The NFL is back in action after months of anticipation, with the Detroit Lions pulling off an upset against the defending champions, a depleted Kansas City Chiefs team missing its two best non-quarterback players, on Thursday. More upsets are surely in line for the rest of Week 1's action, which kicks off at 1 p.m. ET with matchups like Bengals vs. Browns, 49ers vs. Steelers and Titans vs. Saints. Three rookie QBs all selected in the top five picks are all set to take their first regular-season snaps in the 1 p.m. ET window as well.

Picking against the spread in Week 1 has its positives and negatives. On the negative side, since these lines have been out for months, sharp bettors have been betting into the Week 1 spreads over a long period of time, likely making them the most efficient numbers we're going to see all season for those who didn't jump on the best numbers back in May. But on the positive side, the market knows less about all 32 teams in Week 1 than it will all year.

At this time last year, the Colts were seven-point favorites in Houston after coming into the season as clear AFC South favorites. The Broncos were 6.5-point favorites in Seattle on Monday Night Football with excitement bubbling over Russell Wilson in Denver. The Buccaneers smoked the Cowboys in Dallas, but they certainly failed to live up to preseason expectations as the season wore along. Bettors who correctly identified the Colts (3-6 ATS in first nine), Broncos (1-4 ATS in first five) and Bucs (3-13-1 ATS after Week 1) as overrated made a lot of money fading those teams throughout the year.

I've been SportsLine's No. 1 NFL against-the-spread expert over the last six years, going 535-450-30 against the spread to put me up more than 35 units on those picks at SportsLine since 2017. I've also delivered a 56.5% hit rate on my Vegas contest picks over the last eight seasons, which is exactly what you're getting below. And that run includes two finishes in the money, including finishing 18th out of 2,748 entries back in 2017.

If you're a SportsLine subscriber, you can get all my picks, which in a typical NFL week number can near double digits, at the same time as I make them by downloading the app and signing up for alerts on my expert page. That's crucial, as you might not have access to the same lines from the Las Vegas contests, which don't move after they're posted mid-week. This week, I'm fading a market move and playing a great early-season home team: the Denver Broncos -3.5 vs. the Las Vegas Raiders.

This line is either shaded to the Raiders at 3.5 or even available at Broncos -3 in the market, so I don't expect it to be a popular play in the contest as we're not getting a good number. That's not going to stop me from backing what I feel is a much better team with a clear coaching mismatch. On the latter, Josh McDaniels failed to live up to the hype in his first season in Las Vegas, and considering the situation with key pass rusher Chandler Jones being away from the team to start the year, it's possible McDaniels is already on thin ice in the locker room. While the Raiders brought in key pass-catching talent in the offseason, they downgraded at QB with Jimmy Garoppolo, someone who on the surface might not be a great fit for this offense. And a team with great secondary talent like the Broncos can handle the Raiders' set of pass-catchers.

The line is likely moving away from Denver due to the likely absence of star receiver Jerry Jeudy, and while that is a big loss, the Broncos have enough depth at receiver and tight end to still have a functional passing game against an awful Raiders defense. So it comes down to whether Russell Wilson is more the quarterback from his first nine seasons or the diasappointment we saw last year. Future Hall of Fame coach Sean Payton obviously thought Wilson was salvageable, coming out of retirement to take over this team. And Wilson should be in a position to succeed with two quality running backs to lean on and an easy matchup to start the year. Then you get to the Broncos having an elite home-field advantage earlier in the year when teams aren't fully conditioned, and they could win this one running away despite the low spread.

Get the rest of my Vegas contest picks below, along with my large-format survivor pool play for Week 1.

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