A great recent run in the SuperContest comes to an end after an ugly Week 13 in which the Jets severely outperformed the Vikings in the box score but couldn't manage a cover, while the Ravens lost their starting quarterback early in the game and turned to a backup dealing with flu-like symptoms before kickoff who ultimately rallied back to get the win but failed to cover the big number. Then you have the Bears, who played a tight game with the Packers the entire way only to give up a 46-yard touchdown run to a receiver with less than two minutes left to finish outside the number. Sometimes you catch the breaks, sometime the breaks catch you.

We move on to an abbreviated Week 14 card with six teams on bye and starting quarterback changes rampant around the league with Brock Purdy, Tyler Huntley and Davis Mills in line to start and Deshaun Watson potentially still getting his sea legs under him. We also have to watch how high the Texans-Cowboys, Jets-Bills and Chiefs-Broncos lines close after trending upward all week.

I've been SportsLine's No. 1 NFL ATS expert over the last five years, going 445-378-24 against the spread to put me up more than 25 units on those picks at SportsLine. I've also delivered a 56.8% hit rate on my SuperContest picks over the last seven seasons, which is exactly what you're getting below. And that run includes two finishes in the money, including finishing 18th out of 2,748 entries back in 2017.

If you're a SportsLine subscriber, you can get all my picks, which in a typical NFL week number can near double digits, at the same time as I make them by downloading the app and signing up for alerts on my expert page. That's crucial, as you might not have access to the same lines from the Las Vegas contests, which don't move after they're posted mid-week. This week, I'm backing a team with one of the backup quarterbacks mentioned above: the Baltimore Ravens +2.5 at the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The Steelers have won three of their four games since the bye, with the only loss coming against one of the hottest teams in the NFL in the Bengals. The rush offense has been key to Pittsburgh's success, but it'll be up against a very strong Ravens run defense that ranks third in yards per attempt allowed and hasn't given up 100 yards on the ground since Week 7. That could put the game more in Kenny Pickett's hands, and he's completed more than 60% of his passes just once during the last four games while managing to avoid turnovers with the rush offense playing well. I expect the Ravens defense to be the best unit on the field in this matchup.

On offense, the Ravens have to rely on Tyler Huntley, who didn't perform well last week. But he was playing a quality Denver defense that ranks second in points per game allowed, and it turns out he was doing it while managing flu-like symptoms. We got to see Huntley last year and he performed well enough in all his starts to keep the Ravens within three points in every game, even two against a pair of the NFC's top teams in the Packers and Rams. It's possible he's the better quarterback in this matchup in this moment, and even if he's not, the Ravens defense should give him enough help on the other side of the ball to get Baltimore the win.

Get the rest of my SuperContest picks and my Circa Million picks below.

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