Padres vs. Rockies Wednesday MLB probable pitchers, odds: Red-hot Joe Musgrove scratched for San Diego, replaced by opener Nick Martinez

If the Colorado Rockies were in playoff contention, they would have caught a massive break today with the news that the San Diego Padres have scratched ace right-hander and long-shot Cy Young contender Joe Musgrove for their matinee series finale in Denver and will go with Nick Martinez as a pseudo-opener instead. The Rockies are nowhere near a playoff team, though, and remain sizable underdogs but did "improve" from +200 to around +170 at Caesars Sportsbook with the pitching change.

Apparently, Musgrove (10-3, 3.05 ERA) is dealing with "minor" right shoulder soreness, but the team doesn't think it's anything major. If serious, that would be devastating less than 24 hours after the front office added several pieces ahead of the Trade Deadline to prove it is all-in for 2023. Musgrove hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in a start since May 20 and had a 1.45 ERA in July. He hadn't faced Colorado in 2023 and is +7000 to win the Cy. 

It's not clear how long Martinez might go as he has made four starts in his 46 appearances this season and is 4-4 with a 3.93 ERA. While the right-hander began the year in the rotation, he hasn't gone more than 2.1 innings since late May after a shift to the bullpen in late April. Martinez did pitch an inning in Monday's extra-inning loss in Denver, so it might be a one-inning limit today.

That defeat, incidentally, dropped San Diego to 0-10 in extra-inning games this year. They are the only team yet to win one and the 10 losses are the most. The Padres stink in one-run games overall at 6-18. Their .250 winning percentage is last in the majors.

It's lefty Kyle Freeland (4-11, 4.79 ERA) for Colorado. Over his past 11 starts, he holds a 6.31 ERA (55.2 IP, 39 ER) with 22 walks and 28 strikeouts. Freeland's 2.18 run support average over that span is the lowest in the majors. He is 7-6 with a 2.28 ERA in 111.1 career innings vs. the Padres and 1-0 with a 0.82 ERA in 11 innings this year.

Many San Diego hitters have good career splits off Freeland. Juan Soto isn't one of them at 4-for-23 but did homer twice on Tuesday and is warming up. It was his 15th career multi-homer game, tied for the  fifth-most in MLB history before turning 25. Soto hits 25 in late October. 

Most Multi-HR Games Before Turning 25

• Eddie Mathews 19
• Hal Trosky 18
• Mel Ott  17
• Bob Horner 17
• Willie Mays 15
• Boog Powell 15
• Bryce Harper  15
• Juan Soto 15

No lineup out yet for the Padres but at least one trade acquisition from Tuesday is expected to start: DH Garrett Cooper, formerly of the Marlins, as he should play against lefties and another DH-type acquisition, Ji Man Choi, against righties. It may be the Padres debut of former Royals closer Scott Barlow, also landed on Tuesday. GM AJ Preller was very busy.

At  53-55 and five games out of the NL's final wild card spot, San Diego is +250 to reach the postseason for a second straight year and -300 for no. 

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