I missed an opportunity to bank two wins this week by not entering either contest card early, as I liked the Lions and Vikings to cover on Thanksgiving. While I always avoid putting Thursday games on my cards in order to get more information on injuries for my other four picks each week, Thanksgiving is the one week where having three games available means there's an opportunity to reduce the effect of that uncertainty by including multiple Thursday games.

The Lions were one of my top picks this week, and in a contest where you're not required to commit to the rest of your picks if you use a Thursday game, I backed them and got the win. With how competitive they've been over the last few weeks, I thought making them 9.5-point home underdogs against anyone was far-fetched, and it's not like the Bills have been firing on all cylinders recently. The Vikings' injuries at cornerback made me less confident in them as a pick, which is why I ultimately passed, but they managed to get it done despite offering little resistance to a Patriots passing game that hasn't impressed this season.

I've been SportsLine's No. 1 NFL ATS expert over the last five years, going 445-378-24 against the spread to put me up more than 25 units on those picks at SportsLine. I've also delivered a 56.8 percent hit rate on my SuperContest picks over the last seven seasons, which is exactly what you're getting below. And that run includes two finishes in the money, including finishing 18th out of 2,748 entries back in 2017.

If you're a SportsLine subscriber, you can get all my picks, which in a typical NFL week number can near double digits, at the same time as I make them by downloading the app and signing up for alerts on my expert page. That's crucial, as you might not have access to the same lines from the Las Vegas contests, which don't move after they're posted mid-week. This week, I'm backing at least one team that's going through a quarterback change: the Carolina Panthers +2.5 vs. the Denver Broncos.

The Panthers are turning back to Sam Darnold with Baker Mayfield going 1-5 as a starter and failing to generate any offense last week against the Ravens. We saw enough of Darnold last year to know he's not the answer either, but he did have more success in his first three starts of 2021 than Mayfield has had all season, and it's possible he clicks with OC Ben McAdoo and takes advantage of a Broncos defense coming off its worst game of the year against the Raiders. But this pick is more about fading the Broncos, a team that should not be favored on the road against anybody. In fact, Denver is now only favored by one point in the market, so this contest line offers plenty of value that I'm going to take advantage of, even though it means backing one of the worst teams in the league.

Get the rest of my SuperContest picks and my Circa Million picks below.

So which teams should you back in Week 12? And which underdogs could win outright?... Join SportsLine right now to see who you should back in Week 12, all from the expert who keeps crushing the world's most prestigious handicapping tournament!