NFL Week 11 picks: Bears stay frisky, and more against the spread best bets from Las Vegas SuperContest expert
We're coming off a week in which we nailed all three shared picks on our two contests cards, including the Dolphins with an easy cover on an oddly mispriced line that we delved into at the top of last week's column. Unfortunately, we hit just one of the other four picks on the two cards, so it was just a good week rather than an incredible one.
This week is going to be much more difficult to pick, with several lines correctly hovering around 3 and now two neutral-site games on the card after the Browns-Bills matchup was moved to Detroit due to extreme weather conditions in the Buffalo area. Throw in injury concerns for several teams that would otherwise likely be popular plays such as the Eagles and Chiefs, and it's hard to anticipate which picks the market will coalesce around and react accordingly.
I've been SportsLine's No. 1 NFL ATS expert over the last five years, going 445-378-24 against the spread to put me up more than 25 units on those picks at SportsLine. I've also delivered a 56.8 percent hit rate on my SuperContest picks over the last seven seasons, which is exactly what you're getting below. And that run includes two finishes in the money, including finishing 18th out of 2,748 entries back in 2017.
If you're a SportsLine subscriber, you can get all my picks, which in a typical NFL week number can near double digits, at the same time as I make them by downloading the app and signing up for alerts on my expert page. That's crucial, as you might not have access to the same lines from the Las Vegas contests, which don't move after they're posted mid-week. This week, I'm backing a team with a budding star at QB that is nonetheless having trouble winning games: the Chicago Bears +3 at the Atlanta Falcons.
The Bears are the first since at least 1940 to rush for 230 yards in five straight games, and the 10th team to put together a streak of at least five 200-plus yard games on the ground, though none have done it since 1976. The other nine teams went 48-4-2 during their streaks, while Chicago is just 1-4 while piling up insane rushing totals. Part of that is due to the offensive landscape being far different in 2022 than it was in the 1970s and prior, and part of that is due to how bad the Bears defense is, especially after trading away Roquan Smith and Robert Quinn. But with Fields starting to turn into Lamar Jackson 2.0, he's a guy I like backing when catching points, especially against bad teams.
The Falcons qualify as a bad team to me, one that is terrible defending the pass and getting sacks, which should open things up in the passing game for Fields. The question is whether the Atlanta offense can take advantage of a great matchup against the awful Chicago defense, but they've underperformed the last few weeks in what should've been better matchups, so I'm not just going to pencil in 30-plus for this team in this matchup like we saw with the Lions against Chicago last week. The Falcons have had one of the worst home-field advantages in the league in recent years as well, so I think we're getting nice value catching the full field goal in this matchup.
Get the rest of my SuperContest picks and my Circa Million picks below.
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