on the list is in quarantine or is positive for COVID-19, but it usually leaks out as it did here.

Needless to say, losing Buckner for any game would be huge but especially against the run-heavy Titans and Derrick Henry. He enters leading the NFL with 1,079 rushing yards, has put up at least 100 in back-to-back games, has hit triple digits in his past two vs. Indy and has rushed for at least 100 yards in seven straight road games.

In Week 10, the Colts won 34-17 in Nashville despite trailing 17-13 at the half. Henry got his 103 yards on 19 carries but wasn't a huge factor. The Tennessee special teams were a disaster, especially in the second half. Thus, should Indy sweep the season series Sunday, it would be a heavy favorite to win the AFC South. Indy is currently the -170 favorite at William Hill with the Titans +130.

Indianapolis remains the only team in the NFL to be favored in every game this season and is 6-4 ATS. The Colts are 4-1 ATS & SU in the past five in this series. 

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