Just a 2-3 week in the contests as line value on the Vikings, Colts and Browns didn't matter at all. I mentioned that Broncos and Seahawks were two options I liked but avoided due to the line sitting at -3, and we're at the point now that a push is almost as good as a loss. Both teams wound up covering, so maybe that strategy wasn't the best. Still, we pick ourselves off the matt and look to turn a .500 record in the SuperContest (and a little better in the Circa Sports Million) into an unforgettable run into cashing in one of the biggest sports betting contests in the world.
I've been SportsLine's No. 1 NFL expert over the last four years, going 354-292-22 against the spread in particular during that stretch. I've also delivered a 57.1 percent hit rate on my SuperContest picks over the last six seasons, which is exactly what you're getting below. And that run includes two finishes in the money, including finishing 18th out of 2,748 entries back in 2017.
If you're a SportsLine subscriber, you can get all my picks, which in a typical NFL week number in the double digits, at the same time as I make them by downloading the app and signing up for alerts on my expert page. That's crucial, as you might not have access to the same lines from the Las Vegas contests, which don't move after they're posted mid-week. This week, I'm shaking off recent issues I've had picking AFC North games and laying the points in what I think is a severely mispriced game: the Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 vs. the Cleveland Browns.
I made a big adjustment up on the Bengals in my power ratings after their win over the Ravens two weeks ago, as I had started them well below zero and it had taken too long to get them to at least average. Despite getting caught in a sleepy spot against the Jets, I'm convinced a team with excellent offense weapons that's getting strong defensive play as well is good.
The Browns? Well, Baker Mayfield is still clearly not 100 percent, and key tackle Jack Conklin joined running back Kareem Hunt on injured reserve. The defense remains pretty beat up, and the team had to deal with the Odell Beckham distraction all week rather than put complete focus into preparing for a road game against a tough divisional rival.
The Browns offense hasn't looked good for most of the last month. They need to have success in the running game to put points on the board, but the Bengals defense ranks fifth in yards per rush allowed. Cincinnati has seen the most passing attempts against its defense in the league, yet ranks 10th in net yards per attempt allowed. Teams are throwing a ton against the Bengals, but their defense has mostly held up. I can't see the Browns throwing a ton, or scoring many points here.
Get the rest of my SuperContest picks and my Circa Million picks below.
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