Another mediocre week in the Circa Million means I'm probably too far back to cash unless I get a miracle, and I'm going to do my best to give myself a shot by taking a bunch of teams I don't think will be popular but who I actually like this week. Three offer poor line value in the market currently, one is a big enough favorite to scare people away and the last one has been getting faded all week, which we'll get into in this intro. I'll also post a caveat under my picks to say the five I would be playing if I was in a better position and just trying to pick up wins regardless of the leverage I believe is involved.

I've been SportsLine's No. 1 NFL against-the-spread expert over the last six years, going 535-450-30 against the spread to put me up more than 35 units on those picks at SportsLine since 2017. I've also delivered a 56.5% hit rate on my Vegas contest picks over the last eight seasons, which is exactly what you're getting below. And that run includes two finishes in the money, including finishing 18th out of 2,748 entries back in 2017.

If you're a SportsLine subscriber, you can get all my picks, which in a typical NFL week number can near double digits, at the same time as I make them by downloading the app and signing up for alerts on my expert page. That's crucial, as you might not have access to the same lines from the Las Vegas contests, which don't move after they're posted mid-week. This week, I'm backing a team I had last week that crumpled in the fourth quarter but still covered for me in the contest: the Chicago Bears -4 vs. the Arizona Cardinals.

The Cardinals are a team playing out the string, and I don't have much confidence in their defense showing up on the road in this spot. They've allowed 400-plus yards in three of their last four games, and the spot where they had success was against a team starting Mitchell Trubisky at QB. Even with the Bears offense dealing with injuries around the starting unit, they'll be able to put up points against a defensive unit that ranks 31st in points per drive allowed.

And I've been banging the drum for weeks about the Bears' improvement on the defensive side of the ball, where the pass defense has stepped up and the run defense is one of the best in the league. That means we can expect them to limit the Arizona rushing attack, which is the one place the Cardinals have had some success this year, and force a passing game that's without Marquise Brown to throw, throw and throw some more (presumably mostly to Trey McBride).

This feels like a spot where the Cardinals struggle to get out of the mid-teens while the Bears soar past 20 points and cover, which is why I'm surprised the market has been fading Chicago and backing the Cardinals, bringing this line down from Bears -4.5 earlier in the week. I'm hoping it gets down even further to 3.5 before picks are due for the Circa Million, because that would likely scare even more people away from Chicago this week.

Get the rest of my Vegas contest picks for Week 16 below.

So which teams should you back in Week 16? Which NFL survivor pool pick should you make? And which underdogs could win outright?... Join SportsLine right now to see who you should back in Week 16, all from the expert who has crushed the world's most prestigious handicapping tournament!