SportsLine Projection Model reveals Hawks will miss Collins

Atlanta forward John Collins, a key piece in the Hawks' rebuilding efforts, was suspended without pay for 25 games on Tuesday for violating the terms of the NBA's drug policy. And while Collins might not be a household name yet, his suspension will have a big impact on Atlanta's victory total this season, according to the SportsLine Projection Model. 

Before the suspension, the Hawks were projected for 29.4 wins and a 35.9 winning percentage, according the SportsLine model. After the news, the victory total dropped 27.8 for a 33.9 win percentage. The 1.6 drop in wins over 25 games translates to 6.4 percent. Their chance of making the playoffs dropped from 0.8 percent to 0.4.   

Collins, in his third season after the Hawks took him with the 19th overall pick in the 2017 draft out of Wake Forest, has emerged as one of the best young power forwards in the league. He and Rookie of Year runner-up Trae Young combined to score 38.6 points per game last season to provide hope for Atlanta's fans. Collins led the Hawks with 19.5 points and 9.8 rebounds last season and added 2.0 assists. 

The 6-foot-9, 235-pound Collins was averaging 17 points this season and a team-high 8.8 rebounds and was shooting 47 percent from 3-point range. His best game this season was a 30-point, seven-rebound performance in a 112-97 loss at Miami on Oct. 29. Young was injured in that game and missed the next two, but he is expected to play Tuesday night. 

Collins said he will appeal the suspension, which takes effect for Tuesday's home game against the Spurs. He will be eligible to return Dec. 23 against the Cavaliers. 

"I understand the impact this matter has on what we are trying to achieve together this season, and I am incredibly frustrated and disappointed in myself for putting all us in this position," Collins said in statement released to ESPN. " I have always been incredibly careful about what I put in my body, but I took a supplement, which unbeknownst to me, had been contaminated with an illegal component." 

Collins is the third player to receive a 25-game suspension for a drug violation this season. 

Suns center Deandre Ayton was suspended after testing positive for a diuretic, and Nets forward Wilson Chandler was suspended for testing positive for Ipamorelin, a drug that increases the release of growth hormone.