We've been taking our lumps lately with a run of bad luck, bad beats and suspect coaching going against us. Even when we have games pegged across the board, ridiculous timeouts, ridiculous fumbles and ridiculous play calling keeps us humble.

So we're reeling it back in this week. There's too much variance and too many people cracking under the playoff pressure. Even with a declining inventory, it's time for me to throttle down.

Before you make any Week 16 picks, you'll want to see what NFL insider Jason La Canfora has to say. La Canfora has taken an early look at the games and found a number of best bets and lines to keep an eye on. One of the matchups he's monitoring? Saints at Rams, which offers value right now. You NEED to see his analysis before locking in any NFL picks of your own.

Jason also has a slate of best bets for tonight's Monday Night Football action, which we'll share below.

• More Week 16 picks: Model 

Which lines are worth jumping on right now, and what are the best plays for Monday Night Football? Join SportsLine right now to see all Jason La Canfora's NFL Week 16 betting primer!