With the much-anticipated NFL Draft now in the books, football observers everywhere are now curious about how the rookies will fare when they take the field.
Sportsbooks have gotten in on the action with prop bets regarding who will have the best individual performances. Bovada has offered odds on which player will win Offensive Rookie of the Year honors.
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| Odds To Win 2017 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year (courtesy of Bovada) | |
| Player | Odds |
| Leonard Fournette | 7/2 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 5/1 |
| Deshaun Watson | 6/1 |
| Dalvin Cook | 8/1 |
| Corey Davis | 8/1 |
| DeShone Kizer | 12/1 |
| Joe Mixon | 12/1 |
| Jamaal Williams | 12/1 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 14/1 |
| O.J. Howard | 16/1 |
| Kareem Hunt | 20/1 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 20/1 |
| Curtis Samuel | 20/1 |
Let's take a look at the wagering menu and analyze the candidates:
Leonard Fournette, Jaguars (7/2): The highly touted prospect from LSU is sure to get plenty of chances to help what was one of the worst rushing offenses in the NFL last season (No. 22), and relieve pressure from QB Blake Bortles in the process. But Fournette already has a history of injuries, and he faltered against top competition in college, with just 66 yards combined in two games against Alabama. No value here.
Christian McCaffrey, Panthers (5/1): The Panthers were in need of dynamic playmakers and they appear to have found one in McCaffrey, the versatile, record-setting back from Stanford. But Carolina managed a top-10 rushing offense by committee last year, and there’s no guarantee McCaffrey will immediately get the bulk of the carries. He could be in the race, but I’m not wild about this price.
Deshaun Watson, Texans (6/1): I believe Watson is the most NFL-ready quarterback taken in the draft, and he’s joined a team that desperately needs one. There’s a good chance he will start all 16 games and, although he could have predictable rough patches, I expect him to be effective. He’s worth a wager with these odds.
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Dalvin Cook, Vikings (8/1): The early clubhouse leader for Steal of the Draft will immediately get a chance to show his wares with a Minnesota team that was deadly last in the NFL in rushing (1,205) and is taking its first step in the post-Adrian Peterson era. Cook's versatility will be put to use immediately, and he should get enough opportunities to put up big numbers. Good value pick.
Corey Davis, Titans (8/1): Davis is widely regarded as the best receiver prospect in recent memory, and he will have a chance to help the Titans improve from the No. 25-ranked pass offense it registered last season. But QB Marcus Mariota averaged just 7.6 yards per attempt last season, suggesting a limited ability to throw downfield. Given the attention Davis will draw from opposing secondary units, I can’t see him putting up big enough numbers to contend for the award.
DeShone Kizer, Browns (12/1): I liked most of what the Browns did in the draft, with the exception of this selection. I thought they would have been better off staying at the No. 12 slot and selecting Watson, to go along with top overall pick Myles Garrett and thus transforming both sides of the ball with franchise players. Kizer was inconsistent and immature and Notre Dame, and is the proverbial “upside” prospect who will take time to develop. I don’t think he will see the field enough, nor produce the numbers necessary to contend.
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Joe Mixon, Bengals (12/1): Mixon might be the best pure runner in the draft, and his off-field issues made him a potential steal in the second round. Even so, he will likely at best split carries with starter Jeremy Hill, who is one of the more powerful rushers in the NFL and is still just 24 years old. Mixon is a pass for this wager.
Jamaal Williams, Packers (12/1): Williams quietly had a record-setting career at BYU and was one of the top running backs in the country last season. He couldn’t have found a better landing spot for his services, as he will almost certainly be the top rushing option for Green Bay come opening day. He’s worth a look at this price.
Mike Williams, Chargers (12/1): Williams was known for his great hands and big-play delivery while teaming with Watson to win a national title at Clemson. But his ability to separate against NFL defenders has been questioned. An aging Philip Rivers tossed 21 INTs last year and went downfield with less frequency.
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Mitchell Trubisky, Bears (14/1): The polarizing North Carolina product was a surprise pick by the Bears at No. 2 for a variety of reasons. Not the least of which was that Chicago had already given free agent Mike Glennon a lucrative contract to be its signal-caller for the upcoming season. It will be a long time before we know whether the gamble on Trubisky was worth it, and we won’t find out this year because it’s unlikely he will see the field much.
O.J. Howard, Buccaneers (16/1): The rock-solid tight end from Alabama was noted for his consistency and huge performances in two championship games. He should be a solid addition to a potent Bucs offense, but they already have a solid pass-catching tight end in Cameron Brate. Little chance Howard contends for the award.
Kareem Hunt, Chiefs (20/1): As major long shots are concerned, Hunt is the most likely to provide a real sweat for your wagered dollars. The multi-dimensional back tore up MAC defenses for one of the most productive offenses in the country at Toledo. He has the physical stature and skill set of a poor man's Jamaal Charles, and could be asked to immediately fill the role of his predecessor.
Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs (20/1): It's absurd that Mahomes got drafted ahead of Watson as somehow became the draft’s flavor of the month at just the right time. He showed a great arm and physical toughness in college, but played in a conference that offers little in the way of resistance. Moreover, the next Texas Tech quarterback to succeed in the NFL will be the first. The Texas Tech bias isn't Mahomes' fault, but I'd still be stunned if he becomes the pioneer who breaks the stereotype.
Curtis Samuel, Panthers (20/1): Like McCaffrey, Samuel fits Carolina's need for big-play performers at the skill positions and he could immediately become the favorite target of Cam Newton. It's unlikely a receiver will win this award, but Samuel might be the top candidate at his position.
