NBA Restart: Important storylines for NBA DFS

It has been four months since we've seen regular season NBA action, and a lot has changed during that time. Whether due to injury, COVID-related complications, or Orlando bubble-violations, star players around the league are going to miss at least some of the eight-game restart regular season schedule.

SportsLine's NBA DFS expert Jacob Gibbs has been closely monitoring the changing circumstances surrounding each team and has seven important storylines to maximize upon in DFS during the early stages of the restart.

The new-look Washington Wizards

Washington will be without Bradley Beal and Davis Bertans, who ranked first and second on the team in scoring during the regular season. Beal ranked second in the entire NBA in frontcourt touches per game, which is one of the most predictive NBA DFS stats available.

Without Beal, this offense will look completely different. The players below are the ones I'll be most focused on for DFS purposes:

Troy Brown Jr. ($4,700 on DraftKings for Friday's slate) -- Brown and Jerome Robinson ($4,200) are most likely to be the catalyst of Washington's half court offense, and both are underpriced heading into Friday's slate. Robinson has a higher usage rate (27.3 percent) than Brown (23.6 percent) during the scrimmages, but Brown is the more polished player and we have seen him play at a high level without Beal on the court. He's my top target from Washington at his current price tag.

Shabazz Napier ($5,700) -- Napier will start at point guard and likely lead the Wizards in total touches. He has been an efficient per-minute producer when given the opportunity over the past few seasons, and we saw him average a strong 1.24 DraftKings points per minute (DK PPM) without Beal on the court in a small sample size earlier this season.

Rui Hachimura ($7,400) -- Hachimura ranks among the top-three Wizards in usage and rebounding rate during the scrimmages and will join Brown as one of the few players from Washington we can trust to see 30-plus minutes each night. There are better values available at the moment, but Hachimura still has the ability and role to exceed value at this price.

The James Harden show

Russell Westbrook is expected to be eased into action, while Mike D'Antoni has noted that James Harden could push for 38-40 minutes per game during the eight-game restart. In case you don't believe him, the fact that Harden leads the entire NBA in minutes played during the scrimmages is evidence in itself.

Harden averaged 59.2 DraftKings points in 36.4 minutes per game this season, so a further bump in playing time makes him a value at any price tag under $12,000. It's also worth pointing out that Harden's already insane 1.57 DK PPM rose to 1.69 in minutes played without Clint Capela this season. He will be a nightly triple-double threat while playing close to 40 minutes in Houston's uptempo and small-ball system.

Joel Embiid's minutes

Like Harden, Joel Embiid is expected to see his minutes ramped up for the eight-game restart. Brett Brown said he'd like to see Embiid play 38 minutes per night, which is way above his 30.2 average from this season. In games Embiid has played 35-plus minutes this season, he's averaged 32.1 points, 15.5 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks. I am skeptical that he'll actually see that type of workload, but it is worth monitoring nonetheless.

Indiana's offense without Domantas Sabonis

While the Pacers got some good news in that Victor Oladipo is going to be able to play for the restart, they will be without their offensive centerpiece in Domantas Sabonis. Sabonis ranked third in the NBA in frontcourt touches during the regular season, and his absence presents major opportunity for Myles Turner, Oladipo, and Malcolm Brogdon.

Brogdon was unbelievable to start the season for Indiana but labored through injury over the second-half of the year. Now healthy, he is set to take on a starring role for the Pacers. He has led the team in usage rate during the scrimmages, and his 1.25 DK PPM mark with Sabonis off the court leads the way for Indiana.

The Pacer who saw the largest boost with Sabonis off the court this season was Turner, whose usage rate skyrocketed from 17.8 percent to 24.1 percent. Turner's 1.17 DK PPM without Sabonis on the court is the second-highest mark for the Pacers, and he could be a real DFS value in the early restart games.

Brooklyn's frontcourt

All of the attention will go to Brooklyn's Caris LeVert, and rightfully so -- he averaged 1.40 DK PPM and had an insane 38.5 percent usage rate in 327 minutes without Kyrie Irving or Spencer Dinwiddie on the court this season. He's drastically underpriced at just $7,800 for Friday's games and will likely be the most highly-owned player on the slate.

Don't forget about the Nets big men though, as Brooklyn also is missing De'Andre Jordan, Taurean Prince, and Wilson Chandler for the restart. Jarrett Allen averaged 1.08 DK PPM this season and is going to have to play 30-plus minutes per night without any other real options at the five. Allen averaged 14.2 points, 11.2 rebounds, and 2.2 blocks in games he played 30-plus minutes this season and will be a value at any price under $7k.

Perhaps the best value on the Nets entering Friday's action is Rodions Kurucs, who is set to play close to 30 minutes per night at power forward. Kurucs has averaged 13.3 points, 5 rebounds, 1.7 steals, and 1 block in 22 minutes during the scrimmages and is a plug-and-play option at just $3,300.

Portland's defense

The Blazers will be without one of their few capable defenders in Trevor Ariza, and Carmelo Anthony is going to slide down to the three spot as a result. The Blazers ranked 27th in defensive efficiency this season, and they will compete with Washington as the worst defensive unit in the NBA restart with Melo at the three and a potential starting frontcourt featuring both Jusuf Nurkic and Hassan Whiteside. That team is going to be run off the court by teams like the young Memphis Grizzlies, who draw Portland in their first game.

San Antonio's youth movement

The Spurs will be without its starting frontcourt for the restart, as both LaMarcus Aldridge and Trey Lyles are sidelined. Jakob Poeltl averaged 1.13 DK PPM without Aldridge on the court this season and will presumably play around 30 minutes per night as the team's only dependable big man.

DeMar DeRozan saw his usage rate rise to 30 percent without LMA on the court this season, but I worry that San Antonio may limit his playing time without any real playoff aspirations. Aside from him, the other two Spurs who figure to be heavily involved are young guards Dejounte Murray and Derrick White. Both had a usage rate above 23 percent in the scrimmages and have the ability to contribute on both sides of the ball. Murray averaged 1.16 DK PPM with LMA off the court this season, while White averaged 0.96.