Reds vs. Cubs Thursday MLB odds, props: Led by Jeimer Candelario, Cubbies can tie team record with third straight game scoring at least 15 runs

The Chicago Cubs acquiring switch-hitting infielder Jeimer Candelario from the Washington Nationals on Monday went a bit under-the-radar in terms of big moves ahead of the Trade Deadline, but no player moved this week has had a bigger impact on his new team so far. The Cubs have scored at least 15 runs in back-to-back games for only the third time in team history and can tie the franchise record tonight for consecutive 15-run games against the visiting Reds but are set at Over/Under 5.5 runs via DraftKings.

The Cubs lost the first game of the series 6-5 to the Reds on Monday but didn't have Candelario in the lineup yet with the trade being finalized, etc. On Tuesday, he was 4-for-5 with two runs scored in a 20-6 victory. More of the same Wednesday in a 16-6 victory as Candelario, in his second stint with the Cubs, was 4-for-4 with four runs scored. Candelario is the first Cub with back-to-back four-hit games since Anthony Rizzo in 2016, the year the Cubs won the World Series. Chicago's 36 combined runs are franchise's most over a two-game span in a single season since 1897.

While Candelario hasn't homered with his new team, the Cubs have hit 12 combined in the past two, the most in any two-game span in team history. The Cubs are the first MLB team to score at least 15 runs in back-to-back games since the 2019 Astros, and it's the first time Chicago has done it since 2003. The modern-era team record is three straight by the 1930 team as it scored 16 at home vs. Pittsburgh on June 1, 15 at Boston on June 3 and 18 in Boston on June 4.

The Chicago front office decided not to sell at the deadline and it has paid off. Since the All-Star break, the Cubs are an MLB-best 13-6 and lead the majors in runs (7.6 per game), batting average (.309) and OPS (.921). For a point of comparison, the No. 2 team in batting average since the break is St. Louis at .269. So there's essentially as much of a gap between the top two hitting teams since the break as there is between the No. 2 Cardinals and No. 26 Yankees (.228).

On July 21, the SportsLine Projection Model gave the Cubbies only a 4.3% shot at the playoffs. That's now 36.4% with the club three back of Cincinnati in the Central. DraftKings lists Chicago at +220 for the playoffs (31.3%) and no at -265.

While scoring 15 runs is obviously unlikely tonight, the Cubs do face wildly inconsistent Reds pitcher Luke Weaver (2-3, 6.80 ERA). He has been a bit better on the road (5.76 ERA), but at night anywhere his ERA is 7.38. Weaver hasn't faced the Cubbies this year, his first with Cincinnati. He last faced the Cubs in 2019 while with Arizona and is 3-4 with an 8.59 ERA career against them in seven starts.

Consider yes on a first-inning run scored as Weaver in the first this year has allowed 27 runs in .398 hitting in that inning compared to 40 runs allowed total after the first inning (.276). Candelario is 1-for-3 with a solo homer off him career. Cody Bellinger is 4-for-10 with two homers. 

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