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Packers vs. Browns lines, picks: Proven NFL model reveals picks for Week 16 Christmas Day matchup

SportsLine's projection model simulated the Week 16 game between Green Bay and Cleveland 10,000 times and revealed its results
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The Green Bay Packers will try to strengthen their hold on the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoff picture when they host the Cleveland Browns in an NFL Christmas Day 2021 matchup on Saturday. Green Bay (11-3) clinched the NFC North last week with a 31-30 triumph over Baltimore, while Cleveland (7-7) fell into last place in the AFC North after dropping a 16-14 decision to Las Vegas. Kickoff from Lambeau Field is set for 4:30 p.m. ET. Green Bay is a 7.5-point favorite in the latest Packers vs. Browns odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over-under for total points scored is 46.5.

Before making any Browns vs. Packers picks of your own, you NEED to check out the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. The model enters Week 16 of the 2021 season on an incredible 133-96 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is WAY UP.

The model knows Green Bay is the only team in the NFL with a perfect home record, as it has won all six of its games by a combined 184-102 score. Aaron Rodgers is looking to repeat as league MVP and is tied for fifth with 30 touchdown passes and needs one to pass Brett Favre (442) as the franchise leader. Wideout Davante Adams has hauled in a team-high eight of Rodgers' TD tosses this year and ranks third in the NFL with 1,248 receiving yards. 

The model also knows Cleveland hopes to have Baker Mayfield back under center after the starting quarterback. Nick Chubb gained 91 yards on 23 carries against Las Vegas to eclipse the 1,000-yard mark for the third consecutive season and climb into fourth place on this year's leaderboard.

Now, the model has set its sights on Packers vs. Browns. We can tell you it is leaning Under, and it also says one side of the spread cashes in more than 50 percent of simulations! You ABSOLUTELY need to see it before locking in any NFL picks.

Who wins Packers vs. Browns on Saturday? And which side of the spread hits more than 50 percent of the time? ... Join SportsLine right now to find out which side of the Browns vs. Packers spread you need to jump on, all from the model on a 133-96 roll on NFL picks

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SportsLine Staff